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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Indicator Analysis of EUR/USD on March 5, 2024



Today, the price may move downward from the level of 1.0854 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) to test the historical support level at 1.0836 (blue dotted line). After that, an upward movement is possible to the 38.2% pullback level at 1.0864 (red dotted line), where the price may continue to rise. Alternatively, from the level of 1.0854 (closing of yesterday's daily candle), the price may move downward to test the 76.4% pullback level at 1.0842 (blue dotted line). After that, an upward movement is possible to the 38.2% pullback level at 1.0864 (red dotted line), where the price may continue to rise.







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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD. Analysis for March 6th. The dollar is on the verge of a new decline

The wave analysis of the 4-hour chart for the EUR/USD pair remains unchanged. Over the past year, we have seen only three-wave structures of a larger scale that constantly alternate with each other. Currently, the construction of another three-wave structure is continuing - a downtrend that began on July 18 of last year. The presumed wave 1 is complete; wave 2 or b has become more complex three or four times but is now also complete as the decline of the pair has been ongoing for more than two months. 

The upward trend section may still resume, but its internal structure will be absolutely unreadable in this case. I remind you that I try to highlight clear and unambiguous wave structures that do not tolerate dual interpretations. If the current wave analysis is correct, the market has moved on to form wave 3 or c. Currently, presumably, wave 2 in 3 or c is being built. If this is indeed the case, an unsuccessful attempt to break the 61.8% Fibonacci level may indicate the completion of this wave. At the same time, this wave can take on a distinctly three-wave form. In any case, this decline in the quotes of the pair should not be completed. 

Alternatively, wave analysis may become significantly more complicated. The exchange rate of the EUR/USD pair rose by 15 basis points on Wednesday. Every day I say the same thing: market activity is currently so low that all price changes can be ignored. In addition to low market activity, the pair has been in a horizontal movement between Fibonacci levels 76.4% and 61.8% for over two weeks. Wave 2 in 3 or c may take on a three-wave form, implying a breakthrough of the 1.0881 mark. If this happens, the American currency may depreciate even more. However, there is no need to worry about this. Correctional waves often take on a three-wave form, so it can be said that everything is going according to plan. 

Today, as well as Thursday and Friday, will be crucial for the American currency. In a couple of hours in America, reports on job vacancies and the number of new employees in the non-agricultural sector will be released, and Jerome Powell will speak in the US Congress. Tomorrow is another Powell speech, and the day after tomorrow is the nonfarm payrolls and unemployment reports. And this is not counting the ECB meetings and Christine Lagarde's speeches. Everything indicates that the last three working days of the week should be fiery. 

For the current wave analysis to be preserved, at least not all of these events should increase demand for the euro. If at least half of the reports favor the dollar, and Lagarde and Powell do not change their previously voiced rhetoric, the dollar may depreciate within the wave plan. And then move on to building wave 3 in 3 or c. If this wave starts today or tomorrow, I'm fine with that too. I continue to consider only selling the pair.

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Indicator Analysis of GBP/USD on March 11, 2024

Open trading account Open demo account Deposit money Money withdrawal Open trading account Open demo account Trend analysis (Fig. 1). The GBP/USD currency pair may move downward from the level of 1.2855 (closing of Friday's daily candlestick) to the 14.6% pullback level at 1.2837 (yellow dotted line). From there, an upward movement is possible to the upper fractal at 1.2892 (yellow dotted line). Fig. 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive analysis: Indicator analysis down; Fibonacci levels down; Volumes down; Candlestick analysis down; Trend analysis up; Bollinger bands up; Weekly chart up. General conclusion: Today, the price may move downward from the level of 1.2855 (closing of Friday's daily candlestick) to the 14.6% pullback level at 1.2837 (yellow dotted line). From there, an upward movement is possible to the upper fractal at 1.2892 (yellow dotted line). Alternatively, from the level of 1.2855 (closing of Friday's daily candle), the price may move downward to the 23.6% pullback level at 1.2804 (yellow dotted line). From there, an upward movement is possible to the upper fractal at 1.2892 (yellow dotted line).

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Indicator Analysis of GBP/USD on March 13, 2024

Today, the price may move upward from the level of 1.2789 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) to the 14.6% pullback level at 1.2837 (yellow dotted line). In the case of testing this level, a continued upward movement is possible to the historical resistance level at 1.2847 (blue dotted line). Alternatively, from the level of 1.2789 (closing of yesterday's daily candle), the price may move upward to the 14.6% pullback level at 1.2837 (yellow dotted line). In the case of testing this level, a downward movement is possible to the historical resistance level at 1.2772 (blue dotted line).

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD. March 15th. The bears have launched a long-awaited offensive

The EUR/USD pair made a new reversal in favor of the American currency on Thursday and resumed its downward movement after closing below the ascending trend channel. Thus, the decline in quotes may continue down to the Fibonacci level of 38.2%1.0866. A rebound of the pair's rate from this level will benefit the European currency and may lead to some growth towards the corrective level of 50.0%1.0918. Consolidation of quotes below 1.0866 will increase the pair's chances of further decline towards the next corrective level of 23.6%1.0801.

The wave situation remains quite clear. The last completed upward wave confidently broke the peak of the previous wave (from February 22). Thus, we currently have a "bullish" trend, and there are no signs of its completion. Currently, a new downward wave is beginning to form but to determine a shift in sentiment to "bearish," a breakthrough of zone 1.07851.0801 is required. Until this moment, we observe only a corrective wave, after which the "bullish" trend may resume. The waves are currently quite large, but daily trader activity is not at its highest level. I believe that the support zone of 1.07851.0801 is a good target for traders. The news background on Thursday was interesting. We learned that retail sales volumes in the US turned out to be slightly below market expectations, but at the same time, the Producer Price Index surged by 0.6% in February, which does not bode well for the US economy as inflation may continue to rise, as it did in February. However, such a value is positive for the American currency, as the Fed may now adhere to a hawkish policy longer than traders expect. At the same time, the ECB may start easing monetary policy as early as June.

Forecast for EUR/USD and trader recommendations: Sales of the pair were possible upon a rebound from the level of 1.0959 on the 4-hour chart, with targets at 1.0918 and 1.0866. The first target has been hit, and the second one may be hit today. New sales are possible upon closing below the level of 1.0866 with a target of 1.0801. Buying the pair is possible upon a rebound from the level of 1.0866 on the hourly chart with targets at 1.0918 and 1.0959. Or upon a rebound from the lower line of the channel on the 4-hour chart.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Overview of the GBP/USD pair. March 19th. Ahead of the Fed meeting

The GBP/USD pair broke out of the flat and attempted to resume the uptrend. But we still expect a resumption of the downward movement with targets at 1.2543 and 1.2512. The market still very reluctantly buys the dollar and sells the pound, completely ignoring the fundamental and macroeconomic background. This week, it can easily interpret the received information in favor of the pound, even if it is in favor of the dollar. Formally, long positions can be considered when the price is above the moving average, but now the long-awaited consolidation below the moving average has occurred. Therefore, we support any sales of the pair. Explanations for the illustrations: Linear regression channels - help determine the current trend. If both are pointing in the same direction, it means the trend is currently strong. The moving average line (settings 20.0, smoothed) - determines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should be conducted now. Murray levels - target levels for movements and corrections. Volatility levels (red lines) - the probable price channel in which the pair will spend the next day, based on current volatility indicators. CCI indicator - its entry into oversold territory (below -250) or overbought territory (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal towards the opposite direction is approaching.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Analysis and trading tips for EUR/USD on March 21




Analysis of transactions and tips for trading EUR/USD Further growth became limited because the test of 1.0857 occurred during the sharp rise of the MACD line from zero. Then, a good market movement arose after the Fed's decision, bringing around 50 pips of profit. The Fed said they would stick to their path of reducing interest rates even though they encountered obstacles on the way to low and stable inflation. This led to a decline in dollar and purchases of euro. The upward trend in EUR/USD will continue today as long as Manufacturing PMI, Service PMI, and Composite PMI data for the eurozone exceed expectations.

For long positions: Buy when euro hits 1.0946 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.1003. Growth will occur after very good statistics from Germany and the eurozone, especially in the manufacturing sector. When buying, make sure that the MACD line lies above zero or rises from it. Euro can also be bought after two consecutive price tests of 1.0921, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0946 and 1.1003. For short positions: Sell when euro reaches 1.0921 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0875. Pressure will increase in the case of unsuccessful bullish activity around the daily high and weak data. When selling, make sure that the MACD line lies under zero or drops down from it. Euro can also be sold after two consecutive price tests of 1.0946, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0921 and 1.0875.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY. March 25th. Bulls fear the new tightening of the Bank of Japan's policy

On the hourly chart, the USD/JPY pair on Friday failed to continue its upward trend towards the corrective level of 127.2%152.10. However, traders also failed to return to the support zone of 150.79150.91. Today, a rebound from the zone of 150.79150.91 will allow for a new upward movement towards 152.10, while consolidation below the ascending trend channel will favor the Japanese currency and lead to some decline towards the Fibonacci level of 76.4%149.86.

The wave situation recently fully supports the bulls. Exactly three waves were formed downwards (one being corrective), so a new "bullish" trend is forming. The new upward wave easily broke the peak of the previous wave. Thus, I have no reason to speak of the end of the "bullish" trend. For signs of its completion to appear, a new downward wave is required to break the low from March 11. Alternatively, the next upward wave should not break the last peak, which has yet to form, as the current wave still needs to be completed. On Friday, there was virtually no news in Japan or the USA, which explained the low activity of traders. However, over the weekend, it became known that the Bank of Japan may continue to tighten its monetary policy at its upcoming meetings, as it is quite concerned about the current Japanese yen exchange rate. The problem lies in the significant discrepancy between the Fed and the Bank of Japan rates, but the American regulator still needs to be ready to ease its stance. Therefore, if the Japanese regulator wants to stabilize the yen exchange rate, it must raise its interest rate. The "bullish" trend persists, but bulls have recently been contemplating the prospects and are not ready to get rid of the yen recklessly.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair continues toward the corrective level of 100.0%-151.95. After consolidating below the ascending trend corridor, bears were in a more advantageous position for a couple of days, but on the hourly chart, bulls are now in the lead. Consolidation of the pair's rate above the level of 151.95 will increase the likelihood of further growth towards the next Fibonacci level of 127.2%158.66. Commitments of Traders (COT) report: The sentiment of the "non-commercial" trader category became even more "bearish" during the last reporting week. The number of long contracts held by speculators increased by 11,351 units, while the number of short contracts increased by 25,041. The overall sentiment of major players remains "bearish," and the advantage of sellers is huge. There is almost a threefold gap between the number of long and short contracts: 66,000 versus 182,000. The yen still has excellent prospects for further decline. Still, the significant gap between long and short contracts may also indicate the proximity of the end of the "bearish" trend for the Japanese currency. In other words, bullish speculators may start to retreat from the market. On the 4-hour chart, we already see a significant break in the "bullish" trend, but the dollar may continue to rise in the short term.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Overview of the EUR/USD pair. March 27th. The ECB is fully prepared for easing in June



On Tuesday, the EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade calmly with low volatility. During the day, the moving average line was tested, but the downward trend remains intact. Even if there is a confident breakthrough of the moving average, it will not signify the beginning of a new upward trend.

It's worth noting that on the 24-hour TF, the technical picture allows no room for double interpretation. Initially, we saw a strong correction against the new downward trend, followed by a weak correction within the framework of this same downward trend. Thus, the decline of the pair should resume almost in any case. Of course, phrases like "should resume" or "in any case" are unsuitable for the currency market. The point is that market makers dominate the market, often making trading decisions regardless of their fundamental and macroeconomic backgrounds.

However, we pay attention to news and reports, as many market participants do. With the same success, one could say that market makers pay no attention to technical analysis, but that doesn't mean it shouldn't be used now. Therefore, with careful analysis, it becomes clear that, according to common sense and logic, the European currency should continue to decline.

However, only some can command major players to sell euros and buy dollars. Hence, any forecast carries only a certain probability of execution. As long as the price remains below the 4-hour TF moving average and below the Ichimoku indicator lines on the 24-hour TF, it's evident that a resumption of the decline is more likely. Regarding the fundamental background, several ECB representatives spoke during the first two days of the week.

In particular, Christine Lagarde, Philip Lane, and Madis Muller spoke. And last week, almost half of the monetary committee members made speeches. Almost all ECB officials lean towards the necessity of starting rate cuts in June. Only some allow for an earlier or later start to the monetary policy easing cycle. The month of June as a possible date for the first rate cut in the EU means nothing. What matters is the timing relationship between the first-rate cuts in the US and the EU. Since the Fed has a good chance of postponing the first easing from June to a later date (and such a postponement would already be the second one), the fundamental background remains in favor of the US dollar. The Fed will thus keep the rate at its maximum value for much longer than the market expected. Accordingly, its stance is more "hawkish" than it might have seemed a few months ago. Therefore, we expect further strengthening of the US dollar. Of course, this doesn't mean that the pair will move downward with a 100% probability or fall daily. We see that volatility remains low, and the market is cautious. Nevertheless, any pair growth (except for corrective) would be illogical.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot forecast for EUR/USD on April 4, 2024

Yesterday turned out to be much more eventful than expected. The focus was on the euro area inflation data, which showed that the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rose 2.4% in March, slowing from a 2.6% increase in February. In addition, US private payrolls increased by 184,000, against a forecast of 125,000. And the icing on the cake was Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell saying that the US central bank has time to assess data before it makes a decision on rate cuts. In general, everything pointed to an inevitable and sharp rise in the dollar. However, for some unknown reason, the euro was rising. Contrary to all the reports and official statements. And we can't explain why this happened. Unfortunately, these things happen occasionally. And in this case, it was better to just acknowledge this fact rather than build conspiracy theories trying to explain everything. Obviously, such a thing could only happen in the event of a massive capital outflow from the dollar to the euro. Only a handful of investment funds and banks can do such a thing. But if there is no confirmation on their part, it isn't worth making accusations. Fortunately, as I mentioned above, these things rarely happen. Moreover, fundamentally, such price jumps do not change the situation and the market quickly returns to its usual course. In fact, it may even do so today. The formal reason could be the eurozone producer prices data, the rate of decline of which is likely to slow down from -8.6% to -8.3%. Movement towards stabilizing inflationary processes will convince the market that the European Central Bank will be the first to start lowering its interest rates. So basically, the prospects for the euro are not as bright as they might seem.

The EUR/USD pair surged above the 1.0840 mark, against the logic of fundamental analysis. From a technical perspective, the volume of long positions could have increased after the price upwardly breached the 1.0800 level. On the 30M, 1H and 4H charts, the RSI technical indicator shows signs of the euro's overbought conditions. On the 4-hour chart, the Alligator's MAs are headed upwards. It changed direction when the price suddenly jumped.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD. April 8th. Preparations for the ECB meeting are in full swing

The EUR/USD pair dropped to the support zone of 1.07851.0801 on Friday, rebounded from it, and resumed the upward process towards the Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2%1.0866. A new rebound from this level will again benefit the US dollar, as will a return to the zone of 1.07851.0801. Consolidation of the pair's rate below this zone will increase the probability of further decline towards the Fibonacci level of 0.0% at 1.0696. In my opinion, the option with a decline remains the most consistent.

The wave situation remains quite clear. The last completed downward wave broke the low of the previous wave (from March 19th), and the new upward wave has not yet approached the last peak (from March 21st). Thus, we are currently dealing with a "bearish" trend, and at the moment there is no sign of its completion. For such a sign to appear, the current upward wave must break the current last peak (from March 21st). If the new downward wave fails to break the low from April 2nd, this will also be a sign of the end of the "bearish" trend. The news background on Friday was very strong and extensive. It all started with the report on retail trade in the European Union. Volumes decreased by 0.5% m/m and by 0.7% y/y. Thus, from the very morning on, bears had reasons to counterattack. Next, in the United States, three reports on the labor market, unemployment, and wages were released, which also supported the bears, but the zone of 1.07851.0801 proved to be an insurmountable obstacle for them. This week will see the ECB's third meeting this year. I expect that interest rates will not be changed, but Christine Lagarde's statements will indicate that the regulator will be ready to lower rates at the next meeting. It's difficult to say whether the strengthening of the ECB's "dovish" sentiment will help the bears, as the market has long understood that the first easing of monetary policy awaits it in June. But once again, the news background will be on the side of sellers.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Analysis and trading tips for EUR/USD on April 12 (US session)

Analysis of transactions and trading tips on EUR/USD Further decline became limited because the test of 1.0702 occurred during the sharp drop of the MACD line from zero. CPI data in France and Germany coincided with forecasts, indicating that everything proceeds according to the plan of the ECB. In fact, it said it intends to lower interest rates in June. In the afternoon, consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan and inflation expectations will come out, but regardless of the data released, euro will have a chance for an upward correction, so be cautious with selling at current lows.

For long positions: Buy when euro hits 1.0678 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0725. Growth will occur after very poor statistics from the US. When buying, ensure that the MACD line lies above zero or rises from it. Euro can also be bought after two consecutive price tests of 1.0646, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0678 and 1.0595. For short positions: Sell when euro reaches 1.0646 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0595. Pressure will return in the case of strong data from the US. When selling, make sure that the MACD line lies below zero or drops down from it. Euro can also be sold after two consecutive price tests of 1.0678, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0646 and 1.0595.

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