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IFX bella · Senior Member

RE: Wave Analysis by InstaForex

IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY Forecast for March 12, 2025

After testing the price channel line on the daily chart, the USD/JPY pair has moved upward, likely entering a corrective phase following the price movement since January 10.

The nearest corrective level is at 149.38, which aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci level. A breakout above this level would allow the price to continue its correction toward the 38.2% Fibonacci level, targeting 151.30.

On the four-hour chart, the price has moved above the MACD line, and the Marlin oscillator is in the uptrend area. We expect the price to rise toward the initial target level of 149.38.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for March 13, 2025

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Yesterday, U.S. inflation data indicated a slowdown in February, with core CPI at 2.8% year-over-year compared to 3.0% in January, which was also above the forecast of 2.9%. However, the markets were prepared for this news and barely reacted, as media reports suggest they are more concerned about the impacts of trade wars. As a result, the main focus now shifts to indicators for the current month. March data will start to come in after the Federal Reserve's meeting on March 19, and investors are eager to see if the Fed will take any precautionary measures, especially since this meeting is expected to be extended. In the meantime, market sentiment will be influenced by speculators.

The daily chart indicates that the euro's decline from 1.0949 to 1.0882 is merely a technical correction. The Marlin oscillator has pulled back from the lower overbought zone, suggesting that the price has enough space for a deeper correction, potentially down to 1.0667, which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the last upward movement. The price had risen too far from the MACD line due to emotional trading (by 5.5 figures). To confirm a move towards the first support level at 1.0762, the price must consolidate below 1.0882. Conversely, for the uptrend to continue, the price needs to break above 1.0949, as the 1.0882-1.0949 range serves as a consolidation zone.

The four-hour chart presents complications for both scenarios. A decline might only reach the MACD line around 1.0806, which coincides with the March 10 low. Additionally, it is possible that the price may reverse from the 1.0762 support level. In this case, a brief dip below the MACD line would be seen as a false signal, further reinforcing the uptrend.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD Forecast for March 14, 2025

On Wednesday, the British pound fell by 12 pips, causing the Marlin oscillator's signal line to drop below the support level of 0.0216. This raises the chances of the price testing the range of 1.2816 to 1.2847 before the Federal Reserve meeting on March 19. If the meeting does not significantly impact the pound, this range testing may continue until the Bank of England meeting on March 20.

The nearest obstacle for the price in reaching the target range is the MACD line on the four-hour chart, which is situated around 1.2910. The Marlin oscillator's signal line has slightly widened its consolidation range, now indicated by a gray rectangle.

The price may prefer to move sideways within the 1.2910 to 1.3001 range. In this scenario, a break below the 0.0216 support level on the daily chart by the Marlin oscillator would signal a typical cooldown before potential further growth. Overall, the pound appears to be adopting a wait-and-see approach.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for March 17, 2025

After Friday's price consolidation below the 1.0882 level, the euro is attempting to rise above this level once again. The expectation is that it will fluctuate within the range of 1.0882 to 1.0949 until the Fed announces its monetary policy. This movement may indicate an intention to continue rising towards the target of 1.1027.

If the euro closes below 1.0882 today, there could be increased volatility on Wednesday, potentially pushing down to the support level at 1.0762 before rebounding with the aim of reaching the target of 1.1027. The Marlin oscillator has declined from the lower boundary of the overbought zone, suggesting that there is potential for upward momentum to build.

On the four-hour chart, the price is rising above the MACD line, which was tested from above on Friday. This reduces the likelihood of breaking through this line in a stable market at 1.0860. It appears the price will continue to consolidate with upward pressure. However, if it consolidates below the MACD line at 1.0860, the likelihood of a wider price range movement on Wednesday will increase.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for March 19, 2025

We've arrived at the key event of the weekthe Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision. The interest rate is expected to remain unchanged, but we are eager to see what Jerome Powell will say about the rapidly evolving political and economic landscape. The U.S. economy is facing two major challenges: inflation and a recession. The Fed's perception of which issue is the bigger threat will dictate Powell's tone. Inflation has been the dominant concern in recent years and is on the rise again, ensuring it will be a focal point. The economic slowdown has crossed a critical threshold, but the Fed tends to wait for more data before making any moves, likely indicating a "wait-and-see approach." The Fed has the flexibility to cut rates by 0.5% if necessary, given the current relatively high level. Ultimately, we expect the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to adjust its rate projections, indicating three rate cuts by the end of the year, which may reveal what Powell might leave unsaid. Unfortunately, this does not clarify how the market will react to the Fed's decision; it only highlights the uncertainty surrounding it and the future actions of major players.

On the weekly chart, the price is testing the MACD line, signaling either a possible upward breakout or a decisive downward reversal.

On the daily chart, a divergence has formed between price and the Marlin oscillator, raising further questions rather than providing clarity. On the four-hour chart, the price appears poised, simply waiting for a signal.

Even if we had advance access to Powell's speech, it would provide little insight into the actions of major market players. As mentioned in previous reviews, the U.S. economy seems to be more resilient in its tariff battles with Europe. We expect a medium- to long-term strengthening of the U.S. dollar, though we are uncertain whether that trend will begin today.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for March 20, 2025

The Federal Reserve meeting has concluded, and our expectation that economic risks would be highlighted was correct. Both the accompanying statement and Powell's speech emphasized these concerns. The central bank has lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 2.5% to 1.7%, raised the inflation forecast from 2.5% to 2.8%, and increased the unemployment forecast to 4.4%. However, markets, including stocks, did not react negatively. Investors likely anticipated even worse forecasts; in reality, the numbers do not appear bad, and there is no discussion of a recession. The Fed remains cautious and plans to implement two rate cuts by the end of the year.

On the daily chart, the euro has stayed within the range of 1.0882 to 1.0949. The price attempted to break below 1.0882 but was prevented from doing so. Now, we expect the euro to break above 1.0949, which would open the path for further growth towards the target level of 1.1027, set at the low point on September 3, 2024. The price divergence with the Marlin oscillator appears weak and may reconfigure into another pattern.

On the H4 chart, the price briefly dipped below the 1.0882 support level, while the Marlin oscillator made a false move below the zero line. A break above 1.0949, which coincides with a break above the MACD line, will signal a rally towards 1.1027.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Today, gold prices remain low but are holding above the psychological level of $3000, which serves as an important support. News that emerged over the weekend indicates that U.S. President Donald Trump is planning a narrower and more targeted agenda on reciprocal tariffs set to take effect on April 2. This has increased investors' appetite for risk assets, set a positive tone in equity markets, and consequently undermined demand for the precious metal today. At the same time, U.S. delegations are engaged in talks with Ukrainian officials and are planning meetings with Russian representatives. Earlier this month, Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to a 30-day pause in strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, which may help ease tensions in the region. The U.S. dollar is hovering near a 1.5-week high reached last week.

However, expectations that economic slowdown caused by tariffs may force the Fed to resume rate cuts are also limiting the downside in gold prices. This creates uncertainty, and it would be prudent to wait for a more significant decline before opening new short positions. Adding to the uncertainty is the tense situation in the Middle East: Israel continues its strikes on Gaza, while Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen launched a ballistic missile at Israel, though it was successfully intercepted. These developments increase the risk of further conflict escalation in the region. Today, traders should pay close attention to the release of PMI data, which will provide fresh insight into the state of the U.S. economy and may impact commodities. Also in focus is the U.S. Core PCE Price Index, due to be published on Friday. From a technical perspective, the $3000 level may attract buyers, but a break below it could trigger technical selling, pushing gold prices down toward the $29802978 area. If the correction continues, the next support lies at $29562954. On the other hand, last week's all-time high near $30573058 could act as the nearest resistance. Given that the daily RSI has exited overbought territory, renewed buying may become the next trigger for bulls, opening the way for the continuation of the uptrend observed over the past three months.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY Forecast for March 28, 2025

Yesterday, Donald Trump signed an executive order imposing a 25% tariff on all automobiles and auto parts imported into the U.S. The tariff on vehicles will take effect on April 3, and the one on parts will begin on May 3. In response to this news, the yen weakened by 0.18%, and during the Asian session today, the Japanese stock index Nikkei 225 fell by 2.14%. Following the Nikkei 225, we expect the USD/JPY pair to decline as an instrument that partially retains its status as a "safe haven" and due to capital returning to Japan amid the steady, albeit slow, retreat of investors from U.S. Treasury bonds.

On the daily chart, the price has nearly reached the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, coinciding with the target of 151.30. The Marlin oscillator is ready to reverse, and the price may return to support at 149.38. A consolidation below this level opens the path toward 145.91. A consolidation above 151.30 would only shift the current bearish scenario to the 50.0% Fibonacci level (152.70), where the Kijun line is approaching. Only a move above the Kijun line would create an alternative scenario with growth potential toward 154.56 as the initial target.

On the H4 chart, the Marlin oscillator's signal line has created a broad, extended wedge, indicating a potential downward breakout. A drop below the Kijun line and the 150.16 level (the high from March 19) would confirm the breakout and aim for 149.38.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for March 31,2025

Market participants have again been gripped by fear due to Washington's intention to expand tariff duties by 20% on virtually all U.S. trading partners. On Friday, the S&P 500 stock index plunged by 1.97%, and now the equity market may take the lead in shaping risk sentiment. If that happens, the euro may not withstand the pressure and could follow a medium-term downward trend.

On the daily chart, the single currency continues to climb. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator has entered positive territory, and formally, the price is moving toward the target level of 1.0955. There is time for this move, as the key developments are expected on April 3, when the new tariffs take effect. Investors will then begin reassessing risks based on those measures.

On the four-hour chart, the price is approaching the MACD line. This is a timely signal, as a consolidation above this resistance level would indicate that the bulls are ready to continue the rally toward 1.0955. The initial impulse came from the Marlin oscillator reversing off the zero line. The nearest support level is 1.0762. A break below it would open the way to the 1.0667 target. The direction of the S&P 500 index will influence the sustainability of the trend in either direction. For now, the situation remains uncertain.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for April 3, 2025

Starting today, U.S. tariffs ranging from 10% to 50% will apply to nearly all of America's trading partners. Market participants were prepared and refrained from panic, although equity indices weakened. In response, efforts to strengthen regional and global trade alliances have regained momentum. We immediately heard renewed focus on BRICS, ASEAN, APEC, and others. China, Japan, and South Korea announced the formation of a new trade bloc.

Meanwhile, markets are still evaluating losses and opportunities. Against this backdrop, investors have begun to move away from the U.S. dollar, technically triggering upward moves in anti-dollar currencies. On the daily EUR/USD chart, the euro is approaching the first target level at 1.0955. The next targets are 1.1027 and the broader target range of 1.1110/50. The Marlin oscillator has moved into positive territory with significant upside potential.

On the H4 chart, yesterday evening's price showed a wide rangeover 100 pipsdirectly above the MACD line, which currently reinforces that line and signals a strong short-term uptrend. This trend could only be broken if the price falls below the support level at 1.0762. In that case, the 1.0667 target would come into play.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for April 3, 2025

Starting today, U.S. tariffs ranging from 10% to 50% will apply to nearly all of America's trading partners. Market participants were prepared and refrained from panic, although equity indices weakened. In response, efforts to strengthen regional and global trade alliances have regained momentum. We immediately heard renewed focus on BRICS, ASEAN, APEC, and others. China, Japan, and South Korea announced the formation of a new trade bloc.

Meanwhile, markets are still evaluating losses and opportunities. Against this backdrop, investors have begun to move away from the U.S. dollar, technically triggering upward moves in anti-dollar currencies. On the daily EUR/USD chart, the euro is approaching the first target level at 1.0955. The next targets are 1.1027 and the broader target range of 1.1110/50. The Marlin oscillator has moved into positive territory with significant upside potential.

On the H4 chart, yesterday evening's price showed a wide rangeover 100 pipsdirectly above the MACD line, which currently reinforces that line and signals a strong short-term uptrend. This trend could only be broken if the price falls below the support level at 1.0762. In that case, the 1.0667 target would come into play.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for April 7, 2025

Last Friday, global markets continued to decline albeit unevenly: the S&P 500 fell by 5.97%, oil by 7.41%, commodity currencies lost around 2% on average, and the yield on 5-year U.S. Treasuries dropped from 3.73% to 3.55%. However, the euro declined by only 0.80%, while the dollar rose by 0.58% against the yen. Today, the euro opened with a 68-pip downward gap, which it filled within an hour and fifteen minutes. Since this morning, all instruments including S&P 500 futures have been rising. We believe the market has primarily absorbed the short-term effects of China's newly imposed 34% tariffs on U.S. goods over the weekend.

On the daily chart, the euro has broken above the 1.0955 level. The Marlin oscillator is ready to resume growth after stabilizing in positive territory. A breakout above the nearest resistance at 1.1027 will open the way to the target range of 1.1110/50. From there, a move toward 1.1276 the July 2023 peak becomes likely, and at that point, a synchronized reversal with the equity market may occur, triggering a new wave of euro weakening. This would represent a typical crisis-style correlation.

The Marlin oscillator shows signs of a reversal from the neutral zero line on the four-hour chart. The price has consolidated above the 1.0955 level. We expect continued growth toward the first target at 1.1027, followed by an extended move into the 1.1110/50 target zone.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD April 8, 2025

On Monday, the euro reached the 1.1027 target level but dropped below 1.0955. Nonetheless, the single currency achieved its primary goal, reaffirming its intent to resume growth. Currently, the price is attempting to rise above the 1.0955 resistance level. If successful, the move toward 1.1027 may continue with stronger support. The Marlin oscillator has turned upward without even reaching the boundary of the bearish territory.

The increasing distance between the price and the balance line (red moving average) is also worth noting, which suggests the past two days' price action was merely a correction within a medium-term upward trend. However, this growth may end relatively soonaround the 1.1276 level, the next target above the most recent high. This growth is occurring against the backdrop of a rising stock market correction. Once that correction ends, the currency market may also reverse, shifting back to the US dollar as a safe-haven asset.

The balance line has supported the price on the four-hour chart throughout the two-day correction. The Marlin oscillator briefly entered bearish territory, but if it resumes upward movement, this can be considered a false signalanother sign of further growth. The first target is 1.1027. A breakout above this level opens the way to the second target, 1.1110.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for April 9, 2025

By the end of Tuesday, the euro gained 45 pips, and during today's Pacific session, it has added roughly the same amount, approaching the target level of 1.1027. If resistance is broken, the price may target the 1.1110/50 range. However, a bearish trap could be lurking there. The reason is that commodities and stock indices continue to decline sharply, and the euro might not withstand the pressure. Yesterday, oil fell by 2.16%, and the S&P 500 by 1.57%.

A consolidation above the 1.1110/50 range, combined with a correctional rebound in equity markets and oil, could extend the euro's rise toward the 1.1276 target. An alternative scenario with a drop in the euro toward 1.0762 may also unfold, but for that, the pair needs to consolidate below the 1.0955 level.

On the H4 chart, the Marlin oscillator has timely entered positive territoryindicating the price needs support to break through the 1.1027 resistance level. Once the price has consolidated above this level, it could cautiously advance to the target zone.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for April 10, 2025

Yesterday, U.S. President Donald Trump lowered tariffs to 10% for 90 days for countries that did not retaliate to the initial U.S. tariffs (more than 75 in total). Meanwhile, tariffs on China were raised to 125%. The S&P 500 stock index surged by 9.51%, the U.S. dollar index dipped slightly by 0.08%, and the euro closed with a modest decline after previously forming a 130-point upper shadow during the session.

Thursday has begun with renewed growth. After breaking above resistance at 1.1027, we expect the price to move toward the 1.1110/50 range. The Marlin oscillator is slowly turning upward. On the H4 chart, the price briefly held above 1.1027 but then dipped below support at 1.0955. The bullish sentiment remains intact since there was no sustained close below this level.

We expect another firm move above 1.1027 and further growth toward the mentioned target range. The Marlin oscillator has weakened and is currently lagging. A consolidation above 1.1027 would help the oscillator recover and support the uptrend.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Overview. April 14: The DollarFrom Leader to Laggard

The EUR/USD currency pair continued its steady rally on Friday. At this point, there are no more questions about what is happening in the currency marketit's as simple as it gets. Donald Trump keeps raising the stakes, attempting to force (there's no better word) every country trading with the U.S. to do so strictly on American terms. Naturally, not everyone is thrilled with this turn of events, and the much-talked-about line of eager trade delegations to the White House has yet to appear. Speaking of Trump, he has never been shy with wordsand this time is no different. According to the sitting U.S. President, all countries are ready to "lick (censored)" to get a trade deal with the U.S. It's worth noting that these are official statements by the President of the United States. In our view, this borders on surrealism and absurdity. Trump continues to insult, humiliate, and issue ultimatums while waging trade wars under the guise of being a peacemaker. The results of his actions are nothing short of comical. Trump wants to bring back jobs and factories to the U.S., grow the economy, reduce the trade deficit, and cut national debt. Currently, the outcomes are the exact opposite. Investors and traders are fleeing American assets, and many notable figures are leaving the U.S. The economy is beginning to slow, and now even the most conservative analysts are forecasting a recession. Inflation is declining for now, but no one doubts it will accelerate significantly soon. Jobs aren't rushing back to the U.S., and factories aren't planning large-scale relocations. On the contrary, companies are seeking ways to avoid Trump's tariffsbut we haven't heard of any major firm moving production back to the U.S. As for the national debtthanks to Trump's policies, it's only likely to increase. Remember that government bonds are traditionally considered a stable and safe investment tool. U.S. Treasuries are now being sold off. As a result, bond yields are risingand yield is effectively the cost of borrowing. In other words, the U.S. government is now forced to borrow at higher rates. We're talking about billions of dollars at increased interest rates. So weand many expertsare left wondering: was it worth it? Perhaps there are brilliant economists in the Trump administration capable of modeling not only cash flows but also the reactions of half the world's countries to this kind of policy. But for now, the results are deeply disappointing. Some experts even believe the bond market may end up restraining Trump. In short, the more the bond market declines, the more the U.S. will pay in interest. This trend has started to worry Trump, which is likely why we're beginning to hear talk of "tariff amnesties."

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement USD/JPY Main Currency Pairs, Monday April 21, 2025.

With the appearance of Convergence between the price movement of the main currency pair USD/JPY with the Stochastic Oscillator indicator and the position of the EMA (100) which is above the price, in the near future USD/JPY has the potential to continue its weakening where as long as there is no further strengthening that breaks and closes above the level of 149.43, then USD/JPY will continue its weakening to the level of 139.59 if the volatility and momentum of the weakening support it, then 137.10 will be the next target that will be tested and aimed for.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on April 22. Review of Yesterday's Forex Trades

Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the British Pound The price test at 1.3379 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved far below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downside potential. For this reason, I did not sell the pound. I also didn't see any other entry points in the market. Yesterday's lack of data from the UK helped the pound continue its upward movement. The same scenario might repeat today, as no major macroeconomic indicators are expected. However, it's unwise to rely solely on the absence of news. The currency market is unpredictable, and investor sentiment can shift due to external factors, including the US stance on trade tariffs. Don't forget that the pound is traded against the dollar, which is currently under heavy pressure from several angles: ongoing trade tariffs, inflationary risks, and Donald Trump's pressure on Jerome Powell to cut interest ratessomething that, as you probably know, is negative for the dollar. For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today at the entry point around 1.3424 (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.3465 (thicker green line). Around 1.3465, I plan to exit the buys and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 3035 pip retracement from the entry point). Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and beginning to rise. Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3394 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downside potential and trigger an upward reversal. A price rise toward the opposite levels of 1.3424 and 1.3465 can be expected. Sell Signal Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after a break below 1.3394 (red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid drop. The key target for sellers will be 1.3349, where I plan to exit the shorts and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 2025 pip rebound from the level). Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its downward movement. Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.3424 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a reversal downward. A drop toward 1.3394 and 1.3349 can then be expected.

What's on the Chart: The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought. The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely. The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold. The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely. The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading Recommendations and Analysis for EUR/USD April 25: The Market Awaits New Announcements from Trump

The EUR/USD currency pair traded much more calmly on Thursday than during the first half of the week, and the market was also relatively more technical. Since the beginning of the week, we've been repeating the same messagemarket movements have been unusually erratic and chaotic, and the market is simply ignoring any macroeconomic backdrop. While the second point remained unchanged on Thursday, the first was temporarily neutralized. It is hard to determine how long that will last. Volatility on Thursday was noticeably lower. For most of the day, the euro continued to rise while the dollar declined, directly contradicting the macroeconomic data. The most important report of the dayU.S. durable goods orderswas unexpectedly much stronger than forecast. Growth amounted to +9.2% m/m. This figure is easily explained: by March, Trump's tariffs were already announced, prompting Americans to rush and purchase big-ticket items before prices surged. However, this doesn't change the essence of the report. The data significantly exceeded expectations yet failed to trigger any growth in the U.S. dollaror even a market reaction. In short, there is no Trump newsno movement, and the dollar still doesn't grow. After strong growth on Monday and a sharp decline on Tuesdaytriggered by the firing and subsequent reinstatement of Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chairthe price returned to the sideways channel it had been trading in all last week. Therefore, in the absence of new information from Trump, the price may continue to move sideways. Among Thursday's trading signals, we can highlight the bounce off the 1.1391 level, after which the price moved down a couple of dozen pips. While the move was small, such signals and profits are preferable to market storms and complete disregard for technical analysis.

The latest COT report is dated April 15. The chart above clearly shows that the net position of non-commercial traders had long remained bullish. Bears barely managed to gain the upper hand but quickly lost it again. The bears' advantage has visibly diminished since Trump took office, and the dollar sharply declined. We cannot definitively say that the decline of the U.S. currency will continue, but COT reports reflect the sentiment of large playerswhich can change rapidly under the current circumstances. We still see no fundamental factors justifying euro strength, but one significant factor is now driving dollar weakness. The pair may continue to correct for several more weeks or months, but a 16-year downtrend won't reverse so easily. The red and blue lines have now crossed again, signaling a bullish trend in the market. During the latest reporting week, the "Non-commercial" group increased its long positions by 6,800 and reduced its short positions by 2,500, resulting in a net increase of 9,300 contracts.

The EUR/USD pair maintains its upward trend on the hourly timeframe, though there is no clear trendline or channel. On the daily chart, we can officially say that the downtrend has been canceledsomething that would never have happened if Trump hadn't started a trade war. Thus, the fundamental backdrop has broken the technical picturesomething rare but not impossible. There is currently very little logic or technical structure in the pair's movements across all timeframes, and macroeconomic data does not impact the pair's dynamics. Trading levels for April 25: 1.0823, 1.0886, 1.0949, 1.1006, 1.1092, 1.1147, 1.1185, 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1321, 1.1391, 1.1474, 1.1607, 1.1666. Ichimoku lines: Senkou Span B (1.1182), Kijun-sen (1.1438). Ichimoku indicator lines may shift during the day and should be considered when determining trade signals. Also, don't forget to move your Stop Loss to breakeven if the price moves 15 pips in the desired direction. This will help protect against potential losses if the signal is false. On Friday, no significant events or reports are scheduled in the Eurozone. In the U.S., the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will be released. We've seen much more important reports recently that were utterly ignored. However, the market is still in chaos and disorder, and the EUR/USD pair may continue to trade sideways until new tariffs or Trump firings occur.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: GOLD Technical Analysis Overview

Last week, the bulls updated historical highs and formed a new maximum extremum at 3499.58. Afterward, gold entered a downward correction towards the support of the daily short-term trend at 3346.45. The market has taken a pause. If bearish sentiment receives a new impulse for development, the next target will be the daily medium-term trend at 3227.79, and then the corrective decline may extend toward the support of the weekly short-term trend at 3164.81. Eliminating the daily golden cross at 3163.64 and consolidating below the weekly levels at 3164.813131.58 would open up new bearish prospects.

On the lower timeframes, the main advantage remains with the bears. The market is operating below the key levels, currently at 3334.45 (the daily central Pivot level) and 3356.56 (the weekly long-term trend). Consolidation above the trend line and its reversal could shift the current balance of forces in favor of further bullish recovery. Resistance levels will be important for the bulls if the market starts developing directed movements, and support levels will be important for the bears according to the classic pivot points. Pivot levels are updated daily, and new actual data will appear at the opening of trading. ***

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Overview April 29: The Weak Yield, the Strong Resist

On Monday, the EUR/USD currency pair remained immobilized. There were no updates over the weekend from Donald Trump regarding trade developments, and no important data or events were scheduled for Monday. Therefore, the market had nothing to react to during the day. However, the EUR/USD pair has already been trading within a sideways channel for three weeks. Over the past few days, volatility has also declined significantly. Nevertheless, one should not conclude that the market has calmed down instead, the market is waiting. Few believe that Trump will refrain from raising or introducing new tariffs. Already, reports have surfaced suggesting possible tariff hikes of up to 20% for the EU. Meanwhile, China is not engaged in negotiations with the United States, which could deeply frustrate Trump, who had counted on reaching a deal within 34 weeks. Therefore, it is too early to speak of the end or de-escalation of the global trade war. It must be acknowledged that many countries from "Trump's list" are negotiating with the U.S. about trade deals. However, as we stated two months ago, mainly weak countries economically, geographically, or geopolitically are trying to reach an agreement with the conflict-prone and "fair" U.S. president. For example, Hungary (even though it is an EU member) is eager to secure a deal. Vietnam, which faces 46% import tariffs, strives to negotiate. Talks are underway with South Korea, Japan, and several other countries. Yet this list is missing notable heavyweights like Canada, the European Union, and China. To be precise, consultations with Brussels are ongoing, but no sign of a trade deal emerging. The market cannot be cheered by progress in talks with Vietnam. The American market and U.S. investments constitute half of Vietnam's economy. The U.S. is an important economic partner for the EU and China, but cooperation with the U.S. is far less important than it is for Vietnam. It is also important to understand that America is a competitor to the EU and China, while Vietnam is unlikely to compete with the U.S. Thus, weaker players seek agreements with Trump, while stronger ones resist and demand a fair and equitable deal. The market is interested in progress with China and the EU. Without progress, the dollar cannot gain strength against its major competitors. Therefore, after reaching another high, the price has simply been moving sideways for three weeks. Current movements cannot be described as technical either since we barely observe any corrections. Accordingly, there is a 90% probability that market movements (or lack thereof) this week will depend solely on the U.S. president.

The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last five trading days as of April 29 is 101 pips, which is considered "high." We expect the pair to move between the levels of 1.1284 and 1.1485 on Tuesday. The long-term regression channel is pointing upward, indicating a short-term uptrend. The CCI indicator has entered the overbought zone for the third time, signaling a new corrective movement phase, which, so far, is very weak as were previous ones. Nearest Support Levels: S1 1.1230 S2 1.0986 S3 1.0742 Nearest Resistance Levels: R1 1.1475 R2 1.1719 R3 1.1963 Trading Recommendations: The EUR/USD pair maintains a short-term upward bias. For months, we have consistently said that we expect the euro to decline in the medium term, and nothing has changed. The dollar still has no fundamental reasons for a medium-term fallother than Donald Trump. Yet this single factor continues to push the dollar into an abyss while the market ignores all other factors. If you are trading based on "pure" technical analysis or "Trump factor," long positions remain relevant as long as the price stays above the moving average, targeting 1.1719. If the price consolidates below the moving average, short positions formally become relevant with targets at 1.1230 and 1.0986 though it is currently hard to believe in a dollar rally. In recent weeks, there have been no new developments regarding the escalation or de-escalation of the trade war, which explains the ongoing flat movement in the market. Explanation of Illustrations: Linear Regression Channels help determine the current trend. If both channels are aligned, it indicates a strong trend. Moving Average Line (settings: 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and guides the trading direction. Murray Levels act as target levels for movements and corrections. Volatility Levels (red lines) represent the likely price range for the pair over the next 24 hours based on current volatility readings. CCI Indicator: If it enters the oversold region (below -250) or overbought region (above +250), it signals an impending trend reversal in the opposite direction.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Overview May 5: A New Week of Ordeals for the Dollar

The EUR/USD currency pair remained flat on Friday. The day saw both upward and downward movements. It is a notable achievement for the dollar that it has appreciated over the past five trading days rather than declined. While we constantly mention the irrational nature of recent movementsas the market has mostly been driven by the "Trump factor" in recent monthslast week's U.S. macroeconomic data largely pointed to another wave of dollar depreciation, and Donald Trump remained silent on the trade war. Therefore, the U.S. dollar could easily have ended the week with significant losses, but that didn't happen, again underscoring the market's illogical behavior. We won't focus too much on Friday's U.S. data as the market broadly ignores data releases. What was so positive on Friday? That April's Nonfarm Payrolls beat forecasts? So what if the March figure was revised downward? The unemployment rate didn't changewhat's optimistic about that? Wages showed no significant changes. And there were no other major reports. Meanwhile, earlier in the week, the GDP report disappointed, pointing toward an approaching recession in the U.S. economy. If the U.S. labor market still holds up, that may be temporary. That said, we'd note that the dollar could indeed rise in the near term. This could happen simply because it has been falling for several months. Of course, if Trump tomorrow revokes concessions and escalates the trade war again, the dollar will likely collapse. However, the market has already priced up in the current round of Trump's sanctions. Technical corrections are still a natural part of the market cycle. In short, the worst-case scenario has already played out. Therefore, the dollar may stop falling if no further trade war escalation occurs. Currently, the Federal Reserve is the main threat to the U.S. currency. No one on the market seems to understand what the U.S. central bank will do next. If it rushes to rescue the economy, rate cuts are a bearish signal for the dollar. But if it aims to maintain inflation at a steady 2%, then rates likely won't be cut anytime soon, and the market won't have a new reason to sell the dollar. We expect a correction for now, but the hourly timeframe clearly shows that the pair has been trading within a sideways channel for over three weeks. The 1.1274 level, which serves as the lower boundary of this channel, still hasn't been broken. Flat conditions will persist as long as the price remains in the channel.

The EUR/USD pair's average volatility over the last five trading days as of May 5 is 82 pips, which is considered "average." On Monday, we expect the pair to move between 1.1218 and 1.1382. The long-term regression channel is directed upward, indicating a short-term uptrend. The CCI indicator has entered the overbought area three times recently, resulting in only a minor correction. Nearest Support Levels: S1 1.1230 S2 1.1108 S3 1.0986 Nearest Resistance Levels: R1 1.1353 R2 1.1475 R3 1.1597 Trading Recommendations: EUR/USD has begun a new round of downward correction within a broader uptrend. For months now, we've maintained that we expect the euro to fall in the medium term, and that hasn't changed. The dollar still lacks reasons for a medium-term rallyexcept for Donald Trump. However, that one reason alone has continued to drag the dollar lower, and the market is ignoring all other factors for now. If you trade based purely on technicals or Trump headlines, then long positions remain relevant as long as the price is above the moving average, with a target at 1.1475. If the price is below the moving average, short positions are appropriate, with targets at 1.1230 and 1.1218. It's hard to believe in a strong dollar rally, but a dollar rebound is still possible. Explanation of Illustrations: Linear Regression Channels help determine the current trend. If both channels are aligned, it indicates a strong trend. Moving Average Line (settings: 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and guides the trading direction. Murray Levels act as target levels for movements and corrections. Volatility Levels (red lines) represent the likely price range for the pair over the next 24 hours based on current volatility readings. CCI Indicator: If it enters the oversold region (below -250) or overbought region (above +250), it signals an impending trend reversal in the opposite direction.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Overview May 7: The Fed Meeting Becomes the Dollar's New "Headache"

The EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade strictly sideways on Tuesday. The broader flat market has now lasted for nearly a month, and in addition to that, the market seems to have formed another, narrower sideways channel visible on the hourly time frame. In other words, we're now witnessing a flat within a flat a total standstill. Last week, even a slew of key U.S. data couldn't help traders start a new trend, and there haven't been any significant developments this week. However, there are a few points worth highlighting.

First, the new trading week began with fresh tariffs introduced by Donald Trump. This time, the consensus is that he has targeted the domestic film industry. It's no secret that most of the world's film production centers in the U.S., but much of the filming happens abroad for economic reasons. Trump decided to "fix" this. Now, any film shot outside the United States will be subject to a 100% import tax. In our view, these tariffs are not as large-scale or impactful as those on automobile or steel imports, or those targeting specific countries. If Trump wants to damage his own film industry, that's his prerogative. However, these new tariffs make one thing clear: Trump's policy direction has not changed, despite his three-week pause.

Second, we'll get the Federal Reserve's policy meeting results this evening. Although the outcome is essentially known Powell has repeatedly stressed there is no rush to ease monetary policy the market could still start trading more actively. What can we expect from the Fed and Powell this evening? Either Powell's rhetoric remains unchanged, which would not inspire confidence in dollar buyers, or his tone turns more dovish, giving the market a fresh reason to sell the dollar.

In either case, a rate hike is not on the table, and the U.S. dollar has already fallen hard even when the European Central Bank was cutting rates and the Fed was holding steady. Therefore, the most likely outcome this evening is that the dollar either declines or holds its ground, but not more than that. Of course, we must acknowledge that anything is possible in the FX market. Last week is a perfect example: despite a flood of disappointing U.S. macroeconomic data, the dollar grew for four straight days.

Logic and consistency remain in short supply, so even a dollar rally on dovish remarks from Powell is not impossible. Still, we base our forecasts on logic, fundamentals, and macroeconomics. How can one reasonably forecast dollar strength if the Fed may soften its stance? Regardless, the dollar has not appreciated enough in recent weeks to claim that a downtrend in EUR/USD has begun.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for May 8, 2025

As expected, the Federal Reserve left its monetary policy unchanged following yesterday's meeting. Jerome Powell only slightly reinforced the market's expectations of rising inflation. Markets still anticipate the first rate cut in July, which is expected to coincide with the Treasury's launch of a new debt issuance cycle (at this point, Trump is likely to convince Congress to raise the debt ceiling without difficulty). Today, important data from Germany is due. The trade balance for March is expected to rise from 17.7 billion to 19.0 billion, and industrial production is forecast to show a 0.9% increase for the same month.

The technical picture for the euro also supports a bullish outlook. On the daily chart, we see a test of support with Tuesday's low, while Wednesday's black candle failed to reach this support. This morning, the price resumed its upward movement. A move by the Marlin oscillator into positive territory would confirm further growth. Three growth targets are 1.1420, 1.1535, and 1.1692 (October 2021 high). From that perspective, the current 1.12761.1420 range appears to be a consolidation zone before continuing a medium-term upward trend.

On the H4 chart, the Marlin oscillator has formed a brief consolidation and is now preparing to enter the bullish zone. However, the balance line indicator currently acts as resistance, with the MACD line at 1.1360 being the next resistance level. Strong German data may help the price break through these technical barriers. If the price consolidates below the 1.1276 support level, an alternative scenario involving a decline toward the 1.11101.1150 zone remains possible.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Overview May 12: The Dollar's Success Is Unstable

The EUR/USD currency pair slightly rebounded upward on Friday, and overall, it has been gradually sliding down for several weeks. The movement has been so sluggish that we recently classified it as a flat market. However, at this point on the hourly timeframe, the pair has exited the sideways channel, making it reasonable to refer to this as a downward correction against the three-month uptrend. Were there reasons for the dollar to strengthen? Yes, and quite a few. The current fundamental backdrop consists primarily of the trade war initiated by Trumpthis factor alone outweighs all others, which collectively have no more than a 20% influence on the market. As a result, no matter how good the news from the U.S. may be (if it's unrelated to trade conflict), the dollar struggles to grow. In recent weeks, we saw a fairly strong NonFarm Payrolls report, a reasonably solid unemployment figure (under the current circumstances), and a decent ISM Business Activity Index. In addition, the Federal Reserve once again left the key interest rate unchanged, and Jerome Powell reiterated that inflation remains the top priority and there's no rush to cut rates. These major macroeconomic indicators and policy actions supported the dollar. The only disappointment was the Q1 U.S. GDP report, which traders had largely priced in. While no one expected an outright contraction, the result reflected a logical response to Trump's trade policies. Whether the economy slowed or contracted isn't the main concern; the real risk is that continued trade conflict could turn this into a long-term recession. That would be a serious problem for the U.S. economy and the dollar. It's also worth noting that over the last three weeks, Trump hasn't introduced any new tariffs and now speaks only of upcoming deals and potential tariff reductions for countries that meet U.S. demands. Currently, only one deal has been signedwith the UK. Many experts see this more as a symbolic agreement designed to push other countries to the negotiation table. However, deals with economic heavyweights like China and the EU are what really matter for the dollar and the U.S. economy, and progress there remains lacking. So yes, the dollar has strengthened in recent weeks, but the market is still reluctant to buy it due to ongoing concerns over Trump. If trade tensions continue to ease, the dollar might gradually recover. But everyone understands that Trump is unpredictable. We wouldn't be surprised if the "first act" of his performance (trade deals) is followed by a "second act" that spells trouble again.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for May 14, 2025

On Tuesday, the euro chose not to continue resisting market sentiment and joined the broader risk-on trend. The U.S. stock index S&P 500 rose by 0.72%, the dollar index declined by 0.76%, and the euro appreciated by 0.88% (99 pips). The euro was also bolstered by positive ZEW economic sentiment data, which rose from -18.5 in April to 11.6 in May.

On the daily chart, the price rebounded from the MACD line, broke above the 1.1110/50 range, and is approaching the target level of 1.1276. A breakout of this resistance would open the path to the next target at 1.1420. The Marlin oscillator has reversed to the upside.

On the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator has moved into bullish territory. The price is nearing the MACD line. A consolidation above this line (1.1214) would enable an attack on the 1.1276 resistance level (the July 2023 high). It is unlikely that an alternative bearish scenario will develop. For it to unfold, the price would need to consolidate below the daily MACD line, under the 1.1100 level.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY Forecast for May 15, 2025

By the end of yesterday's trading session, the USD/JPY pair declined by 73 pips, testing the MACD indicator line with a lower shadow. It's clear that an attempt to consolidate within the 145.08145.91 range was made, but the effort was premature due to the presence of the MACD line within this zone.

In about 24 hours, the MACD line may move below the lower boundary of the range, allowing the price to prepare for a breakout toward the target level at 143.45. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator has broken through the 23.6% retracement level, indicating that the bears have support. Overall, we expect a breakout of the 145.08145.91 range within two days, although there's a slight chance it could happen immediately, as it did on April 10 (marked by a green checkmark). Therefore, we are closely monitoring the market's developments.

The price has consolidated below the MACD line on the four-hour chart, and the Marlin oscillator has settled into bearish territory. As long as the opening gap remains unfilled, the overall price trajectory remains downward. After a brief consolidation, the price will likely continue toward the target level of 143.45.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for May 19, 2025

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On Friday, the euro failed to sustain its upward movement, but it also didn't fall below the daily-scale MACD indicator linethe day closed with a black candlestick, but still above the upper boundary of the 1.1110/50 range.

Monday began with a slight upward move and a small gapagain, around the MACD line. After the gap quickly closes, the price will most likely head upward toward the target level at 1.1266. After three days of consolidation, the Marlin oscillator's signal line has turned upward.

On the H4 chart, the price on Friday was also supported by the MACD line, but the Marlin oscillator broke downward out of its wedge pattern, transforming the structure into a flag, which is also considered a continuation pattern. Thus, under the main scenario, we expect a bullish reversal and an attempt to consolidate above the 1.1266 level to pave the way for further growth toward 1.1420.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for May 22, 2025

On Wednesday, the euro successfully consolidated above the 1.1266 level and the balance indicator line. The next target levels are 1.1420 and 1.1535. The Marlin oscillator is about to enter the area of upward trend momentum.

Today, strong economic reports are expected from the Eurozone. Germany's IFO Business Expectations Index for May is forecast to rise from 87.4 to 88.0, while the Eurozone Composite PMI may increase from 50.4 to 50.7. In the U.S., the Services PMI for May is expected to rise from 50.8 to 51.0 points. These figures could help maintain market risk appetite.

The price continues its planned upward movement above the indicator lines and support levels on the four-hour chart. The Marlin oscillator has slightly pulled back to ease tension and prepare for further growth.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for May 23, 2025

The Eurozone PMI data for May, published yesterday, was disappointing. The Manufacturing PMI dropped from 49.0 to 48.4 (vs. expectations of 49.2), and the Services PMI declined from 50.1 to 48.9 (vs. forecast of 50.4). In addition, several European Central Bank members (Knot, Wunsch, Centeno) spoke in favor of a "timely" rate cut at the next meeting. These developments pushed the euro down by 47 pips. On the other hand, the U.S. PMI data was strong: Manufacturing PMI came in at 52.3 (vs. 49.2 forecast and 50.2 in April) Services PMI rose from 50.8 to 52.3 (vs. forecast of 51.0) Initial jobless claims fell from 229K to 227K Despite this, stock indices closed mixed (S&P 500 -0.04%), which forced the markets to pause and reassess. Thus, European developments alone are unlikely to change the current upward trend in the euro. Instead, this signals the need to watch equity markets more closely.

The euro only slightly pierced through the 1.1256 support level on the daily chart. The Marlin oscillator bounced off the boundary of the bullish territory, suggesting a technical correction for the euro. Today began with upward momentum, and Marlin is again attempting to break through the zero line from below. A white daily candle today could lay the groundwork for stronger bullish momentum next week. At this point, the market seems to have already factored in the rate cut expected in June. Today, Germany's Q1 GDP will be released (forecast: +0.2% after a -0.2% drop in Q4). The U.S. will publish new home sales data for April, expected at 694K versus 724K in March. These figures could further support the euro's growth if they meet expectations.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for May 26, 2025

On Friday, the euro successfully broke above both the balance indicator line and the recent high from May 21. The price is now approaching the next target level at 1.1420, and a breakout above this level would open the path to the next target at 1.1535. If the price consolidates above that, the third target at 1.1692 will come into play.

The Marlin oscillator has established itself in bullish territory and will now continue to support the price movement as long as it does not enter the overbought zone under the main scenario. The price is climbing above the upward-sloping balance and MACD indicator lines on the four-hour chart. A consolidation above the nearest resistance at 1.1420 will allow the price to continue this upward path.

There is a suggestion that the price and the Marlin oscillator may be setting up conditions for a bearish divergence, but this impression emerged after a brief dip below the zero line (gray rectangle), which is now interpreted as a false signal. Therefore, the signal line may continue rising into the overbought zone, and no divergence may form.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY Forecast for May 28, 2025

Yesterday, the USD/JPY pair posted solid growth0.90% or 149 pipson the back of a 0.42% strengthening of the U.S. dollar index. As a result, the price is now trading above the daily balance, and MACD indicator lines, and even the Marlin oscillator has moved into positive territory.

The price may enter the 145.08145.91 range, but there is a risk that the breakout above the indicator lines is a false move. If the price drops below 143.45 (reinforced by the MACD line), this would confirm the false breakout and support a decline toward the target support at 141.70, potentially continuing to 139.59. If the price does enter the 145.08145.91 range but fails to hold within it, a reversal back to 143.45 is also expected soon after. Only a confirmed breakout above the 145.91 level would open the door to an alternative scenario, implying further growth toward 148.66.

On the 4-hour chart, the price has slowed down its advance after interacting with the MACD line. The correction reached 38.2% of the latest downward leg, sufficient to complete a corrective phase. Overall, the pair is in a neutral state, and price action over the next one to two days may consist of sideways or erratic movement without clear directional bias.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for May 29, 2025

Main News of the Day: The U.S. Federal Trade Court has blocked the permanent implementation of import tariffs introduced by President Trump, ruling that he exceeded his authority. As an initial reaction to this news, the U.S. Dollar Index rose by 0.53%, S&P 500 futures added 1.50%, and the euro is moving toward testing the target support level at 1.1066. A breakdown below this level would open the path toward 1.0955.

We do not oppose such an unexpected turn of events, at least not in terms of a broad and long-term dollar strengthening, since we have viewed the rise of anti-dollar currencies as a temporary phenomenon from the beginning of the sanctions war. But will today become a pivotal moment? It's quite possibleif, on the weekly chart, the price consolidates below the MACD line, which coincides with May's low at 1.1066. Should this happen, the first downside target would be the March 26 low at 1.0733.

The daily chart shows that the price has broken below the MACD line and the support level at 1.1266. The Marlin oscillator has plunged deeper into negative territory. However, if today's candlestick closes at least at the opening level, this downward move may prove to be false, and the dollar's global advance would be postponed. In that case, the euro might attempt to overcome the 1.1535 level, with a target of 1.1692. Considering market momentum, the absence of clear reversal patterns, stock market optimism, rising yields on U.S. government bonds, and the lack of a yield curve inversion, we maintain the euro's growth as the main scenario.

On the H4 chart, the price has settled below the MACD line and the 1.1266 level. However, this move may turn out to be false. A rise above the MACD linespecifically above the 1.1290 mark, which also coincides with the MACD line on the daily chartwould be a strong signal for growth toward the target level of 1.1420.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on June 2, 2025

The euro closed Friday with a black candle but consolidated above the balance and MACD indicator lines. During today's Pacific session, the price surpassed Friday's opening and approached its high.

The Marlin oscillator's signal line turned upward from the neutral zero line. It is evident that the target level of 1.1420 is likely to be reached soon. A breakout above this resistance opens the path toward the 1.1535 target. On the H4 chart, the price reversed upward from the support of the MACD line on Friday.

The Marlin oscillator returned to the growth zone after a false dip into the negative area (gray rectangle). The trend is upward on both timeframes, and we expect the price to reach the 1.1535 target level. The upward movement will likely continue toward the 1.1692 level the peak from October 2021.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for USD/JPY on June 3, 2025

On Monday, the yen strongly broke through the MACD line support and the target level at 143.45, moving 134 pips. The Marlin oscillator has settled into the bearish territory.

If the price fails to climb back above 143.45, it will next work toward testing the 141.70 support. A drop below this level would open the path toward the 139.59 target (the low from September 2024).

On the four-hour scale, the price has consolidated below the 143.45 level. Before the price could retest it as resistance, the MACD line had already dipped below the level, reinforcing it. The probability of the price rising above 143.45, which the Marlin oscillator had indicated, has significantly decreased. We expect the downward trend to continue.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for June 4, 2025

Yesterday's inflation data from the Eurozone slightly slowed the euro's growth amid a continued stock market rally (Dow Jones +0.51%). However, considering the market's growth amid several challengesincluding China's ban on rare earth metal exports, difficulties in U.S. negotiations with both China and Europe, hints that Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine might be restored, and impending global energy shortages due to AI developmentalong with a proposed bill in Congress to impose a 20% tax on foreign investor income, this market rally appears overly optimistic. Specifically, Eurozone core CPI for May fell from 2.7% YoY to 2.3% YoY (forecast was 2.4% YoY), and overall CPI declined from 2.2% YoY to 1.9% YoY, against an aggressive forecast of 2.0% YoY.

Yet the euro remains optimistic yesterday's decline didn't reach any indicator lines on the daily scale, and today started with a new round of growth. Also, the Marlin oscillator's signal line turned upward without reaching the border of the downward trend territory. Only if the price consolidates below the MACD line, under the 1.1343 mark, would a deeper correction (targeting 1.1066) become possible. However, the price needs to break above the immediate resistance at 1.1420 to resume growth. The targets remain the same: 1.1535 and 1.1692.

On the H4 chart, the price consolidated below the MACD line yesterday. However, this seems to have been a false breakout, as the Marlin oscillator is now turning upward from the zero line. We believe that consolidation above 1.1420 unlike the situation on June 23 (gray rectangle) will form a more sustainable structure for further growth.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for June 5, 2025

After three days of struggle, the euro has broken through the 1.1420 resistance level. Now, the target at 1.1535 is open. A breakthrough above this level would allow the growth to continue toward 1.1692. The Marlin oscillator, positioned in positive territory, persistently pushes the price upward.

Such a signal on the day the European Central Bank is expected to cut rates is concerning. We believe that the euro's complex rise since mid-May has already taken this rate cut into account, particularly when we compare the euro's performance to that of other currencies, which have been stronger. Market participants may find hawkish hints in the comments from monetary officials (as is often the case) and will continue to drive the euro higher.

On the four-hour chart, the price has settled above the MACD line and above the 1.1420 level, while the Marlin oscillator is rising in positive territory. We expect the upward movement to continue.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for June 9, 2025

Moderately optimistic US employment data revived the dollar, causing it to rise by 0.44%. The euro dropped by 50 pips. A divergence with the stock market occurred as the S&P 500 rose by 1.03%. However, one day of decoupling is not enough to push the euro out of its risk-on pursuit, especially since, technically, there is no such process at the moment Friday's decline was precisely halted at the daily MACD line (1.1372).

The price needs to consolidate below Friday's low to reach 1.1266. The Marlin oscillator has also not left the growth territory. However, for the possibility of advancing upward toward the target level of 1.1535, the price must consolidate above 1.1420. Here, the stock market could lend support, maintaining resilience even after Tesla's epic stock plunge. Beyond that, we expect growth toward 1.1692.

On the H4 chart, the divergence has played out, and the Marlin oscillator has secured a position in negative territory. At the same time, Marlin has formed a new ascending channel (in green), suggesting the divergence may have already been completed. A stronger confirmation of the expected growth would be a breakout above the MACD line around the 1.1450 mark.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for June 11, 2025

Yesterday, the US dollar attempted to push the euro below key technical support levels marked by the daily Balance and MACD indicator lines, but the euro withstood the pressure and closed the day above the 1.1420 resistance level.

Today opened above this level, and the indicator lines, marking a critical moment: it's the last day the single currency can potentially develop an upward move, as the price is now at the apex of a triangle formed by the target level and the MACD line. If today's candlestick turns out to be bearish (a "black" day), the 1.1266 target will come into play. However, the main scenario remains bullish, targeting 1.1536, and a solid consolidation above this level would allow a continuation of growth toward 1.1632.

On the four-hour chart, the price is in a weak technical position due to trading below the MACD line, but it is holding above 1.1420, providing some groundwork for an attack on the MACD line at 1.1470. The Marlin oscillator is consolidating along the zero line, offering no real support to the price at the moment. However, the short-term trend remains upward, and a breakout to the upsideboth for the price and the oscillatoris more likely than a decline.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for June 12, 2025

The U.S. inflation data released on Wednesday stirred the markets: the dollar index dropped by 0.47%, WTI oil surged by 5.54%, gold rose by 1.27%, and 5-year U.S. Treasury yields fell from 4.08% to 4.01%. The core CPI for May remained unchanged at 2.8% y/y, falling short of the 2.9% y/y forecast, while the headline CPI rose from 2.3% to 2.4% y/y, below the 2.5% forecast. Investors interpreted these figures as potentially influencing the Federal Reserve toward easing its policy, all while preserving a semblance of independence. While Fed funds futures still suggest a rate cut in September, the bond market appears to be pricing in such a move as early as the upcoming June 18 meeting, as yield curve inversions are becoming more widespread. This is enough to sustain euro-buying interest for at least another week.

According to the weekly chart, we expect EUR/USD to rise first toward the target level at 1.1692, followed by a move to 1.1815, the September 2018 high, which aligns with the upper boundary of the price channel.

The daily chart shows the price testing the first resistance at 1.1535. A minor pause may occur after breaking above this level, as it is near the April 21 high, and some consolidation is likely before continuation. Beyond that, we expect a rally toward 1.1692.

On the H4 chart, the price broke above both indicator lines and is growing steadily, while the Marlin oscillator broke out of consolidation to the upside. The initial bullish momentum has already occurred.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Overview June 13: America's Economy Gets Lucky

The EUR/USD currency pair continued its strong upward movement throughout Thursday. Is anyone still puzzled as to why the U.S. dollar keeps falling? From our point of view, the reasons are obvious and don't even require deep analysis.

Essentially, there's only one reason Donald Trump. Before Trump became president of the U.S. for a second time, the dollar was preparing to storm parity with the euro. And this was a realistic goal, considering the growth rates of the U.S. and European economies. However, the new-old leader of the U.S. took immediate action, and the markets tumbled.

While the U.S. stock market recovered quickly (thanks to internal demand for still-attractive American equities), the dollar was not so lucky. In fact, Trump is probably satisfied with the results of his first four months in office. The dollar is plummeting, and even during his first term he wanted to weaken the currency by pushing the Federal Reserve to lower rates, arguing that U.S. goods were too expensive for foreign buyers.

Now the dollar has significantly depreciated, and stock markets have hardly lost anything. Is it time to declare victory? But it's far too early for that. Not a single trade deal has been signed so far, and the U.S. may declare a default on its external obligations this summer. The economy slowed by 0.3% in the first quarter after several years of steady 23% quarterly growth. Inflation is rising albeit slowly (which is lucky for the U.S. economy, considering the volume of tariffs).

High inflation combined with low economic growth equals stagflation. So we can say this: Trump has achieved some of his goals, but who in the U.S. benefits? Who will thank Trump for higher inflation, slower economic growth, domestic instability, protests, and unrest in many American cities? As for the dollar and its movement on the forex market, things are now quite straightforward.

Nothing is protecting the U.S. currency from further declines. Even positive fundamental and macroeconomic data, which do occasionally appear, are only enough to trigger minor corrections. So, the renewed dollar collapse does not surprise us at all.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD Overview June 16: How Trump Is Undermining the Dollar

The GBP/USD currency pair will remain under the influence of geopolitics and politics in the new week. Essentially, we've been saying the same thing every day for the past four months: all movements in the foreign exchange market are directly tied to Donald Trump's actions, decisions, and plans. It's only been four months since Trump became president, and look at how many global events have occurred! It's not just about the trade war that Trump has unleashed against China and 74 other countries. One can also point to the Republican's inability to resolve the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, even though he, as a U.S. presidential candidate, had promised to do so "within 24 hours." Trump likely believed that his authority gave him enough leverage over Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky to convince them to end the conflict. In practice, however, he had no influence on the two presidents of the warring nations. So, Trump turned to his favorite toolthreats. He said that if Kyiv refused to engage in peace talks, he would freeze all aid to Ukraine. If Russia refused peace, he would impose a new sanctions package on Moscow and introduce a 500% tariff on all countries importing energy resources from Russia. As one might expect, these measures also failed to produce significant results. There's also the "One big, beautiful bill" that Trump is eager to pass. Almost all experts have called this bill "disastrous" for the U.S. economy, as it entails cutting support for the poor and vulnerable segments of the population while lowering taxes... mainly for the wealthy and well-off. Trump has also proposed making tips tax-exempt. Many experts, including Elon Musk, have stated that this new law would increase the U.S. national debt by another 3 trillion dollars. Let us recall that Trump had promised to reduce the national debt. And the conflict between Iran and Israel, which has taken on new dimensions under Trump, is the cherry on top. The leader of the Republican Party, who promised to end many wars and styled himself as a peacemaker deserving of a Nobel Prize, has effectively admitted that the White House is behind the attacks on Iran, which refuses to abandon uranium enrichment and nuclear weapons development. Trump is now giving Iran a chance to resume negotiations, but it's clear that Tehran will not abandon its long-standing policy (which has remained unchanged for decades despite sweeping sanctions) just because Washington wants it to. Thus, it seems a new war in the Middle East involving the U.S. is on the horizon.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for June 18, 2025

On the final day before the Federal Reserve meeting, the euro could not withstand the broad market risk-off sentiment and dropped by 80 pips, halting at the MACD line on the daily chart. We anticipate dovish or even explicitly dovish signals from today's Fed release and Jerome Powell's remarks.

We do not even rule out a rate cut, despite the market pricing in a 97.9% chance of the rate being held unchanged. Still, we note that over the past week, the probability of a 25-basis-point cut has increased from 1.8% to 2.1%, and the yield curve divergence in government bonds has become more pronounced compared to a week ago. Moreover, the Middle East conflict could serve as a convenient reason for the Fed to lower rates "without regard for Trump" or currency speculators. If this happens, the dollar and the stock market may m

On the H4 chart, the price has formed a flag a classic trend continuation pattern. To confirm this signal, the pair must consolidate above the resistance level of 1.1535, which would also signify a breakout above the MACD line. Now, we just have to wait for the Fed's decision.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for June 23, 2025

EUR/USD A bearish divergence has formed on the weekly chart for the euro. We are preparing for a reversal into a long-term downward trend, but divergences with a gap often unfold in a complex manner. Thus, the price may still work through the target level at 1.1692, with the divergence evolving in form. A similar scenario occurred in NovemberDecember 2020.

Additionally, we are keeping a close eye on the stock market, as we believe the anticipated reversal will likely coincide with a market correction. On the daily chart, Monday opened below the MACD line. If the day ends with a black candlestick, we may see consolidation in the 1.14201.1535 range for a few days before the gap is closed.

Closing the gap would imply a breakout above the MACD line and possibly beyond 1.1535, opening the path toward the target level at 1.1692 (October 2021 high). There are also prominent levels above this area from 2021, which the price may attempt to reach. However, that would invalidate the weekly divergence.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Overview June 25: Why Did the Dollar Fall Again?

The EUR/USD currency pair continued its upward movement on Tuesday, which had started on Monday. Let us recall that on Monday, everyone expected a "rollercoaster" right at the market open, i.e., during the night. However, the real action came closer to the evening. The first two trading days of the week were packed with eventsof various kindscapable of supporting both the dollar and the euro. So why did the U.S. currency fall out of favor with the market once again? If we were to list all the reasons, one article certainly wouldn't be enough. So, let's start with the most local and obvious ones. As early as Monday, we mentioned that the dollar might benefit from another escalation in the Middle East, this time initiated by the U.S. But just think: can the dollar even hypothetically be considered a "safe haven" if one of the warring parties is the U.S.? The second reason is that Trump launched a strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, and the next day, missiles were flying backtoward Qatar, Israel, and U.S. military bases. And, notably, Iran hit the American bases. The third reason is that Trump thanked Iran for warning Washington in advance about the upcoming strike. Honestly, the only word that comes to mind here is "farce." Can this even be a war if the participants warn each other before launching attacks? Naturally, the market immediately concluded that this was not a war but a performance. That might be better in some wayssince human casualties were avoided, and that is most important. But at the same time, if the dollar had any hopes of strengthening due to a Middle East escalation, the market realized yesterday that this "escalation" was theatrical and staged. And it gets even more bizarre. On Tuesday morning, Donald Trump announced a ceasefire. The U.S. President was so eager to establish peace somewhereanywherethat he declared the war over without waiting for any official statements from Iran or Israel. And just a few hours later, Iranian missiles took to the skies again. Once more, if this weren't about deadly weapons of mass destruction, the whole situation could be considered a comedy. For the rest of Tuesday, Trump posted angry messages every half hour on his own social network, expressing his dissatisfaction not only with Iran but also with Israel. In the afternoon, Trump tried to persuade Israel not to launch retaliatory strikes, and we're left wonderingdoes the U.S. President believe that Iranian and Israeli leaders check his Twitter feed before initiating missile attacks? Frankly, we don't even know how to respond to this circus anymore. But the market certainly does. Why should it buy the dollareven without the caveat "if Donald Trump remains president"? America has turned from a country with the strongest economy and military into a laughingstock. And these are just the reasons the dollar fell on Monday and Tuesday. Should we even bother listing why the U.S. currency has fallen for five months?

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Bitcoin Forecast for June 30, 2025

Bitcoin Bitcoin spent last week in a very strong bullish mood (up 7.84%), fully overlapping the weekly candle from June 1521 and breaking above the internal line of the price channel. It seems poised to carry that momentum into the new week.

The signal line of the Marlin oscillator sharply turned upward without testing the zero line, indicating readiness for active growth. After the price breaks above the 111,952 level (May's high), the next target opens up at 117,730 the next internal line of the rising price channel.

On the daily chart, the price has moved sideways and slightly upward for the past six sessions, staying above the price channel line. This morning, the price broke above the MACD line, supported by the Marlin oscillator turning upward. The next expected move is a firm consolidation above the MACD line.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for July 3, 2025

Ahead of today's U.S. employment data release for June, the euro consolidated near the price channel line on the daily chart. The long lower shadow of the candlestick suggests that market participants were inclined to buy the euro, especially as all preliminary labor data have been pointing in that direction. For example, ADP private sector employment showed a decline of 33,000, versus a forecasted increase of 99,000, and the May figure was revised downward from 37,000 to 29,000. The forecast for Nonfarm Payrolls is 120,000, down from 139,000 in May, while the unemployment rate is expected to rise from 4.2% to 4.3%. We do not expect stronger figures, as the number of unemployed people has been increasing on a weekly basis. However, there is a significant caveat the data can easily be "adjusted" in a more favorable direction. This kind of data manipulation was widely used from 2007 to 2015, likely with the sole purpose of regulating the market.

We now await the data release. Upside targets: 1.1905, 1.1990. Downside targets: 1.1663/92, 1.1535. It's worth noting that an increase in the euro does not necessarily open up prospects for the continuation of the medium-term uptrend, whereas a decline and consolidation below the MACD line would likely reverse the trend (target: 1.1066). The Marlin oscillator indicates bullish weakness.

On the H4 chart, this weakness is more clearly visible: Marlin is almost fixed in negative territory. We await further developments.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for July 7, 2025

On the weekly chart, the price has precisely reached the intersection point of the Fibonacci ray and the upper boundary of the price channel. This occurred on the first bar after the 11th Fibonacci time line a point which, in most cases, marks the beginning of a trend reversal. The divergence between the price and the Marlin oscillator further reinforces this signal.

Statistically, movements of this type tend to span two ranges of the Fibonacci fan, which in this case could bring the price down to the 1.0179 level the January low. On the daily chart, the price is consolidating and waiting for a catalyst.

On the H4 chart, the price remains close to the balance line and is attempting a natural approach toward the MACD line (1.1744) to break through its support. A firm move below this level would lead to price consolidation in preparation for a breakout under 1.1692.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for July 9, 2025

On Tuesday, the euro attempted a downward move but failed to reach support at the MACD line, stopping at the target level of 1.1692. The day closed with a white candlestick, increasing the likelihood of a price rebound toward retesting the upper boundary of the price channel at 1.1830.

For a downward continuation, the price must settle below the support reached yesterday and also below the MACD line. However, this would require at least two more days. On Friday, a large batch of data is expected from the UK, meaning that the key developments are likely to unfold next week. Trump has postponed the introduction of tariffs from July 9 to August 1.

On the four-hour chart, a convergence has formed. The likelihood of a rise toward 1.1830 now has more technical justification. The MACD line near the 1.1771-mark acts as interim resistanceif this level is broken, the main target will be automatically unlocked.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.