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Weekly technical levels for GBP/USD for January 12-16, 2015

 

Forecast:

According to the previous events, the price of GBP/USD pair has still been trapped between 1.5068 and 1.5255. The level of 1.5306 represents strong resistance. Also, it should be noted that the price of 1.5318 coincides with the ratio of 100% Fibonacci retracement levels. The minor support has set at the level of 1.5102. Hence, we expect a range about 58 pips on January 12. Therefore, the market is going to call for a downtrend from the level of 1.5285. Thus, sell below the level of 1.5285 in the short term with the first target of 1.5143, it might resume to 1.5053 if the trend will be able to break the weekly pivot point at the level of 1.5171. It should be noted that the weekly support 1 will set at 1.5023. 

Notes: 

According to our statistics, it was found out that the range was between 240 pips and 285 pips and the average range was around 266 pips. Major support will set at 1.5023 on January 12, 2015. The level of 1.5170 represents the weekly pivot point. Major resistance has already set at the price of 1.5306. It should be noted that the weekly range was not very large for the last four weeks.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for January 14, 2015

EUR/USD: This currency trading instrument still has the potential to continue trading further down in the context of the existing bearish trend. When the support line at 1.1750 is breached to the downside, it would ensure more southerly trip towards another support line at 1.1700.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for January 26, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups: The EUR/JPY pair has dropped by 5 waves down from 149.80 to sub 131.00 levels, depicted with arrows here. It looks like the pair is preparing for a counter trend rally that could extend towards 142.30 levels. Immediate support is seen at sub 130.00 levels, while resistance is seen at 133.00 respectively. A break above 133.00 would confirm that the rally has resumed and it would be recommended to initiate long positions on dips there after. As discussed earlier, the bigger picture indicates that EUR/JPY might be heading into a deeper correction lower towards 115.00/116.00 levels. For now, a 3-wave counter trend rally seems more probable. 

 

Trading recommendations: Could buy on dips after 133.00 breaks.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for January 28, 2015


The GBP/USD pair had another bullish session during yesterday, as this pair is trading close to the resistance level of 1.5247. Remember that a breakout on that zone could activate buy orders on this pair to the nearest resistance level of 1.5491. Anyway, from a general view, the GBP/USD pair is still forming a bearish pattern and that bias is still valid.

 

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Technical analysis and trading recommendation on USD/JPY for January 30, 2015

The strong US dollar took the pair towards 20Dsma. The US unemployment claims plunged, which gave a strong support to the greenback. In the week ending January 24, the flash figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 265,000, a decrease of 43,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since April 15, 2000. But the Pending home sales data was disappointing, it declined 3.7%. On the other hand, Japan's retail sales unexpectedly fell in December. Sales declined 0.3% percent from November for a third month in a row. Today, the focus has shifted to US preliminary GDP. The pair has been still consolidating in the same tight range between 118.85 and 117.10 as we discussed in our earlier reports. The prices are trading within a triangle on the h4 chart. In case if the prices managed to give an upside breakout, it can challenge towards 120.50. In yesterday's session the pair managed to close above 34hrsma levels. The prices are facing strong resistance at the 80.0 fib level on the h4-chart. For about 3 hours, the prices have been taking support from the previous swing high at 118.24. We recommend buying at the current price of 118.27 with the targets at 118.50, 118.65, and 118.80. On a positional basis, until the pair holds at 117.00 and trades above 118.85, it can give another stellar show towards 120.00+. In case if the pair breaks below 117.00, it can extend its fall to 115.00 and panic will spark below 115.00. The intraday support levels exists at 118.15 and 117.85. We recommend selling only below 117.85, until bulls have an upper hand.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for February 03, 2015

On the daily chart, we can see the domination of the bearish bias on the GBP/USD pair. The pressure remains, as the pair is trying to consolidate below the support level of 1.5025. That breakout could take place during this week, when GBP/USD price action shows us that a lower low pattern is fully finished. The MACD indicator remains in the positive territory.

During the last session, the GBP/USD pair made a breakout in the 1.5039 zone, where the pair could start to form a solid bearish pattern to continue looking for more lows in the short-term bias. Anyway, our targets on the downside remains placed at the support level of 1.4994 and 1.4957, and this could be possible because the 200 SMA is bearish.

Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.5247 / 1.5491

Dailychart's support levels: 1.5025 / 1.4853

H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5039 / 1.5084

H1 chart's support levels: 1.4994 / 1.4957

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.4994, take profit is at 1.4957, and stop loss is at 1.532.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for February 5, 2015

EUR/USD: This pair tested the resistance line at 1.1500, broke through it and later failed to close above it. The dip that occurred as a result is serious enough to be a danger to the current bullish possibility. A movement below the support line at 1.1250 would mean the end of the bullish possibility and the reversal of the recent bearish trend.

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USD/JPY Wave Analysis for February 9-13, 2015


Trading recommendations: The GBP/USD pair on February 9, 2015. The resistance is going to set at the level of 1.5402, but a double top is placed at the point of 1.5351. Consequently, the descending movement will probably be lower than the 1.5351/1.5402 level with the targets at 1.5195 in order to try breaking the weekly pivot point. The pair will continue movement towards the levels of 1.5130 - 1.5070. On the contrary, the support has already set at 1.7070. Furthermore, it should be noted that it will rather profitable to buy above this level to retest this level in the long period. Therefore, buy deals are recommended above the 1.5070 level with targets at 1.5277 and 1.5351 to reach the double top.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for February 10, 2015

During the last session, the GBP/USD pair did a pullback below the resistance level of 1.5247. Now, the nearest target on the downside road is placed at the level of 1.5025. Currently, the pair could start forming a bullish pattern in order to rise until the resistance level of 1.5497, but at this point, our outlook for the GBP/USD pair is still bearish.

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Technical analysis of Silver for February 12, 2015


Technical outlook and chart setups:
Silver has remained unchanged while Gold hit lows yesterday, as seen here. The metal is holding fibonacci 0.618 support level very well at $16.50. It is expected to resume rally any time now, towards $18.90 and $21.00 at the sessions to come. It is recommended to remain long for now and consider adding further positions at the current levels. Bulls are very much poised to extend rally through higher levels till $16.50 and $15.50 remains intact. Immediate support is seen at $16.50 levels (interim), followed by $16.20, $15.50 and lower while resistance is seen at $17.40/50 (interim), followed by $18.40.50, $18.90 and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:
Remain long, stop at $16.00, the target is open.


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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for February 17, 2015


The Monday session was supposed to be a slow one for the GBP/USD pair, but in fact the bearish bias took the control again of this pair for a while. However, currently, our targets still remain on the upside at the resistance level of 1.5491. The current moves could deliver a bullish pattern on the daily chart. The MACD indicator is still on the positive territory.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for February 20, 2015

Overview: The NZD/USD pair will probably continue straight from the level of 0.7478 (at 61.8% of Fibonacci retracement levels on H1 chart). Besides, it should be noted that the double bottom will be formed at the same level of 0.7478. Therefore, the NZD/USD pair is showing signs of strenght following the break of the first resistance level of 0.7500. So it will be a good idea to buy above the level of 0.7470 or/and 0.7500 with the first target of 0.7548 and further towards the last peak point 0.7577 (it will act as a strong resistance, so that it is going to be a good place to take profit, it should be also noted that this level of taking profit will coincide with 100% of Fibonacci). However, in case reversal takes place and the NZD/USD pair breaks through the support level of 0.7478, the market will lead to further decline to 0.7443 and then 0.7414 in order to indicate for the bearish market on February 20, 2015.
Trading recommendations: According to previous events, the price will move between 0.7577 and 0.7415. Buy above 0.7480 with the first target of 0.7546, it might resume to 0.7570. Below the level of 0.7463 look for further downside with the 0.7443 and 0.7414 targets.


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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for February 27, 2015

Overview: The market of the USD/CAD pair is continuing to show signs of strength following the break level of 1.2402. Besides, resistance of the USD/CAD pair broke and turned to support a month ago (26th of January 2015). It should be noted that the pair has already formed strong support at the level of 1.2402. Hence, the market indicates a bullish opportunity at the level of 1.2400/1.2390 with a first target at 1.2533 and continues towards 1.2594 which represents strong resistance on February 27, 2015. However, according to previous events, the price has still traded between 1.2402 and 1.2594. Thereupon, if the trend can break this level and close below the price of 1.2390, then we expect the market to gain a convincing downside momentum and the structure of the fall does not look corrective. For that reason, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity at the spot of 1.2594. As the price is below 1.2594, look for further downside with a target of 1.2420.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for March 3, 2015


EUR/USD: This pair is still bearish in outlook, and is not yet able to go upwards significantly, following a strong bearish run that happened at the end of last week. As long as this pair is weak, the USD/CHF (which normally gets negatively correlated to the EUR/USD) would not be able to go downwards. The price is currently between the support line at 1.1150 and the resistance line at 1.1200. The support line is likely to be breached to the downside but the price may be unable to close below it, because the outlook on the EUR is upbeat.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for March 05, 2015

When the European market opens, economic data on the ECB press conference, minimum bid rate, the French 10-y bond auction, the retail PMI, and the German factory orders m/m are expected to be released. The US will announce the infotmation about natural gas storage, factory orders m/m, revised unit labor costs q/q, the revised nonfarm productivity q/q, unemployment claims, and Challenger job cuts y/y. So, EUR/USD will move with medium volatility during this day amid reports.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1133.
Strong Resistance:1.1127.
Original Resistance: 1.1116.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1105.
Target Inner Area: 1.1079
Inner Buy Area: 1.1053.
Original Support: 1.1042.
Strong Support: 1.1031.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1025.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 17, 2015


In Asia, Japan will release the results of the BOJ press conference and monetary policy statement. The US is expected to publish economic data about housing starts and building permits. So, there is a big probability that the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during the day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS: Resistance. 3: 122.07. Resistance. 2: 121.83. Resistance. 1: 121.60. Support. 1: 121.31. Support. 2: 121.07. Support. 3: 120.83.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for March 23, 2015

Technical summary: The decline from 1.4631 (the top of wave iv) has already broken below a low of wave iii at 1.4289 confirming that wave v lower to 1.4079 is unfolding. In the short term, the minor resistance at 1.4340 should protect the upside for a decline towards 1.4079. A break above 1.4340 is going to confuse the picture, but only a break above resistance at 1.4425 is likely to indicate that the bottom is in place.

Trading recommendation: We are short EUR from 1.4545 and will move our stop lower to 1.4345. We are late in the decline, but it should be possible to sell near 1.4300 with a stop place at 1.4345 for a decline to 1.4079.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 26, 2015

In Asia, Japan is not going to release any economic data. However, the US is expected to publish data on Natural Gas Storage, the flash services PMI, and the number of unemployment claims. So, there is a strong probability that the USD/JPY pair will move with low volatility during the Asian session, but with low to medium volatility during the US session.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:
Resistance. 3: 119.96.
Resistance. 2: 119.73.
Resistance. 1: 119.49.
Support. 1: 119.20.
Support. 2: 118.97.
Support. 3: 118.73.

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Euro Area Is Gaining Momentum

Recent euro-area data releases have consistently surprised to the upside, adding to evidence that the region's recovery is gaining momentum, according to Standard Chartered research notes. Consumption and net exports are likely to be driving growth in Q1, when GDP growth could reach as high as 0.5% q/q, and the conditions are in place for a sustained investment improvement after a prolonged downturn. The euro-area PMI composite has risen to 54.1 in March, the highest since May 2011. France and Italy remain the weakest major economies, but there are bright spots in both countries, with GDP growth likely to pick up from a dismal Q4-2014 in both cases. Meanwhile, Germany is off to a strong start and is likely to pull along some of its smaller neighbours. German companies are benefitting from a more competitive euro, and across the euro area growth of new orders for goods exports has hit an eight-month high, according to Markit. Consumption is also strengthening. Euro-area retail sales were up 3.7% y/y in January, the strongest annual increase since 2005. Consumer confidence is at the highest level since 2007 on the back of higher real disposable incomes, due to stronger earnings growth, the lower oil price and generally low inflation. Meanwhile Germany's labour market is strong, and immigration and a higher minimum wage should boost consumer spending. Across the euro area unemployment is falling, albeit from high levels in some countries. Bank lending data also point to a more supportive growth environment. The downtrend of loans to non-financial corporations (adjusted for sales and securitisation) eased further, reaching -0.4% y/y in February. Standard Chartered research forecasts that "this trend will continue and we will very soon see positive y/y growth in loans to corporations. Loans to households, which usually recover earlier than loans to corporations, were up 1% y/y in February, continuing the uptrend that begun around the middle of 2014. Moreover, the third targeted long-term refinancing operation (TLTRO) take-up was strong at EUR 97bn, a signal that banks expect demand for loans to pick up. TLTRO loans are particularly helpful for banks in the periphery." Greece, which was one of the best performers in 2014, has deteriorated very fast due to political uncertainty. The key risk for the euro area's recovery remains a sentiment deterioration, either over Greece or eastern Ukraine. Ongoing reform discussions with Greece are reaching a critical stage, with Athens due to run out of money over the next month unless bailout funds are released. In Ukraine, tensions have deescalated since the truce, but the situation remains sensitive

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Daily analysis of USDX for April 06, 2015

The daily chart continues to show us a corrective phase of the USDX, as the index continues to move in favor of the bearish side but a corrective one as we mentioned above. The next floor or support zone is located at the level of 96.60, where we could expect a rebound to the resistance zone around 98.01. By the way, the bullish outlook is still alive. The USDX started this week with a deep bearish gap, which is now looking for support at the level of 96.54, more than 100 pips of empty zone. Now, the nearest resistance level is located around 97.08, where the USDX could begin to form a bullish pattern in order to reach the 200 SMA on the H1 chart. But the Index is still with the downside risk in the short term.

Daily chart's resistance levels: 98.01 / 99.12
Dailychart's support levels: 96.60 / 95.19
H1 chart's resistance levels: 97.08 / 97.30
H1 chart's support levels: 96.54 / 96.25

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 97.08, take profit is at 97.30, and stop loss is at 96.85.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for April 08, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups: The EUR/JPY pair is seen to be supported well around the level of 130.00 for now. The pair is seen to initiate/resume rally higher, and a break above 131.50 is likely to encourage bulls to go forward. It is hence recommended to initiate 50% positions now with risk at 128.50. Immediate support is seen at 128.50 followed by 128.00, 127.00, and lower, while resistance is seen at 131.50 followed by 133.00 and higher respectively. Bulls shall look to remain in control untill prices stay above 128.50.

Trading recommendations: Initiate 50% long positions, stop at 128.50, target is open.


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Daily analysis of major pairs for April 13, 2015

EUR/USD: This pair is very weak right now, owing to a deep weakness in EUR and a great strength of USD. In fact, EUR is one of the weakest currencies among the majors and so are most EUR pairs. A rally of 400 pips is significant enough to result in a clean Bearish Confirmation Pattern and further plunge is expected this week.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD

Strong bullish rejection was expressed around 1.4700 (previous weekly low). A significant bullish weekly candlestick was expressed by the end of the week. Shortly after, an evident bearish pressure was applied around 1.4960-1.5000. This price zone corresponds to 38.2% Fibonacci level as well as the previous weekly demand, which was broken back in January 2015. Transient sideways movement with slight bearish tendency has been expressed on the daily chart until bearish breakdown of the daily demand level at 1.4700 took place last week. Projection target for this consolidation breakout would be located around the price level of 1.4440.


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for April 16, 2015

In Asia, Japan is not expected to release any ecnomic data. The US will publish data on Natural Gas Storage, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Housing Starts, Unemployment Claims, and Building Permits. So, there is a strong probability that the USD/JPY will move with low volatility during the Asian session but with low to medium volatility during the US session.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:
Resistance. 3: 119.52.
Resistance. 2: 119.29.
Resistance. 1: 119.05.
Support. 1: 118.78.
Support. 2: 118.54.
Support. 3: 118.30.

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