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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

Wave Analysis by InstaForex

InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

Forecast for EUR/USD on June 30, 2023

EUR/USD: Yesterday, thanks to the report on the final estimate of US GDP for the first quarter, which turned out to be better than expected, the US dollar strengthened by 0.35%. The euro lost 47 pips. On the daily chart, the price settled below the range of 1.0910/30. Now the price can reach the target range of 1.0789-1.0804.

The MACD line is approaching this range, increasing its importance. Consolidating below this range will be a key indicator of the euro's medium-term uptrend. Around the same time, the Marlin oscillator will move into negative territory.

On the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator signal line stayed within the downtrend area yesterday. The price briefly moved above the range and the balance line. We expect further developments within the support range of 1.0789-1.0804.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on July 3, 2023

GBP/USD
On Friday, the GBP/USD pair rose above the target level of 1.2678. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator turned upwards from the zero line. Now, if the pair closes the day above this level, it will continue to rise towards the next resistance level at 1.2785. Closing the day below 1.2678 will extend the period of uncertainty since the US will be celebrating a holiday tomorrow.

According to the main scenario, the price is trading towards the target support level at 1.2520, where the MACD line is currently located. This would automatically lead to a break below the embedded green price channel line (1.2572), which is a sign of medium-term decline. The pair will likely go through light trading today and tomorrow, due to the US holiday, and major events will unfold on Wednesday.

On the four-hour chart, the price is staying above 1.2678, and the first resistance it encounters is the balance indicator line. Marlin is rising in the positive territory. There is a possibility of further growth towards the MACD line (1.2760) and then 1.2785. Currently, time is working in favor of the bears. If the price fails to firmly establish above 1.2678 or reverses downwards, it may lead to a two-day period of uncertainty (range).

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

Forecast for EUR/USD on July 4, 2023

EUR/USD
Yesterday, the euro showed a range of 60 points, closing the day at the opening level. The upper shadow tested the 1.0930 level, and this morning the price is headed towards this mark again, not giving up hope of reaching the upper band of the green descending price channel around 1.0990. This is possible if the euro follows the stock market and employment data turn out worse than expected. For now, the price needs to consolidate above 1.0930. Surpassing yesterday's low at 1.0871 will be a signal for a decline.

On the 4-hour chart, the price could not consolidate below the balance indicator line and returned to the 1.0910/30 range. Here, it can linger for a while and try to overcome the MACD line around 1.0952. The Marlin oscillator in the positive area is ready to join the growth at any moment.

Given that we accept the bearish scenario for the euro as the main plan, the price may not overcome the MACD line and return below the range. Like yesterday, uncertainty persists in the short-term perspective.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

Forecast for EUR/USD on July 5, 2023

EUR/USD
The euro lost more than 30 points yesterday, finding resistance at 1.0910/30 quite strong. The Marlin oscillator is not resisting this decline, it is approaching the border of the downtrend territory. Crossing this border will accelerate the pair's decline. There are two nearby targets: the MACD line (1.0820) and the target range under it at 1.0789-1.0804.

An alternative scenario will unfold with the price breaking above the resistance range of 1.0910/30, making the next target as 1.0984. On the four-hour chart, the price is falling below the balance and MACD indicator lines. The Marlin oscillator is also in decline territory. We are watching the development of the current downtrend.

Today, the eurozone services PMI for May will be published - a decline from 55.1 to 52.4 is forecasted. In the US, the volume of industrial orders for May will be released, with growth of 0.8% expected.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

Forecast for USD/JPY on July 6, 2023

USD/JPY
For the sixth session, the yen has done nothing but move to the right. Such consolidation, however, increases the chances of an upward breakout, first to the target of 145.68, then to 147.40. The price's divergence with the Marlin oscillator is gradually losing strength due to inactivity.

Now, even if the price falls to one of the support levels (143.80, 143.20), there will be a quick reversal. If the Marlin oscillator enters negative territory, which will not happen today, the price may fuel the corrective decline to the embedded line of the price channel around the 142.70 mark.

On the four-hour chart, the price fell under the balance and MACD indicator lines during the sideways movement. The price delay under these lines increases the chances of a decline. The Marlin oscillator is consolidating below the zero line also a sign of a possible decline in the near future. Under the influence of external circumstances, the price may consolidate above 144.73 and this would point to upward movement.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

The Fed's minutes turned out to be somewhat unexpected

Wednesday was a relatively quiet and calm day for the US currency. In the evening, the FOMC minutes were published, and this document, which usually only contains general information about the meeting, this time might have surprised the markets a bit. A month before the Federal Reserve's June meeting, the market was firmly convinced that the central bank would take a break for 1-2 meetings. After Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke in the U.S. Congress and openly stated the possibility of two rate hikes in 2023, the chances of a rate hike in June increased. But it didn't increase for long or by much. A week later it dropped back down to 20% and remained there until the very meeting.

Therefore, there was no doubt that the rate decision was made long before the actual meeting, but, as it turned out last night, some FOMC members supported a new increase but simply found themselves in the minority. In my opinion, this is quite unexpected, as Powell in recent weeks instilled confidence in the existence of a unanimous opinion in the monetary committee. However, in any case, the document had a more hawkish stance, which could support the US currency. Since the demand for the greenback did not increase last night, and it sharply fell on Thursday morning, I conclude that the market did not find anything interesting for itself in the minutes, as often happens.

Also take note of the fact that the majority of FOMC members support two more rate hikes this year, which fully coincides with the market's expectations. However, the minutes also state that uncertainty regarding the future of the US economy and inflation is too high, so additional data (future reports) would not be superfluous in determining the rate at subsequent meetings. If inflation continues to decline at a high pace, the rate may only rise once.

The market is left with only two reports this week Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment. A report on wages will be released on Friday, but I think that the market will focus on the first two reports. Thursday's release showed that the labor market is still in excellent condition, but the data from the ADP and Nonfarm Payrolls reports often differ from each other, even though they reflect roughly the same thing. Personally, I believe Friday's release will not disappoint, but various scenarios are possible.

Based on the analysis conducted, I conclude that the downtrend is currently being built. The instrument has enough room to fall. I believe that targets around 1.0500-1.0600 are quite realistic. I advise selling the instrument on "down" signals from the MACD indicator. The wave b is apparently over. According to the alternative layout, the ascending wave will be longer and more complicated, this will be the main scenario in case of a successful attempt to break through the current peak of the wave b.

The wave pattern of the GBP/USD instrument has changed and now it suggests the formation of an upward set of waves. Earlier, I advised buying the instrument in case of a failed attempt to break through the 1.2615 mark, which is equivalent to 127.2% Fibonacci. Wave 3 or c may take a more extended form, or wave e in a wedge will be constructed, and the instrument will return to the 1.2842 mark. Selling looks more promising and I advised it two weeks ago with a Stop Loss above 1.2842, but the signal from 1.2615 temporarily canceled that scenario. We need new signals for short positions.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

The dollar is covering its tracks

First impressions can be deceiving. US non-agricultural employment rose by 209,000 in June fell short of the Bloomberg expert consensus forecast and was the weakest since December 2020. Moreover, the data for April and May were revised down by 110,000. Initially, the market perceived the report as weak, which led to a drop in Treasury bond yields and a rise in EUR/USD above 1.092. However, the devil is always in the details.

In the lead-up to the report, investors were counting on strong numbers as private sector employment from ADP rose by nearly half a million people. However, the actual non-farm payrolls turned out to be worse than that report by the largest amount since the beginning of 2022. This fact can be seen as a sign of a cooling labor market. Nevertheless, unemployment in June dropped from 3.7% to 3.6%. As long as it does not increase, we can forget about a recession in the US economy. In addition, the average wage increased faster than expected, so it's still too early for the Federal Reserve to relax.

U.S. private sector employment

The employment report for the US private sector turned out to be mixed. It reduced the probability of a rate hike to 5.75% in 2023 from 41% to 36%, which worsened the position of the US dollar against the main world currencies. However, Deutsche Bank noted that only a figure of +100,000 or less for non-farm payrolls could change the worldview of FOMC officials and make them abandon their plans for two acts of monetary restriction this year.

June employment data gave food for thought to both the "hawks" and "centrists" of the Fed, as well as the "bulls" and "bears" for EUR/USD. Now, investors' attention is shifting to US inflation data and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech in Jackson Hole. Bloomberg experts expect consumer prices to slow in June from 4% to 3.1%, and core inflation from 5.3% to 5% year-on-year. CPI is moving so quickly towards the 2% target that it's as if Fed officials have not changed their minds. Could it be that this time the financial market will be right? And those who went against the Fed will make money? We'll see.

Not everyone agrees with this. ING notes that the minutes of the FOMC's June meeting set a very high bar for incoming data for the Bank to abandon its plans. The US labor market report is unlikely to have surpassed this bar. Core inflation continues to remain high, and the economy is firmly on its feet. All this allows ING to predict the EUR/USD pair's fall towards 1.08 within the next week.

Technically, on the daily chart, there is a battle for the fair value at 1.092. Closing above this level will allow you to buy on a breakout of resistance at 1.0935. This is where the upper band of the consolidation range within the "Spike and Ledge" pattern is located. On the contrary, if the 1.092 mark persists for the bears, we will sell the euro from $1.089.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for July 11, 2023

Technical Market Outlook:
The EUR/USD pair has broken above the intraday technical resistance seen at the level of 1.0974 and made a new swing high at the level of 1.1023 (at the time of writing the analysis). The intraday technical support is seen at the level of 1.0974. Please notice, the momentum has hit the extremely overbought conditions again, so there is a confirmation of the bearish pressure on the lower time frame charts. In a case of a breakout lower, the next target for bears is seen at the level of 1.0901 and 1.0876. Only a sustained breakout below the moving average dynamic support around 1.0900 would change the outlook to more negative.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - 1.09927
WR2 - 1.09761
WR1 - 1.09665
Weekly Pivot - 1.09595
WS1 - 1.09499
WS2 - 1.09429
WS3 - 1.09263

Trading Outlook:
Since the beginning of October 2022 the EUR/USD is in the corrective cycle to the upside, but the main, long-term trend remains bearish. This corrective cycle might had been terminated at the level of 1.2080 which is 61% Fibonacci retracement level. The EUR had made a new multi-decade low at the level of 0.9538, so as long as the USD is being bought all across the board, the down trend will continue towards the new lows.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

Forecast for EUR/USD on July 12, 2023

EUR/USD
The euro has reached the target resistance of 1.1028. The pair has crossed the peak of June 22, and along with it, the primary conditions for forming divergence with the Marlin oscillator have been prepared. If a divergence is formed, it will mean the end of the entire corrective growth since May 31. If the price consolidates above 1.1028, it could extend this correction to 1.1085, that is, to its limit as a correction. But if the pair surpasses this level, it will mean the continuation of the entire uptrend from September 25, 2022. However, this growth also has a small chance of a build-up, its first resistance level is 1.1155.

Today, the June CPI data will be published in the United States. The total CPI is forecasted to fall from 4.0% y/y to 3.1% y/y, and the core CPI is expected to decrease from 5.3% y/y to 5.0% y/y. As the previous rise from July 6 was purely speculative, the market reaction to the data could even be against the data. This means that if the current market logic implies a softening of the Federal Reserve's policy in connection with forecasts for today's data, then the actual reaction could be the opposite (falling euro), as a cumulative view on the deterioration of the European economy and the resilience of the American one. It is also notable that the market ignored yesterday's drop in the European ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for July from -10.0 to -12.2.

On the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator is developing sideways movement in its own range. This is a sign of increasing potential for a downward movement. All we have to do is wait for the US inflation report and look at the market reaction.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

Forecast for EUR/USD on July 13, 2023

EUR/USD
Yesterday's US inflation data came out better than forecasts; the core CPI for June fell from 5.3% YoY to 4.8% YoY, the overall CPI fell by 1.0% - from 4.0% YoY to 3.0% YoY. The euro surpassed the April peak and closely approached the target level of 1.1155. Now the price has revived the uptrend from September 25, 2022. After overcoming 1.1155, the next target will be 1.1222 (the support level from December 7-15, 2022).

The pair may not surpass the 1.1155 mark today, but after a slight pullback to the nearest support level of 1.1085. The reason may be the slowdown in the growth rate of industrial production in the eurozone - the forecast for May is -1.1% YoY against 0.2% YoY in April.

On the four-hour chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator has left the consolidation and moved upwards, and immediately into the overbought territory. This is also a sign of an impending pullback before the price rises further.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

Forecast for EUR/USD on July 13, 2023

EUR/USD
Yesterday's US inflation data came out better than forecasts; the core CPI for June fell from 5.3% YoY to 4.8% YoY, the overall CPI fell by 1.0% - from 4.0% YoY to 3.0% YoY. The euro surpassed the April peak and closely approached the target level of 1.1155. Now the price has revived the uptrend from September 25, 2022. After overcoming 1.1155, the next target will be 1.1222 (the support level from December 7-15, 2022).

The pair may not surpass the 1.1155 mark today, but after a slight pullback to the nearest support level of 1.1085. The reason may be the slowdown in the growth rate of industrial production in the eurozone - the forecast for May is -1.1% YoY against 0.2% YoY in April.

On the four-hour chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator has left the consolidation and moved upwards, and immediately into the overbought territory. This is also a sign of an impending pullback before the price rises further.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/USD for July 14, 2023

EUR/USD continues to rally higher towards the next upside target at 1.1444. In the longer term, we are looking for EUR/USD to move closer to the 1.2007 target as a minimum.

Short-term support is seen near 1.1130 with solid support placed at 1.1033, which previously acted as resistance, but now, has shifted character to support after the clear break on Wednesday. In the short term, we could see the pace of the rally settle down, but the bias will remain towards the upside.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

Forecast for EUR/USD on July 17, 2023

EUR/USD
Last Friday, as well as in today's Asian session, the euro started to show signs of reversal from the resistance level at 1.1237. We can confirm this when the price falls below Friday's low at 1.1205. This would allow it to continue falling towards the first support level at 1.1155.

Further, we might witness a breakthrough below this mark and test the 1.1076/96 range. Consolidating below this target range would serve as a strong signal for a reversal. However, this would need to be confirmed as well. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is turning downwards, indicating a high probability of the price decline, at least as a correction towards 1.1155.

On the 4-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator is swiftly approaching the boundary of the bearish territory, indicating the price's intention to test 1.1155. The MACD line is heading towards the target range at 1.1076/96, strengthening it and increasing its strategic significance.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

Forecast for EUR/USD on July 18, 2023

EUR/USD:

The euro closed Monday's session at the opening level below the resistance at 1.1237. This morning, the price rose higher than yesterday's high and formally opened the target at 1.1320.

Speculative growth of the euro continues, but it will eventually come to an end, maybe today, as the US will release its retail sales report for June, with an optimistic forecast of 0.5% compared to 0.3% in May. The Marlin oscillator does not react to the price increase; it continues to fall. The upward movement may turn out to be deceptive.

On the four-hour chart, Marlin also does not respond to the recent price growth. Yesterday, the pair failed to break through the key level of 1.1205; it retains its role today as well. Overcoming this level will open the next target at 1.1155. Breaking below 1.1155 opens up the key range of 1.1076/96.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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-- Edited by InstaForex Gertrude on Tuesday 18th of July 2023 04:54:33 AM

InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

Forecast for EUR/USD on July 19, 2023

EUR/USD
Yesterday's US economic data did not push the dollar higher. Retail sales for June showed a 0.2% increase, while industrial production declined by 0.5%. The dollar was also hindered by surveys conducted among 109 economists, the majority of whom considered the July rate hike by the Federal Reserve as the last in the tightening cycle.

Today, the EU will release its inflation data, with a forecast of 5.5% YoY compared to 6.1% YoY in May. Good data may have an impact on European monetary policymakers. However, on the daily chart, the euro is consolidating below the resistance level of 1.1237, which, together with yesterday's attempt at growth, keeps the bulls' interest towards aiming for the 1.1320 level. The Marlin oscillator is steadily falling, which supports the notion of a downward movement.

On the four-hour chart, the price is currently between the signal level of 1.1205 and the resistance level of 1.1237. Breaking through the signal level will allow the price to fall towards the target support level of 1.1155. The Marlin oscillator has moved into a downtrend territory, indicating the potential for short-term downward movement. The delay in the euro's fall has led to the MACD indicator line surpassing the target range of 1.1076/96 and heading towards 1.1155. This means that the focus is shifting from the support range to a higher level, from which it may reverse to the upside. Therefore, 1.1155 serves as a reference for the corrective decline.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of EUR/USD Main Currency Pairs, Thursday, July 20 2023

If we look on its 4 hour chart, EUR/USD main currency pairs seems like Buyers still dominates where this things confirmed by EMA 12 & 26 which is still intersecting Golden Cross as well as indicator CCI which manages to break above its three levels and hold on to the level 0 which indicates that there is significant support based on these facts, in the near future Fiber has the potential to rally up to test the 1.1253 level. If this level is successfully broken up, then the 1.1276 level will be the main target to aim for and the 1.1329-1.1376 area level will be the next target to go for. However, all of these strengthening scenarios will cancel itself out if on the way the EUR/USD rally goes up towards the target levels, it is suddenly corrected downwards and breaks below the 1.1134 level because if this level is successfully broken down then all strengthening rally scenarios previously described will become invalid and cancel automatically.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

NZDUSD, H4 | Bounce off support level?

The NZD/USD pair is in a bearish trend, breaking below an ascending support line and suggesting a potential continuation of the downward movement. The first support at 0.6189, aligned with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, could act as a price floor. If the price drops further, the second support at 0.6114, aligned with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, may provide strong resistance.

On the other hand, if the bearish momentum reverses, the price could face resistance at 0.6246, followed by a higher obstacle at 0.6305. These resistance levels have the potential to hinder the price's upward progress.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

Forecast for GBP/USD on July 24, 2023

GBP/USD:
On Friday, the British pound traded in a 43-pip range, slightly decreasing by the end of the day. The Marlin oscillator has entered the downward territory, strengthening the pound's potential to test the support level at 1.2666-1.2720.

The MACD line has become significant within the mentioned range. The price will likely fall after breaking below Friday's low at 1.2815. On the four-hour chart, we can see that the price tested the nearest correction level at 1.2903 with the upper shadow on Friday. The price and oscillator convergence is gradually waning.

If today's UK business activity gauge shows that the Manufacturing PMI is slowing down as expected, while the US Manufacturing PMI is getting stronger (forecast of 46.4 versus 46.3 in May), then the pound will likely fall towards the upper band of the target range at 1.2720.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on July 25, 2023

AUD/USD: The Australian Dollar, unlike other currencies, clearly indicates a potential decline in the US Dollar after the Federal Reserve's rate hike tomorrow. The signs include a price reversal at the approaching signal line of 0.6708 and a false break of the Marlin oscillator's signal line below the zero line.

Currently, the Marlin oscillator is in positive territory. If the price breaks above the target range of 0.6783/98, there is potential for further growth towards the target level of 0.6940. On the other hand, if the price breaks below the signal level of 0.6708, it may aim to test the MACD line around 0.6643 with a perspective of declining to 0.6560.

On the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator has moved into the upward territory, and the price shows an intention to enter the target range of 0.6783/98, which would also mean breaking above the MACD line. The FX market awaits the outcome of tomorrow's Fed meeting.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

NZDUSD, H4 | React off Resistance level?

The NZD/USD chart is currently trending bearish, with the price within a bearish Ichimoku cloud and below a major descending trend line, indicating potential further decline. The 1st support at 0.6166, a multi-swing low, and the 2nd at 0.6128, an overlap support and the 78.60% Fibonacci retracement, could halt the bearish run. Resistance levels are at 0.6221 and 0.6272, acting as overlap and pullback resistances respectively, potentially sparking selling pressure.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

XAUUSD, H4 | React off Resistance level?

XAU/USD exhibits a bullish momentum, potentially continuing towards the first resistance at 1985.73. The first support at 1967.08 is significant as an overlap support. The second support at 1953.30 is an overlap support, positioned at both the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level and the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a Fibonacci confluence. Regarding resistance levels, the second resistance at 2006.41 is notable as a pullback resistance. An intermediate resistance at 1979.00 is recognized as a pullback resistance, positioned at both the 78.60% Fibonacci retracement level and the 61.80% Fibonacci projection level, indicating a Fibonacci confluence.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

XAUUSD, H4 | React off Resistance level?

The XAU/USD pair is showing a bearish trend, potentially leading to a price drop from the 1st resistance level towards the 1st support at 1938.31, significant due to its pullback support and 50% Fibonacci retracement alignment. If the price breaches this level, the 2nd support at 1928.59, an overlap support and the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level, is notable. Resistance levels are at 1954.07 (pullback) and 1968.24 (pullback), both likely hindrances for upward price movement.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on July 31, 2023

AUD/USD
With a strong movement on Friday, the pair broke below the support of the MACD line on the daily scale. Although the Marlin oscillator slipped into negative territory, it reversed slightly, indicating a potential moderate correction in the pair. Nevertheless, if the quote surpasses Friday's low today, it will again break below the MACD line, sliding towards the level of 0.6560.

A correction can be seen on the four-hour chart, with the pair trading between 0.6625 and 0.6718. The situation will remain uncertain until it exits this range.

Alternatively, the pair could break above the upper boundary of the mentioned range and continue the correction towards the target range of 0.6783/98. The attempt of the Marlin oscillator to return to the positive territory will indicate the high probability of such a development.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

Forecast for EUR/USD on August 1, 2023

EUR/USD
Euro failed to approach the target range of 1.1068/92 yesterday, in part due to the large distance to cover and the technical resistance on lower timeframes. Key economic reports also came out rather weak, with Germany's retail sales for June showing a decrease of 0.8%. Meanwhile, the Chicago Business Activity Index for July increased from 41.5 to 42.8, collectively offsetting the eurozone's GDP growth for the 2nd quarter by 0.6% y/y (0.30% q/q).

The political factor also intervened, as China decided to reduce the export of unmanned aerial vehicles to the US, citing national security reasons. Furthermore, the forecasts for key economic indicators in the US came out optimistic.

Currently, the price approaches the target level of 1.0924, along which the MACD line also converges. There may be a breakout around the speculative buying range of July 6-7, or a correction from the entire decline since July 18.

On the four-hour timeframe, the balance indicator line capped yesterday's growth, pushing the price below 1.1012. The Marlin oscillator also fell under zero, showing a downward trend.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

Forecast for GBP/USD on August 2, 2023

GBP/USD Pound's decline slowed, which led to the MACD line rising above the target level of 1.2720. The balance line also turned upwards.

If sellers remain inactive today or tomorrow, a correction may occur to one of the Fibonacci levels: 1.2893, 1.2940, 1.2988.

So, for further decline to develop, the pair needs to overcome not only yesterday's low, which coincides with the MACD line, but also the target level of 1.2720.

On the four-hour chart, the pair trades below the balance line. The Marlin oscillator slipped into negative territory, while the MACD line gave another landmark for an upward correction - 1.2900.

Not far from this lies the 38.2% retracement level - 1.2893.

Despite the bearish trend, the pair has all the opportunities to rise above 1.2720.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

NZD/USD, H4 | Will the Kiwi finally find support?

The NZD/USD pair is displaying a bearish trend, suggesting a potential fall towards the first support at 0.6065 which is an overlap support that aligns close to the -27.20% Fibonacci expansion level. If price continues to fall further, the second support level is at 0.5994 which is swing-low support. To the upside, the first resistance at 0.6132 is an overlap resistance while the second resistance at 0.6221 is a swing-high resistance.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

USDCAD, H4 | Potential falling to 1st support?

The USD/CAD pair is exhibiting a bearish trend, suggesting potential movement towards the 1st support level at 1.3270, a key point due to its status as a pullback support and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. If broken, the 2nd support at 1.3253, a multi-swing low support, could act as a floor. If the trend reverses and the price rises, the 1st resistance level at 1.3377, a swing high resistance, could pose a challenge. A breakthrough here might face the 2nd resistance at 1.3447, an overlap resistance that could hamper bullish momentum.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

Forecast for EUR/USD on August 7, 2023

EUR/USD:
Friday's US employment data for July came out positive. Nonfarm payrolls increased 187,000 in July, average hourly earnings rose 0.4%, and the unemployment rate declined from 3.6% to 3.5%, even after June's increase of 209,000 got revised lower to 185,000 while the labor force participation rate remained unchanged at 62.6%.

The price closed the day with a 58-pip gain, failing to reach both the target level of 1.1068 or the Fibonacci correction level of 38.2%. Trading volume was high, so the euro may develop upward movement. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator has turned upwards, and the border of the bullish territory is nearby.

On the four-hour chart, the upward movement ended at the MACD line, afterwards the price returned below the resistance level of 1.1012. The Marlin oscillator is in the positive territory, indicating that the euro is likely to take a breather before it grows further.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

EURUSD, H4 | Overall Neutral Momentum?

The EUR/USD chart currently shows a neutral overall momentum, lacking a clear directional trend. The price of the currency pair has the potential to fluctuate between the 1st resistance and the 1st support level. The 1st support level at 1.0959 is considered a pullback support, offering a buying opportunity during market retracements, and it gains significance from its alignment with a 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level.

Additionally, the 2nd support level at 1.0917, identified as an overlap support, may also attract buyers' interest and provide further support during price declines. Conversely, the 1st resistance at 1.1040 acts as an overlap resistance, coinciding with a 50% Fibonacci retracement level, potentially limiting upward movement and attracting selling pressure. An intermediate resistance level at 1.1003 adds to the potential resistance points in the price movement. Moreover, the observed chart pattern is a symmetrical triangle, indicating consolidation before a possible breakout or breakdown. A break above the upper trendline suggests a bullish breakout, while a break below the lower trendline indicates a bearish breakdown.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

Forecast for GBP/USD on August 9, 2023

GBP/USD Over the past two days, we observed that the British pound falsely settled above the MACD indicator line (and above the 23.6% Fibonacci level) on Monday. Then it made a false breakout to the downside on Tuesday, narrowly missing the target support level at 1.2666.

This morning, the price is returning above the 23.6% Fibonacci level. Surpassing yesterday's peak at 1.2784 opens up the target for further corrective growth towards 1.2880 (50.0%). If the price solidifies below 1.2720, it opens up the target at 1.2666. Afterwards, it can further fall towards 1.2590.

On the four-hour chart, the price is trying to overcome the resistance of the MACD line. It's aided by the Marlin oscillator, which is already in the positive territory. The price only needs to settle above 1.2760. It has a 60% chance at growth.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

USDCHF, H4 | React off Resistance level?

The USD/CHF chart currently exhibits a bearish momentum, indicating a continuing downward trend. In light of this bearish sentiment, there's a likelihood of the price extending its decline towards the 1st support level at 0.8718, which gains importance due to its alignment as an overlap support. Additionally, reinforcement to the support structure comes from a secondary support at 0.8678. Conversely, attention is directed towards the 1st resistance level at 0.8776, marked by its classification as a multi-swing high resistance, potentially obstructing upward movement. Furthermore, a 2nd resistance at 0.8824 is identified as a pullback resistance, intensifying its potential to hinder price advancement.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

USDJPY, H4 | React off Resistance level?

The current USD/JPY chart reflects a bearish momentum, indicating an ongoing downward trend. In light of this momentum, there is a possibility that the price might react bearishly upon reaching the 1st resistance level, potentially leading to a decline towards the 1st support. The significance of the 1st support at 143.81 is highlighted as it serves as an overlap support and is further reinforced by a 38.20% Fibonacci Retracement. Similarly, the 2nd support at 142.78 is identified as an overlap support and aligns with a 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement. On the contrary, the 1st resistance level at 144.86 gains importance as a multi-swing high resistance. This level gains additional strength from its alignment with a 61.80% Fibonacci Projection and a 161.80% Fibonacci Extension, adding to its potential as a resistance level.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

USDCHF, Day | React off Resistance level?

The USD/CHF chart is displaying a strong downward trend, indicating bearish momentum.

With this bearish view, there's a possibility of a negative price reaction near the first resistance level, potentially leading to a decline towards the first support level.

The significance of the initial support at 0.8558 is due to its role as a support level marked by multiple swing lows. Also, a secondary support at 0.8312 adds to the overall support structure.

Conversely, the primary resistance level at 0.8769 is notable for aligning with a resistance point observed in earlier data.

Furthermore, a secondary resistance at 0.8902 is recognized as a potential pullback point, potentially introducing resistance against upward movement.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

Forecast of USD/JPY on August 15, 2023

USD/JPY The USD/JPY pair is approaching the target level of 145.90. The Marlin oscillator is gradually turning downwards on the daily chart, indicating a correction towards the nearest support level at 144.73. If the pair surpasses this mark, the next corrective target would be the MACD line at 143.97.

If the price consolidates above 145.90, the pair might continue to rise to the nearest resistance of the global hyperchannel around the 147.90 mark. Beyond this level lies the 148.50 target. The bulls will probably aim for the 147.90-148.50 range next.

The shorter timeframe shows us that the MACD line is approaching the support line of 144.73. This fact certainly supports the uptrend, reducing the risk of a deep correction. However, the Marlin oscillator, being a leading indicator, is not growing but gradually decreasing. We expect traders to struggle at the 144.73 level.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

Forecast for EUR/USD on August 16, 2023

EUR/USD Yesterday's performance was structurally similar to August 10th a high upper shadow stopped by resistance. This time, the MACD line provided resistance.

At the end of the day, the euro settled below this line and below the target level of 1.0924. Now the target is the support level of 1.0865. Consolidating below this level opens the target range of 1.0761/88. It looks like the stock market is already going into a medium- or long-term decline we never got the expected corrective spike in quotes.

On the four-hour chart, the price also settled below the MACD line. The Marlin oscillator is descending in the downtrend territory.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

GBP/USD, H4 | Bearish Continuation Expected?

The GBP/USD chart exhibits a bearish trend within a descending channel. It suggests a potential move towards the 1st support at 1.2670, aligned with the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement. Additional support is at 1.2591, while resistances stand at 1.2779 and 1.2824, linked with Fibonacci retracement and swing levels respectively. The current chart patterns underscore the ongoing bearish momentum.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

Indicator analysis: Daily review of EUR/USD on August 18, 2023

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).
The EUR/USD currency pair may move upward from the level of 1.0871 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) to 1.0917, the 14.6% pullback level (blue dotted line). In the case of testing this level, a continued upward movement is possible to the 1.0940 resistance level (thick red line).

Fig. 1 (daily chart).
Comprehensive analysis:
Indicator analysis - up;
Fibonacci levels - up;
Candlestick analysis - up;
Trend analysis - up;
Bollinger bands - bottom;
Weekly chart - up.
General conclusion:

Today, the price may move upward from the level of 1.0871 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) to 1.0917, the 14.6% pullback level (blue dotted line). In the case of testing this level, a continued upward movement is possible to the 1.0940 resistance level (thick red line).

Alternatively, the price may move upward from the level of 1.0871 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) to 1.0917, the 14.6% pullback level (blue dotted line). In the case of testing this level, a downward movement is possible to the 61.8% pullback level (red dotted line).

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

EUR/USD analysis for August 21, 2023 - Key resistance level on the test

Technical analysis:

EUR/USD has been trading upside this morning but I found that market is testing important pivot resistance at 1.0893.

In case of the rejection of the resistance at 1.0893, I see potential downside rotation towards $1.0850.

In case fo the breakout and hold above resistance at 1.0893, I see further rally towards 1.0920 and 1.0950

Stochastic oscillator is showing bullish divergence and bull reading.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of Nasdaq 100 Index, Tuesday August 22, 2023

If we look at the 4-hour chart for the Nasdaq 100 index, even though the price is currently below the Supertrend AI indicator, but it has the potential to be corrected upwards, which can be seen from the Trendilo indicator which is trying to break above its Lower band so that 15301.86, and then #NDX still has a chance to continue its decline in the near future to the level of 14701.94 as the main target and 14401.97 as the next target to be achieved.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

Trading plan for GBP/USD on August 23. Simple tips for beginners

Analyzing Tuesday's trades: GBP/USD on 30M chart

The GBP/USD pair showed quite an interesting downward movement on Tuesday. It retreated after testing the upper band of the sideways channel, in which it has been trading in for over three weeks. The chart above clearly shows what we mean. Thus, despite quite an interesting movement during the day (which was not provoked by a macroeconomic or fundamental background), the pair stayed within the sideways channel, meaning that the flat persists. We already mentioned this no matter what movements we see, the pair is still moving sideways.

On Tuesday, there was nothing interesting about the economic calendar. One report in the US and a speech by a Federal Reserve official. Even if these events had a slim chance of affecting the market, they certainly aren't the reason for the dollar's growth. Since the upper band of the channel has been tested again, so now we can expect the pair to fall to the 1.2620 level.

GBP/USD on 5M chart
Two trading signals were formed on the 5-minute chart. During the European session, the pair hovered around the 1.2787-1.2791 area for several hours, afterwards it finally rebounded from it, forming a sell signal. Subsequently, the price successfully breached the 1.2748 level at its first attempt and there were no more signals for the rest of the day. Therefore, the short position should have been closed manually towards the evening, with a profit of no less than 40 pips, which is quite good given that volatility was 80 points.

Trading tips on Wednesday:

On the 30-minute chart, the GBP/USD pair continues to move in a sideways channel. We still expect the pound to fall, as we still believe it is overbought and unreasonably expensive. However, the market has taken a break for now, so either trade within the sideways channel or wait for the flat to end. In the coming days, we can expect the pound to fall by about 100 pips. The key levels on the 5M chart are 1.2499, 1.2538, 1.2605-1.2620, 1.2653, 1.2688, 1.2748, 1.2787-1.2791, 1.2848-1.2860, and 1.2913. Once the price moves 20 pips in the right direction after opening a trade, you can set the stop-loss at breakeven. On Wednesday, PMIs in the services and manufacturing sectors will be published in both the UK and the US. These aren't crucial reports, and they are unlikely to move the pair out of the flat.

Basic trading rules:
1) The strength of the signal depends on the time period during which the signal was formed (a rebound or a break). The shorter this period, the stronger the signal.
2) If two or more trades were opened at some level following false signals, i.e. those signals that did not lead the price to Take Profit level or the nearest target levels, then any consequent signals near this level should be ignored.
3) During the flat trend, any currency pair may form a lot of false signals or do not produce any signals at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading.
4) Trades are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one when all deals should be closed manually.
5) We can pay attention to the MACD signals in the 30M time frame only if there is good volatility and a definite trend confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.
6) If two key levels are too close to each other (about 5-15 pips), then this is a support or resistance area.

How to read charts:

Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them.

Red lines are channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show which direction is better to trade.

MACD indicator (14,22,3) is a histogram and a signal line showing when it is better to enter the market when they cross. This indicator is better to be used in combination with trend channels or trend lines.

Important speeches and reports that are always reflected in the economic calendars can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during such events, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.

Beginners should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a reliable strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

Forecast for EUR/USD on August 24, 2023

EUR/USD
Yesterday, the euro broke through the key support level at 1.0834. By the end of the day, the euro had risen by 17 points. The nature of this movement suggests that this breakthrough was false. This morning, the price continues to rise above the 1.0865 level. The Marlin oscillator continues its upward turn. Market participants are concerned that tomorrow, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will confirm the idea of a strong American economy and hint at another rate hike(possibly by 0.50%).

The concern arises from the fact that seemingly obvious things might be interpreted differently by the Fed itself, implying that there might be no further tightening. Generally, the Jackson Hole conference doesn't discuss specific issues, such as a rate hike in a month or two, so there will be opportunities for speculation in interpreting Powell's words. Considering the increased volatility of the EUR/USD pair, it might reach the target range of 1.0924/42 regardless of the tone set by the Fed chair. The question is about the euro's medium-term perspective.

On the four-hour chart, following the false downward movement, the price returned above the MACD line, and the Marlin oscillator entered the positive territory. An uptrend in the short-term, and the target range of 1.0924/42 is in sight. Consolidating above this range will open up the next target at 1.1012.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

EURUSD, H4 | Bounce off support level?

The EUR/USD pair is showing bearish tendencies, emphasized by its movement in a descending channel and its position beneath a bearish Ichimoku cloud, hinting at a possible price reversal. Given these signals, the pair may continue its descent towards the 1st support at 1.0741. This support gains significance from being an overlap support and its alignment with the 161.80% Fibonacci Extension and 100% level. The 2nd support lies at 1.0666, known as a swing low support. If there's an upward shift, the 1st resistance is at 1.0837, marked as an overlap resistance. The 2nd resistance is at 1.0923, another overlap point. In between, an intermediate resistance exists at 1.0802, serving as a pullback resistance.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

USDCHF, Day | React off resistance level?

The USD/CHF chart displays a bearish trend within a descending channel, indicating a continued price decline. There's a potential for the price to react bearishly at the 1st resistance of 0.8850, influenced by its overlap resistance classification and Fibonacci confluence with the 50% and 61.80% retracement levels, before moving towards the overlap-supported level at 0.8702. The 2nd resistance at 0.8920, also an overlap resistance, strengthens its significance by aligning with the 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

JAPAN JOBLESS RATE RISES TO 2.7% IN JULY

The unemployment rate in Japan came in at a seasonally adjusted 2.7 percent in July, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said on Tuesday.

That exceeded expectations for 2.5 percent, which would have been unchanged from the June reading.

The jobs-to-applicant ratio ticked down to 1.29, shy of forecasts for 1.30, which again would have been unchanged.

The participation rate was 63.1 percent, matching forecasts and steady from the June level.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

This week's pack of US data will decide the dollar's fate

This week, the news backdrop will be much stronger than in the previous one. The lion's share of essential reports will come from America, so I will focus on them in this article. Before delving into the data that could significantly affect the dollar's fate, I should note the labor market and unemployment reports are currently the most crucial because they, along with inflation, influence when the Federal Reserve will stop raising rates and start lowering them. Reports on GDP or business activity are nowhere near as influential as the aforementioned ones.

The first significant report will be released on Tuesday the JOLTS number of job openings. It's expected that this figure will slightly fall compared to the previous month, but it's rare for the actual value to deviate significantly from market expectations. Hence, while the report is important, the dollar's reaction will depend on the actual figure, which could be neutral.

The second key report is the ADP report on changes in employment in the non-farm sector. This is analogous to the Nonfarm Payrolls but with lesser significance to the market. Reactions to this report are quite frequent, and its values often do not meet market expectations. However, the market values payrolls more, and the final assessment of the labor market's state will be based on the payrolls. Nonetheless, a reaction to the ADP report might also follow.

The third important report is the unemployment rate on Friday. It is expected that for August, the unemployment rate will remain unchanged at 3.5%. However, its increase or decrease can greatly influence market sentiment. I believe that a slight increase will not lead to a decline in the dollar, as this indicator has been near its historical lows for a long time.

The fourth important report is Nonfarm Payrolls, which will be released at the same time as the unemployment report. Payrolls are more significant, and their value has been declining for some time. However, this should not cause confusion, as the FOMC continually tightens its monetary policy, leading to an economic slowdown. Accordingly, the relationship between expectation and reality will be significant here. The forecast is 170,000. Any value above this might cause an increase in demand for the dollar. And the payroll report will most likely overshadow the unemployment report.

Based on the conducted analysis, I came to the conclusion that the upward wave pattern is complete. I still believe that targets in the 1.0500-1.0600 range are quite realistic, and with these targets in mind, I advise selling the instrument. The a-b-c structure appears complete and convincing. Therefore, I advise selling the instrument with targets set around the 1.0788 and 1.0637 marks. I believe that the construction of a downtrend segment will continue, but a corrective wave might start soon.

The wave pattern of the GBP/USD pair suggests a decline within the downtrend segment. There is a risk of ending the current downward wave if it is wave "d" and not "1". In that case, wave 5 could start from current levels. However, in my opinion, we are currently witnessing the construction of the first wave as part of a new downward segment of the trend. A successful attempt to break through the 1.2618 mark, corresponding to 127.2% Fibonacci, indicates the market's readiness for new short positions. I advise selling with targets set around the 1.2443 mark.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

Forecast for EUR/USD on August 30, 2023

EUR/USD
On Tuesday, the euro tried to approach the support level of 1.0774, but the bulls held on to their strong positions, and as a result, the euro closed the day above the resistance level of 1.0865. The single currency started the day with a bearish correction, but eventually, it will try to test the resistance at 1.0931, above which the MACD line lies. The Marlin oscillator is also approaching the boundary of the uptrend territory. If the price surpasses 1.0931 concurrently with Marlin moving into the growth territory, the euro might receive another support for growth. Potential bullish targets are: 1.1012, 1.1062, 1.1096. This growth has a corrective nature.

In the US, the JOLTS Jobs Openings slowed to 8.82 million in July, well off the estimate of 9.46 million, and June data was revised downwards from 9.582 million to 9.165 million. In Japan, July unemployment increased from 2.5% to 2.7% (the forecast was for it to remain unchanged). Our assumption about the labor market in the US and worldwide losing steam seems justified. We anticipate weak employment data on Friday and the euro to rise further.

On the four-hour chart, the price has settled above the balance and MACD indicator lines, above the 1.0865 level. The Marlin oscillator has sharply jumped. In such a scenario, the price may consolidate and rise further.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

USDCHF, H4 | Bounce off support?

The USD/CHF chart exhibits bullish momentum. Potential rebound from 1st support to 1st resistance. 1st support at 0.8772 and 2nd support at 0.8710 (50% Fibonacci Retracement) are crucial. Conversely, 1st resistance at 0.8825 (61.80% Fibonacci Retracement) resists, and 2nd resistance at 0.8866 signifies multi-swing high resistance. These levels indicate potential price reactions.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

Forecast for GBP/USD on September 1, 2023

GBP/USD
As a result of yesterday, the pound fell by 46 points, returning below the 1.2684 level. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator on the daily chart isn't in a hurry to move downwards; on the contrary, it indicates an intent to rise above the zero line.

If the pound realizes this intention, then the pair could rise in the target range of 1.2799-1.2814. Traders across markets are eagerly awaiting today's US employment data for August. If they turn out to be strong, the pound might head towards 1.2547.

On the four-hour chart, the price consolidated below the MACD indicator line, with the Marlin oscillator in a waiting position in the uptrend territory. While waiting for the US data, the price might rise above 1.2684, which would significantly improve the bulls' positions.

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InstaForex Gertrude · Guru

Forecast for EUR/USD on September 4, 2023

EUR/USD
The short-term battle of speculators with the release of US employment data ended in favor of the dollar bulls. The dollar index rose by 0.58%, US government bond yields increased (from 4.25% to 4.30% for 5-year bonds), and stock markets closed mixed. The euro lost 66 pips, reaching the target support at 1.0774. Is this a signal or condition for a medium-term decline? At the very least, we need to wait for the price to settle below 1.0774. Next, we need to confirm a confident reversal of the S&P 500. In other words, the initial conditions can only emerge tomorrow. If this doesn't happen, the euro may rise again, attempting to surpass 1.0931 (MACD line).

We currently have a downtrend on the daily chart, so the nearest target is the level of 1.0692. Overcoming this target could result in the pair aiming for the 1.0483-1.0552 range, which includes the descending price channel line and the Fibonacci retracement level.

There is also potential for a bullish scenario, indicated by the emerging convergence between price and the Marlin oscillator.

If the pound realizes this intention, then the pair could rise in the target range of 1.2799-1.2814. Traders across markets are eagerly awaiting today's US employment data for August. If they turn out to be strong, the pound might head towards 1.2547.

On the four-hour chart, the price has paused at the target support of 1.0774. Consolidating below this level will allow the price to reach the target at 1.0692, but the euro can only reach this level if the stock market remains weak.

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