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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 20, 2025

Today, the euro begins trading within the range established on January 15, where it remained throughout last week. Market attention is heavily focused on the inauguration of Donald Trump. If political and economic developments unfold as Trump has indicated, we can anticipate a strengthening of the dollar and a weakening of stock indices.

The euro appears to be set for a decline. On the daily chart, the Marlin oscillator has formed a triangle within a descending trend zone, which increases the likelihood of both the indicator and the price moving downward. A definitive signal for a price breakout to the downside would occur if the price breaches the 1.0211 level, which coincides with the oscillator's signal line breaking below the lower boundary of the triangle. The target for this move is 1.0135.

On the four-hour chart, the price has significantly reinforced the support of the MACD line, meaning that a breakdown of this support could trigger an impulsive decline. The Marlin oscillator is currently at the neutral zero line, suggesting potential synchronized movement. A firm break below 1.0265 would enable the price to effectively challenge the 1.0211 signal level.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 28, 2025

The main event on Monday was the launch of an open-source AI model by the Chinese startup DeepSeek. According to the developers, they achieved this at significantly lower costs compared to OpenAI, Microsoft, Google, and certainly Nvidia. As a result, by the end of the day, the tech-heavy Nasdaq dropped by 3.07%, the S&P 500 fell by 1.46%, and the Dollar Index rose by 0.08%.

The EUR/USD pair managed to stay within the 1.04581.0520 range on Monday, but today it began to decline, already falling below the lower boundary of this range. The Marlin oscillator is showing signs of a stronger downward reversal. A battle is likely at the 1.0350 level, as support is bolstered by the MACD line. If the price reaches this level, it will indicate the strength and determination of the bears. Ultimately, the pair is expected to target the support of 1.0135.

On the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator has consolidated below the zero line, and the price is attempting to settle below the 1.0458 level. If this consolidation is successful, there is a high likelihood that the price will break through the MACD line at 1.0412. With the FOMC meeting scheduled for tomorrow, where no rate cuts are expected, market participants may begin to show increased activity as early as today.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Overview of the EUR/USD Pair on February 17: A Sharp Rally in the Euro That Means Nothing

The EUR/USD currency pair continued its rapid ascent on Friday. At the beginning of the week, we were cautious about further euro appreciation, but by the end of the week, it became clear that this movement was not only possible but had already materialized. Over the week, the euro gained 200 pips despite a lack of objective fundamental reasons. Last week was filled with fundamental and macroeconomic events. Some supported the dollar, while others favored the euro. Now, let's break down what exactly supported each currency. To start, let's list the reports and events that worked in favor of the euro: the second estimate of Eurozone GDP for Q4 and the U.S. retail sales report. That's it. This is the entire list. The European GDP report was published on Friday, meaning that the euro had already covered 90% of its upward movement by the time it came out. GDP can hardly be considered a strong positive factor, as economic growth reached only +0.1% against a forecast of 0%, making the deviation minimal and the overall growth insignificant. Meanwhile, U.S. retail sales fell by 0.9% versus the expected -0.1%, and this report was also released on Friday. Now, let's list all the events that supported the U.S. dollar: two speeches by Jerome Powell in Congress, where the Federal Reserve Chair reaffirmed that the central bank is in no rush to cut interest rates; the U.S. inflation report, which showed inflation accelerating for the fourth consecutive month, reinforcing Powell's statements and lowering the likelihood of even two rate cuts in 2025; the actual inflation rate, now at 3%1.5 times higher than the Fed's 2% target; Germany's inflation, which fell to 2.3%, slightly increasing the probability of further ECB rate cuts; Eurozone industrial production, which declined by 1.1% in December, worse than the forecast of -0.6%; and U.S. industrial production, which grew by 0.5%, exceeding expectations of +0.3%. It is evident that most of the events favored the dollar over the euro. The reason for the euro's rise is straightforward, and we had anticipated it even before this rally began. The daily timeframe remains in a corrective phase that has not yet concluded. This correction has been relatively weak compared to the euro's three-month decline. This technical factor is the primary reason behind the euro's rise. Before initiating another global downtrend, market makers need to accumulate new short positions, and for that to happen, prices must rise to create more favorable selling conditions. Corrections typically take time, and the euro could continue to rise for another month or two, although the increases are likely to be modest and accompanied by frequent downward pullbacks. The only unexpected aspect last week was the intensity of the rally, which exceeded expectations.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for March 10, 2025

February's U.S. employment data, released on Friday, was disappointing. Non-farm payrolls were close to expectations (151,000 versus 159,000), but other indicators showed significant deterioration. The labor force participation rate dropped from 62.6% to 62.4%, overall unemployment increased from 4.0% to 4.1%, and the broader U-6 unemployment rate jumped from 7.5% to 8.0%. In response to these developments and declining government bond yields, the euro gained 48 pips.

So far, signs of a crisis have not fully emerged but are anticipated. Even Federal Reserve officials and key business leaders are hinting at potential economic challenges. Christopher Waller has suggested that the Fed may lower interest rates three times by the end of the year. Meanwhile, the euro is expected to rise further, targeting levels of 1.0949 and 1.1027. Given that the Marlin oscillator is nearing the overbought zone, a correction could occur from one of these levels.

On the H4 chart, the Marlin oscillator has reset after a sharp decline from its peak on March 5-6. It is now positioned to resume growth with renewed strength, aiming to break above the nearest resistance level.


Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Overview. April 14: The DollarFrom Leader to Laggard



The EUR/USD currency pair continued its steady rally on Friday. At this point, there are no more questions about what is happening in the currency marketit's as simple as it gets. Donald Trump keeps raising the stakes, attempting to force (there's no better word) every country trading with the U.S. to do so strictly on American terms. Naturally, not everyone is thrilled with this turn of events, and the much-talked-about line of eager trade delegations to the White House has yet to appear. Speaking of Trump, he has never been shy with wordsand this time is no different. According to the sitting U.S. President, all countries are ready to "lick (censored)" to get a trade deal with the U.S. It's worth noting that these are official statements by the President of the United States. In our view, this borders on surrealism and absurdity. Trump continues to insult, humiliate, and issue ultimatums while waging trade wars under the guise of being a peacemaker. The results of his actions are nothing short of comical. Trump wants to bring back jobs and factories to the U.S., grow the economy, reduce the trade deficit, and cut national debt. Currently, the outcomes are the exact opposite. Investors and traders are fleeing American assets, and many notable figures are leaving the U.S. The economy is beginning to slow, and now even the most conservative analysts are forecasting a recession. Inflation is declining for now, but no one doubts it will accelerate significantly soon. Jobs aren't rushing back to the U.S., and factories aren't planning large-scale relocations. On the contrary, companies are seeking ways to avoid Trump's tariffsbut we haven't heard of any major firm moving production back to the U.S. As for the national debtthanks to Trump's policies, it's only likely to increase. Remember that government bonds are traditionally considered a stable and safe investment tool. U.S. Treasuries are now being sold off. As a result, bond yields are risingand yield is effectively the cost of borrowing. In other words, the U.S. government is now forced to borrow at higher rates. We're talking about billions of dollars at increased interest rates. So weand many expertsare left wondering: was it worth it? Perhaps there are brilliant economists in the Trump administration capable of modeling not only cash flows but also the reactions of half the world's countries to this kind of policy. But for now, the results are deeply disappointing. Some experts even believe the bond market may end up restraining Trump. In short, the more the bond market declines, the more the U.S. will pay in interest. This trend has started to worry Trump, which is likely why we're beginning to hear talk of "tariff amnesties."

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.


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