SheldonThinks Forum

Technical analysis and trading recommendation for EUR/USD for April 21, 2015[

In March 2015, theGerman Producer Price Index for industrial products fell by 1.7% compared with the corresponding month of the preceding year. In February 2015, the annual rate of changes all over was �2.1%. The euro edged lower against USD at yesterday's session. The pair rejected at 20Dsma and closed below that. The nearest strong support is found at 1.0700 rounded and 1.0680 34hrsma.Concerns over Greek issue added the new factor into the bearish view. The euro is likely to remain under pressure on the back of growing concerns about Greece as no agreements between Greece and its creditors had been reached. The Greek exit from the eurozone is the most likely scenario. The euro group of finance ministers meets this Friday on April 24. Bulls' last hope exists between 1.0690-1.0680. Sustaining below these levels leads to a fresh new low. Eventually, the euro looks weak moving towards 0.9000 against USD. Intraday: The pair erased a higher low and higher high strategy in the hourly chart. The hourly resistance is seen at 1.0770. The intraday strategy favors bears with sl 1.0770 and targets at 1.0700, 1.0680 1.0650, and 1.0625. The strong sell will emerge below 1.0680 towards 1.0650 and 1.0625 immediately. Today, traders eye on ZEW German economic sentiment and ZEW economic sentiment. At February and March, the German ZEW readings are in negative mode. We expect the same bias in April as well. But the ZEW economic sentiment has been ticking up for five consecutive months. From November 2014, onwards the readings turned to a positive note. In April, we expect positive readings. In this case, we recommend buying above 1.0780 with targets at 1.0800, 1.0820, and 1.0845.

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Technical analysis and trading recommendation for EUR/USD for April 24, 2015

The euro paused its 3-day losing streak gave a strong pullback towards the resistance zone. After the dismissal PMI data, the euro slipped towards 1.0666 made a double bottom at 1.0660 flew to the previous swing high 1.0850. The pair rejected at the resistance level, managed to close at 1.0824. The price has been consolidating 190 pips between 1.0660 and 1.0850. A side breakout is likely to provide room for trade. The double top and double bottom was place between the tight ranges. The soft US data helped the pair to move higher. Developments in Greece helped the euro to strengthen. Greek Prime Minister says "Group of negotiations with Brussels has made "significant progress" will soon reach an agreement for optimism". French and German PMI data was disappointed in April compared to data released in March. At today's Asian session, the euro is trading at 1.0808 against USD compared to the previous day close 1.0824. Ahead of today's major event, the Eurogroup's meeting, the euro is trading lower against USD. Intraday support is found at 1.0800. The support level at 1.0750 is the key driver for today's session. We recommend intraday selling below 1.0790 with targets at 1.0750, 1.0720, 1.0700, and 1.0670. The 61.8 fib expansion level of 1.0865 acts as intraday strong resistance. We recommend buying above 1.0870 with targets at 1.0890, 1.0950, and 1.0990. Whereas, 1.0910 50Ddsma acts as a major hurdle for bulls to cross for the next higher targets. Trade: Buying above 1.0870 Selling below 1.0790

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Technical analysis and trading recommendation for GBP/USD for April 28, 2015

The UK economic weekly calendar started a bit slow. On Monday, the report on monthly CBI industrial trends survey was released. According to the report, the UK manufacturing advanced in three months. But the export orders remains contracted. Today, traders eye the GDP growth rate q/q. The forecast for the Q4 is 0.5%. In the Q3, it dropped to 0.5%. The UK is approaching the next big event. On May 07, 2015, general election should pressure the cable. From an April low of 1.4566 the cable managed to gain approximately 700 pips. The cable managed to close above 100Dema and 100sma. The cable managed to close above 20Wsma after 10months. Ahead of the big event, the FOMC meeting and general election, we expect wild moves. The strong resistance is seen at 1.5440 and 1.5560 200Dsma. The cable has found the weekly support at 1.5200. As we analyzed earlier, big moves are likely to be observed above 1.5000. We recommended to target 1.5185 and 1.5210 on Friday. Both targets were completed. The cable gave a bullish inverse head and shoulder break targeting 1.5340. Intraday view: Intraday support is found at 1.5200 and 1.5190. Resistance is seen at 1.5240 and 1.5270. We recommend buying above 1.5270 with targets at 1.5300 and 1.5340. On the downside, we recommend selling below 1.5190 with targets at 1.5160, 1.5110, and 1.5080. In the four-hour chart, 34hrsma is found at 1.5050 and 50Dsma is found at 1.5020. These are the key support levels to be hold by bulls to extend the rally.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for May 05, 2015

In Asia, Japan will not release any economic data. The US will publish some macroeconomic reports such as IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Final Services PMI, and Trade Balance. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low volatility during the Asian session, but with low to medium volatility during the US session.


TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS: Resistance. 3: 120.78. Resistance. 2: 120.55. Resistance. 1: 120.31. Support. 1: 120.02. Support. 2: 119.79. Support. 3: 119.54.


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Technical analysis and trading recommendation for EUR/USD for May 11, 2015

The new week starts with a big event, the Eurogroup's meeting. The Finance Minister of Germany expected difficulties in reaching an agreement on Greece within today's Eurogroup's meeting. But the Greek government expects progress in negotiation with Greece lenders. After today's big event, major economic data fall on Wednesday. French, Italian, and German prelim GDP q/q, French prelim non-farm pay roll q/q, French CPI m/m, German final CPI m/m, Flash GDP q/q, Industrial production m/m, and ECB monetary policy meeting accounts due. Wednesday is another big data for this pair. We expect the German GDP to be in the expansion side and Italy and France are likely to be stagnant. Technical view:The pair was unchanged over the previous week. The pair has been developing the technical bullish signs for 4 consecutive weeks. The divergence between the ECB and Fed favors the long-term bearish view for this pair. The pair managed to close above 20Wsma after 52 weeks. Last week, the pair rejected at weekly parallel resistance of 1.3997 and made a high at 1.3992. The pair fell and closed below 100Dema& 100Dsma.On Friday's session, the pair rejected exactly at 100Dsma. Until the pair closes below 1.1300 100Dsma, bulls will be losing the grip. The parallel support is found at 1.1175; below this 1.1145 is another minor support. The strong bullish support base is found at 1.1050. Until the pair closes above 1.1030, bullish view remains in play. The near term will be capped, in case the price closes below 1.1050. The lower low formation will be launched in case the event takes place. The daily chart indicates the weekly trading pattern framed between 1.1300 and 1.1050. Further bullish will re-ignite in case the price closes above 1.1300. The real panic will be triggered below 1.1030 towards 1.0890. In case the price closes above 1.1300, it can skyrocket towards 1.1397 and 1.1475, whereas 1.1392 is median resistance. Negative divergence has been developing in the daily chart. Intraday view: In the hourly and four-hour chart, the price was closed and trading below the hourly moving averages 34hrsma. In the H1 chart, 34hrsma is found at 1.1225, until the price remains below 34hrsma, bearish view is likely to move towards 1.1150, 1.1110, and 1.1100. We expect 1.1050 and 1.1030 as well in a day or two. Bulls are strengthening looms above 1.1230 with minor upside possibility at 1.1250, 1.1275, and 1.1300. The real strength is seen only above 1.1300 towards 1.350, a previous high of 1.1392 and 1.1475. Trade: Selling below 1.1175 buying above 1.1230

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Daily analysis of major pairs for May 14, 2015

EUR/USD: The strength in EUR is very important as that it keeps the EUR/USD pair (as well as certain EUR pairs) strong. It also keeps the USD/CHF under selling pressure. The price has already moved upwards by 230 pips this week and the resistance line at 1.1400 is likely to be tested easily.


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GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations

Overview: On March 2, a bearish breakdown of the lower limit of the previous daily channel occurred enhancing the bearish side of the market. Persistence below the zone of 1.4950-1.5000 indicated a further bearish decline towards 1.4700. Shortly after, the bearish trend was resumed towards the level of 1.4550 where a lower daily bottom was established. Evident bullish recovery emerged at 1.4560 pushing the GBP/USD pair above the level of 1.4700. Since then, successive higher highs have been established. As anticipated, the daily closure above 1.5060 (50% Fibonacci level) exposed the next resistance levels at 1.5400 and 1.5450 where extensive bearish pressure was previously applied. This enhanced the bearish side of the market towards the levels of 1.5300, 1.5250, and 1.5100 where the most recent bullish swing was initiated on May 5. Note that Intraday Support 1 (price level of 1.5400) is the most prominent support level to be watched for buy entries when the further bearish pullback occurs. On the other hand, the current price zone of 1.5750-1.5800 is a critical resistance zone to be watched for signs of bearish reversal and a possible sell entry if enough bearish pressure is applied.


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EUR/USD Wave Analysis. Weekly Survey

Major economic data is due for release today. German Zew economic sentiment, Zew economic sentiment and final CPI y/y are due today. The German Zew economic sentiment has been disappointing thought 3 months. Zew economic sentiment has been improving for 6 consecutive months. Greek issue remains the main focus of attention in the near term. At yesterday's session, the USD changed the direction and was trading higher against most major pears. Ahead of the FOMC meeting, the greenback managed to get away from lows. Technical view:The pair started the new week with losses after five consecutive profitable weeks. We have already said the pair is likely to make the near-term top between 1.1480 and 1.1535. The pair rejected at 1.1467 and fell by 160 pips. At yesterday's session, the pair managed to hold the 100Dema 1.1300. We recommended selling below 1.1390 with a target at 1.1300. The pair made a low exactly at our targets. At today's Asian session, the pair was trading above the support level. Weekly support is found at 1.1130 20Wsma. In case the price closes below 1.1300, bears will aim at 20Wsma and the level of 1.1050 later. The 100Dsma is found at 1.1178. We expect fresh selling below 1.1300 towards 1.1200 and 1.1178 in the least case 1.1130 likely. Today we expect negative data on the euro. Intraday support is found at 1.1300, 1.1210, and 1.1190. Resistance is seen at 1.1326, 1.1360, and 1.1390. Use every rise to sell with sl 1.1390 and safe sell will trigger below 1.1300 with targets at 1.1210 and 1.1190.

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Technical analysis of EUR/AUD for May 26, 2015

All time intervals favor bears. Bulls' last hope is at 1.3680. The 50Msma is found at 1.3688, 200Wsma is seen at 1.3684. April's low is made at 1.3685. The euro is depressed by the ECB's QE and Greek saga. In the monthly and weekly charts, lower high formation is taking place. We can observe multi lows between 1.3735 and 1.3685 in the daily chart. Lower lows formation has been extending in the daily chart as well. The pair closes below near and medium-term moving averages. Early at today's Asian session, the cross has rejected at 50Dsma. The nearest support is found at 1.4000. Ideal selling is available below 1.4000 with targets at 1.3980, 1.3950, and 1.3920 initially. Risky traders can use sl 1.4045 and sell at the current level of 1.4029. Safe selling is available below 1.3980. Until the cross closes below 1.4205, bears will aim at 1.3920, 1.3810, and 1.3750.

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for May 28, 201

Technical outlook and chart setups: The GBP/CHF pair is trading lower around the levels of 1.4550/60 for now as expected. The pair might still want to test the level of 1.4650, the upper boundary of recent trading range, before reversing lower. It is recommended to remain short and also look to add further positions on higher levels. Immediate support is seen at rhe level of 1.4550 followed by 1.4400/1.4350, 1.4150, and lower. Resistance is seen at 1.4650 (range) followed by 1.4700, 1.4850/1.4900, and higher respectively. Trading recommendations: Remain short for now, stop at 1.4760, a target is open.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for June 02, 2015

The pound hit a fresh four-week low against USD after the US manufacturing data release. The US dollar dominated against major pairs at yesterday's session. The seasonally adjusted Markit/CIPS PMI ticked higher to 52.0 in May, up from a revised reading of 51.8 in April (previously reported as 51.9). The UK manufacturing sector showed further modest expansions of both output and new orders in May. Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in May for the 29th consecutive month. The overall economy grew for the 72nd consecutive month. Upcoming event: Today, traders eye construction PMI. The UK construction sector has been struggling for a while, led by housing market. Technical analysis: The cable held the 20Wsma and was trading above. The weekly support was found at 1.5150 and 1.5089. At yesterday's session, the cable touched the 100Dsma and 50Dsma junction placed at 1.5165. We expect a technical bounce with a target at 1.5300 in a day or two, later 1.5525 in the extreme case. We advised to buy between 1.5150 and 1.5100 with sl 1.5089. The same theme we still recommend this week as well. In the H1 chart, lower lows and lower highs are expanding. The price has been consolidating at 1.5200 for 8-hours. As we explained earlier, technical bounce likely. For today's session risky buying is available with sl 1.5160 and targets at 1.5240, 1.5260, and 1.5300 CMP 1.5200. Safe buying will trigger above 1.5220. Intraday support is found at 1.5160 and 1.5130. Positional buying is advised with small quantity. Bulls are likely to regain strength above 1.5300 with targets at 1.5340, 1.5380, and 1.5420. In case dip takes place buyers available between 1.5130 and 1.5100.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for June 4, 2015[/B]

EUR/USD: TThe EUR/USD pair has gone bullish as bulls continue to push the price further north. The resistance line at 1.1300 is the next target for bulls. If it gets breached to the upside, another resistance line at 1.1350 would be the next target. Certain fundamental figures are expected today and they would have an impact on the markets.

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GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations

On March 2, a bearish breakdown of the lower limit of the previous daily channel occurred enhancing the bearish side of the market. Persistence below the zone between 1.4950 and1.5000 indicated a further bearish decline towards 1.4700. Shortly after, the bearish trend was resumed towards the level of 1.4550, where a lower daily bottom was established. Evident bullish recovery emerged at 1.4560 pushing the GBP/USD pair above the level of 1.4700, then successive higher highs were hit. As anticipated, the daily closure above 1.5060 exposed the next resistance levels at 1.5400 and 1.5450 where extensive bearish pressure was previously applied. This enhanced the bearish side of the market towards the levels of 1.5300, 1.5250, and 1.5100 where the most recent bullish swing was initiated on May 5. On the other hand, the price zone of 1.5750-1.5800 (critical resistance zone) offered valid sell entry almost three weeks ago. The final bearish target at 1.5450 was already reached. Moreover, a lower high at 1.5660 applied significant bearish pressure. That is why the support zone between 1.5500 and1.5450 failed to stop this bearish momentum leading to its breakdown. It should be acting as intraday resistance when further retesting takes place. The low-risk sell entry can be retested. The price levels of 1.5150 and 1.5100 are exposed to be reached now. However, Tuesday's daily candlestick came as a bullish engulfing one. This has paused the bearish momentum for a few days until now. Conservative traders can wait for a bearish pullback towards 1.5080-1.5100 for low-risk buy entries. SL should be set as daily closure below 1.5080.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for June 09, 2015

A daily chart is still showing a lower low pattern formation, as the pair remains below the resistance level of 1.5346. Now, we are expecting a lower continuation, because that resistance is very strong and the bearish bias is likely to start dominating the trend in the GBP/USD pair again. The MACD indicator is entering oversold territory. At the H1 chart, the support zone of 1.5259 remains very solid, because the pair was rejected at that level. Now it's trying to break the resistance level of 1.5358. The next higher target is seen at 1.5428 level, which is above the 200 SMA. However, that moving average could act as dynamic resistance.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for June 11, 2015

In Asia, Japan will release the BSI Manufacturing Index. The US is ixpected to publish data on the 30-y Bond Auction, Natural Gas Storage, Business Inventories m/m, Import Prices m/m, Unemployment Claims, Retail Sales m/m, and Core Retail Sales m/m. So, there is a strong probability that USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during the day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 123.66. Resistance. 2: 123.42. Resistance. 1: 123.18. Support. 1: 122.88. Support. 2: 122.64. Support. 3: 122.40.


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Daily analysis of USDX for June 15, 2015

USDX is currently finding strong support around the 94.66 level. Now, the index could rally towards the resistance zone of 95.74. This week will be very decisive for the current trend of USDX on this time frame because it could resume the bullish bias in the coming days with a huge rebound. MACD indicator is on the negative territory.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for June 17, 2015

On the daily chart, the price action is calling for more upside above the 200 SMA and the nearest target is located around the level of 1.5755, which is a strong resistance zone. However, don't forget the GBP/USD pair could start to do corrective moves in the short term, because we have been watching a very strong bullish trend development over the last days. There is an interesting bullish structure formed on the H1 chart, because the pair has been trading higher above the support level at 1.5610. We expect a breakout of the resistance level at 1.5671 in order to reach the next high around 1.5721. The MACD indicator is entering in the negative territory and the 200 SMA is still bullish.

Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.5755 / 1.5898
Daily chart's support levels: 1.5543 / 1.5346
H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5671 / 1.5721
H1 chart's support levels: 1.5610 / 1.5548

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.5671, take profit is at 1.5721, and stop loss is at 1.5621.


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for June 24, 2015

When the European market opens, economic data on Belgian NBB Business Climate is due.The US will release data on Crude Oil Inventories, Final GDP Price Index q/q, anf Final GDP q/q. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1227.
Strong Resistance:1.1221.
Original Resistance: 1.1210.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1199.
Target Inner Area: 1.1173.
Inner Buy Area: 1.1148.
Original Support: 1.1136.
Strong Support: 1.1126.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1120.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for June 25, 2015


USD/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range. It is undermined by the flows to the safe-haven yen amid increased risk aversion (VIX fear gauge rose 9.5% to 13.26, S&P 500 closed 0.74% lower at 2,108.58 overnight) on renewed worries over Greece's debt crisis. After a list of economic measures, Greece said it was willing to undertake in exchange for financial aid, was rejected. USD/JPY is also weighed by lower US Treasury yields (10-year slipped 3.7 bps to 2.372% Wednesday) and Japan's exports. But USD sentiment is soothed as the US Q1 GDP was revised to -0.2% from previous estimate of -0.7%. USD/JPY losses are also tempered by the demand from the Japanese importers and the Bank of Japan's ultra-loose monetary policy.

Technical comment: The daily chart is mixed as stochastics is rising from oversold levels but the MACD is bearish, bearish shooting-star candlestick pattern was completed on Wednesday.

Trading recommendations: The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 124.60 and the second target at 125. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 123.30 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 122.95. The pivot point is at 124.15.

Resistance levels: 124.60 125 125.45
Support levels: 122.30 122.95 122.55

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for July 02, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups: The GBP/CHF pair is trading around 1.4770 after testing resistance at 1.4800 levels yesterday. Please note that the pair has produced a bearish evening star candlestick pattern indicating a potential pullback lower. It seems that the first leg of a rally from the level of 1.4150 havebeen finished and a corrective drop towards 1.4400 should take place soon. It is recommended to remain short with risk at 1.4830. Immediate support is seen at 1.4500/50 followed by 1.4400 and lower. Resistance is seen at 1.4800 and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations: Remain short for now, stop is at 1.4830, a target is 1.4400.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for July 07, 2015

GBP/USD found bottom around the 200 SMA on the daily chart and now we could expect some kind of rebound over there in order to reach the resistance level of 1.5755. However, if the pair does a breakout at the support level of 1.5543, it would be expected to test a low around 1.5450. The MACD indicator is still at negative territory.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for July 09, 2015

On the daily chart, GBP/USD continues to trade lower. Now, it is looking for an opportunity to break the support level of 1.5327 in order to achieve 1.5243. The current structure is still caling for the upside in this time frame because the pair hasn't break the invalidation zone at 1.5243 yet in order to invalidate our overall bullish outook.
GBP/USD is forming a lower low pattern in the H1 chart and the current price action is calling for more falls in the short term. However, bear in mind that the pair is still weak but oversold in lower time frames. That is why we would like to see a bullish corrective move accross at least the resistance of 1.5412.

Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.5450 / 1.5543
Daily chart's support levels: 1.5327 / 1.5243
H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5363 / 1.5412
H1 chart's support levels: 1.5329 / 1.5269

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.5329, take profit is at 1.5269, and stop loss is at 1.5388.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY

USD/JPY is expected to trade with bullish bias. It is underpinned by a rebound in China's stocks on Thursday, the reduced safe-haven appeal of the yen and the yen-funded carry trades as risk sentiment improves after Greece's submission of new reform proposals that appear to be closer to the creditors' demands on VAT and pensions. It raises hopes for positive outcome at Sunday's summit of the European Union members in Brussels. USD/JPY is also supported by the higher US Treasury yields (10-year rose 11.1 bps to 2.317% Thursday) and the Bank of Japan's ultra-loose monetary policy. But USD sentiment is dented by the more-than-expected 297,000 US jobless Claims for the week ended on July 4 (versus forecast 275,000). USD/JPY gains are also tempered by the positions adjustment ahead of the weekend.

Technical comment:
The daily chart is mixed as MACD is bearish, five and 15-day moving averages are declining but stochastics is turning bullish near oversold levels.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 123.30 and the second target at 123.70. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 1121.60 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 121.20. The pivot point is at 1122.

Resistance levels: 123.30 123.70 124
Support levels: 121.60 121.20 121

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for July 14, 2015

GBP/USD made an important pullback at the resistance level of 1.5543, which could be the first step towards a lower low in the daily chart. Also, we should expect a breakout at the support level of 1.5450, with a target placed around the zone of 1.5327. The MACD indicator remains at negative territory supporting our short-term bearish outlook, but be cautious with possible trend-changes.

On the H1 chart, GBP/USD was rejected by the price zone above the 200 SMA and now it's looking to test the support level of 1.5458. Now, the near-term target is placed at the downside, around the support level of 1.5458. If the pair manage to brake that level, it would be expected to test the level of 1.5412 very soon.

Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.5543 / 1.5640
Daily chart's support levels: 1.5450 / 1.5327
H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5524 / 1.5596
H1 chart's support levels: 1.5458 / 1.5412

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.5458, take profit is at 1.5412, and stop loss is at 1.5501.

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