SheldonThinks Forum

GBPUSD H4 | Bullish Divergence?

The GBP/USD chart shows bullish momentum, with the possibility of a bullish bounce from the first support at 1.2067, backed by the 127.20% Fibonacci Extension, indicating a reversal point. The second support at 1.2011, aligning with the 161.80% Fibonacci Extension, adds to its importance as a potential support level.

On the resistance side, the first resistance at 1.2124 is noted as an overlap resistance, potentially hindering bullish movements. The second resistance at 1.2273 is labeled as a swing high resistance

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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USDCAD H4 I Potential bullish reversal?

USD/CAD chart shows bearish momentum, potential drop to 1st support (1.3693, overlap support, 23.60% Fibonacci retracement) or 2nd support (1.3634, overlap support, 38.20% Fibonacci retracement). 1st resistance (1.3806) and 2nd resistance (1.3854) act as pullback resistances.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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Forecast for GBP/USD on October 10, 2023

GBP/USD
Yesterday, the British pound successfully closed the gap from the start of the weekly session and continued to rise. Now the price is trying to break above Friday's high, with the nearest target at 1.2307.

Since the signal line of the Marlin oscillator only entered the positive territory recently, the momentum should be enough to reach the nearest line of the price channel around the target level of 1.2444. By breaching the resistance level, the price could reach the 1.2547 target.

On the 4-hour chart, the price is in an uptrend according to all indicators. The pound is rising above the balance and MACD lines, and these indicator lines have turned upwards. The Marlin oscillator is rising within the uptrend territory and is far from overbought. Keep an eye on the price's behavior at the target resistance level of 1.2307.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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GBPUSD H4 I Bullish Momentum?

GBP/USD bears momentum, possibly falling to 1st support at 1.2259 (overlap support) or 2nd support at 1.2176 (overlap support). On the upside, 1st resistance at 1.2337 (swing high, 127.20% Fibonacci Extension) and 2nd resistance at 1.2418 (swing high, 161.80% Fibonacci Extension) may hinder upward movement.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD: bullish counterattack failed

The report on American inflation for September brought the "bulls" on EUR/USD back down to earth. In annual terms, the CPI grew at the same pace as in August, at 3.7%. Core inflation, as expected, slowed down to 4.1%. However, the monthly data convinced investors that it's still too early to close the door to a federal funds rate increase to 5.75%. The likelihood of such an outcome in December jumped from 28% to 40%, and the dollar and Treasury bond yields once again rose in unison. Dynamics of U.S. core inflation

In October, Federal Reserve officials began discussing how the rally in debt rates had tightened financial conditions. In other words, the bond market had done part of the central bank's job. Investors interpreted this rhetoric as a signal that the monetary tightening cycle was coming to an end. CME derivatives implied a 91% probability of maintaining the federal funds rate in November and 72% in December.

Furthermore, discussions about a dovish pivot have resumed in the Forex market. BNP Paribas, in particular, noted that for the federal funds rate to remain at 5.5%, inflation would have to remain flat for a long time. If it slows down as rapidly as it has in the past, the chances of the Fed easing monetary policy in 2024 will increase dramatically.

The U.S. inflation report for September has made significant corrections to this theory. Consumer prices do not necessarily have to slow down; they could accelerate. As a result, the theme of monetary policy divergence, which underpins the downward trend in EUR/USD, has returned to the market.
Indeed, the minutes of the latest European Central Bank meeting expressed concerns about the state of the Eurozone's GDP. It is difficult to bring inflation back to the 2% target without causing significant harm to the economy. The ECB now believes that the risks of overdoing monetary policy tightening outweigh the risks of doing too little and letting the inflation genie out of the bottle again. The regulator noted that inflation expectations are anchored. This is another piece of evidence supporting the end of the monetary tightening cycle.

Indeed, the minutes of the latest European Central Bank meeting expressed concerns about the state of the Eurozone's GDP. It is difficult to bring inflation back to the 2% target without causing significant harm to the economy. The ECB now believes that the risks of overdoing monetary policy tightening outweigh the risks of doing too little and letting the inflation genie out of the bottle again. The regulator noted that inflation expectations are anchored. This is another piece of evidence supporting the end of the monetary tightening cycle.

Dynamics of European inflation expectations

Therefore, the bears for EUR/USD have played the old but effective card of divergence in monetary policy. Markets do not rule out the possibility of a federal funds rate hike and are practically certain of a deposit rate ceiling of 4% at the ECB. Along with the divergence in economic growth between the U.S. and the Eurozone, this driver could push the main currency pair towards 1.02, if not parity.

From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD daily chart is currently implementing the Holy Grail strategy. Unsuccessful attempts by the bulls to establish themselves above the red EMA and the fair value indicate their weakness. A return to the breakout bar's low near the 1.0575 level is usually used for forming short positions. As long as the pair trades below this level, the focus is on selling.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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Forecast for EUR/USD on October 18, 2023

EUR/USD
Yesterday, the euro settled above the target level of 1.0552. The Marlin oscillator is also in the positive territory. Now, the price needs to gather strength to overcome the strong resistance level at 1.0613, as at the anticipated breakout point, the level intersects with the Fibonacci Fan line.

Breaching this level opens the next target at 1.0687. This level is also strong because the MACD indicator line is approaching it. This will determine the euro's direction in the medium-term - either a breakout with subsequent target realization, as indicated on the daily chart, or a reversal towards 1.02. On the 4-hour chart, the price has settled above the MACD indicator line, but the attempt to break above the balance line was unsuccessful.

The Marlin oscillator is in the uptrend territory, so we expect the price to try and break above the balance line. Without the price consolidating above the balance line, which requires an impulsive initial rise, overcoming the 1.0613 resistance will be extremely challenging.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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Forecast for AUD/USD on October 20, 2023

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar continues to consolidate within the 0.6295-0.6388 range, and this consolidation is increasing the bearish potential every day as the Marlin oscillator's signal line tilts downward in a triangle.

Consolidating below the level of 0.6295 means that the next target will be 0.6171. To initiate an upward movement, the price should rise above the MACD line around 0.6426. The first target will be 0.6514, followed by 0.6612.

A downtrend on the 4-hour chart, and there's a low chance of a reversal. The first sign of a reversal would be the price surpassing the previous day's high of 0.6359, which would automatically lead to breaching the MACD line. We await further developments.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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XAUUSD H4 I Reacting off Resistance?

The XAU/USD chart currently shows bearish momentum, suggesting potential further decline towards the 1st support at 1947.23, which aligns with an overlap support. The 2nd support at 1931.57 adds to this bearish outlook as a pullback support.

On the resistance side, the 1st resistance at 1984.47 has historically acted as a strong barrier to upward movement, and the 2nd resistance at 2003.60 could provide additional resistance. An intermediate support level at 1963.24 might offer a temporary pause in the bearish trend

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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USDCAD H4 I Heading into resistance?

The USD/CAD chart currently displays bullish overall momentum, with the potential scenario of a bullish continuation towards the 1st resistance level.

The 1st resistance level at 1.3848 is identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns with the 127.20% Fibonacci extension level. Higher up, the 2nd resistance level at 1.3919 is marked as a resistance level that aligns with the 161.80% Fibonacci extension level.

To the downside, the 1st support level at 1.3786 is identified as a pullback support. Further below, the 2nd support level at 1.3736 is noted as an overlap support, potentially acting as a strong support zone.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/USD for October 27, 2023

After a minor correction from 1.0695, EUR/USD is ready for the next push higher towards at least 1.0805 and most likely above here too. In the long term, we are looking for EUR/USD to move towards 1.2085 as the next major upside target as wave 3 gathers strength.

Support remains seen near 1.0521 for the next push above 1.0695.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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USDJPY H4 I Falling to support level?

USD/JPY indicates bearish momentum with a potential bearish reaction near the 1st resistance at 149.50, leading to a possible decline to the 1st support at 148.92. The 1st support is reinforced by overlap support, while the 2nd support at 148.42 adds further strength to this support zone.

On the resistance side, the 1st resistance at 149.50 is significant due to overlap resistance and the 38.20% Fibonacci Retracement, potentially impeding upward movement. The 2nd resistance at 149.97 presents challenges with overlap resistance, the 78.60% Fibonacci Projection, and the 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement, signifying a strong resistance area.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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XAUUSD H4 | Neutral Momentum?

The XAU/USD chart currently shows a neutral overall momentum, indicating a lack of a strong directional trend. In this scenario, the price is expected to fluctuate between the 1st support at 1974.67 (overlap support) and the 1st resistance at 1992.18 (overlap resistance). These levels are significant, with the support potentially attracting buyers at 1974.67 and the resistance posing a hurdle for further price gains. The 2nd support at 1962.70 (overlap support) and the 2nd resistance at 2006.11 (multi-swing high resistance) further reinforce these potential support and resistance zones.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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EURUSD Day I Rising toward resistance level?

The EUR/USD chart currently demonstrates bullish momentum, suggesting the potential for an upward move towards the 1st resistance. The 1st support at 1.0674, associated with the 23.60% Fibonacci Retracement level, may attract buying interest as a significant level. On the resistance side, the 1st resistance at 1.0765, linked to the 38.20% Fibonacci Retracement level, could pose as a level of selling pressure due to its overlap resistance nature. The 2nd resistance at 1.0858, related to the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level, further reinforces its significance as a potential obstacle to upward price movement.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of AUD/JPY Cross Currency Pairs, Wednesday, November 08 2023

With a price movement which is above its EMA 200 that has an upward slope as well as the appearance of Bullish 123 pattern followed by the Bullish Ross Hook (RH) which in a few times manages to breakout above as well as the appearance of Fractal Bar pattern which detected at the candle Pinbar on the 4 hour chart of AUD/JPY Cross currency pairs, then in the near future, this cross currency pairs has the potential to appreciate above to the level 97.53. If on the way to the level there is no downward correction which breaks under the level 95.84, because if this level manages to break above, then the strengthening condition that has been described before will become invalid and cancel itself.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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EURUSD H4 I Continue to resistance?

EUR/USD exhibits bullish momentum with a focus on the 1st resistance. The 1st support at 1.0664 coincides with the 38.20% Fibonacci Retracement, a key buying level. Similarly, the 2nd support at 1.0606 aligns with the 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement, enhancing its significance.

Resistance is expected at the 1st resistance of 1.0758, a multi-swing high resistance likely to trigger selling pressure. The 2nd resistance at 1.0835, a pullback resistance, may further impede upward movement

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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Forecast for EUR/USD on November 13, 2023

On Friday, the euro rebounded for the fourth time from the MACD indicator line with the lower shadow of the daily candle. Visually, the price has risen further, this might be real, which means that the Fibonacci ray is just around 1.0764.

A break above this mark makes it possible for the pair to aim for 1.0834. If the price manages to settle below Friday's low (simultaneously below the MACD line), the euro will head towards the lower Fibonacci ray at around 1.0490.

On the 4-hour chart, the price found strong support from the MACD line. The Marlin oscillator is rising, and its signal line is approaching the border of the uptrend territory. Under these conditions, the main scenario is that the price will rise to 1.0764.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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Forecast for GBP/USD on November 15, 2023

GBP/USD:
After sharply rising on Tuesday, the British pound decided to take a break in the consolidation range of September 7-13 at 1.2447-1.2524. During this pause, the Marlin oscillator's signal line will discharge slightly and then be ready to continue the ascent.

Once the price surpasses 1.2524, the target will be 1.2617. Next is 1.2745, the peak of August 30. If the price falls below the nearest price channel line at 1.2415, it will significantly complicate the correction. The bulls must close above 1.2447.

On the 4-hour chart, the correction is also looming. The Marlin oscillator's signal line sharply turned down, but apparently, this was so that the price would not fall below the critical support after the oscillator. After a consolidation, we expect the price to continue rising.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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Forecast for USD/JPY on November 17, 2023

USD/JPY:
On the daily chart, the yen is coiling around the price channel line within a wide range but has not been able to settle above or below this line. Let's see if the price can do this today. If it consolidates below the price channel line, the price will try to challenge the support levels at 150.00 and the MACD line at 149.65. Overcoming the MACD line not only opens up the nearest target at 148.18 but also paves the way for a decline in the medium-term (140.93).

A day closing with a white candle, followed by Monday's close above the price channel line, provides the opportunity to overcome the target level of 151.95 and the price can rise to 153.25. This scenario does not look weak, as the Marlin oscillator is ready to repeat the bullish reversal from the zero line.

On the 4-hour chart, the price is forming a triangle pattern. If this is a triangle, we can expect at least one more upward movement. If this is not a potential triangle, a bearish breakout may follow. Also, take note that the price is progressing below both indicator lines, and the Marlin oscillator is in the bearish territory. Keep an eye on the price's behavior at the levels of 150.00 and 149.65.

Analysis are provided by ifxpr.com/49DqQGd

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Forecast for EUR/USD on November 20, 2023

EUR/USD:
After fluctuating for some time, the euro rose on Friday, gaining more than 60 pips. It reached the target level of 1.0905. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is turning upward towards the upper band of the ascending channel.

There is a high probability of a synchronous downward reversal of the Marlin oscillator from both the channel's boundary and the price from any target level (1.0946, 1.0977). Today, the price has been falling, so the pair can only show a stable upward movement if the price returns above 1.0905.

On the 4-hour chart, the price is rising, slightly pausing at 1.0905. But the potential divergence, when it forms, will indicate a more significant corrective decline.

Once the correction ends, we expect the price to continue rising towards the level of 1.1096, considering the intermediate resistances at 1.0935/46, 1.0977, 1.1033.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of Gold Commodity Asset, Wednesday, November 22 2023

On the 30 minutes chart of Gold commodity asset, there is the price movement which is above the Kumo, Chikou Span also above the price and Kumo and even though Tenkan Sen and Kinjun Sen above the Kumo, but intersect with the Death Cross, which means although the Gold is in the Bullish condition, but in the near future has the potential to corrected below, where this is also confirmed by the appearance of the hidden deviation between price movement with CCI indicator so that, in the near future Gold has the potential to corrected downward, but if the weakness doesn't exceed under the level 1988,80, then Gold has the potential to be strong again up to the level 2007,07.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on November 23, 2023

GBP/USD:
Yesterday, the low was 1.2448, which is approximately the trough since September 7th. In general, the support is not weak, as the price lingered on this mark for five days since September. Now the price could break above the level of 1.2524. If the price stays above this mark, the next target could be 1.2645. The brewing divergence between the price and the Marlin oscillator is losing its strength.

Now the signal line of the oscillator takes on a wedge shape. We could witness a bullish breakout from the wedge. On the 4-hour chart, the price turned up from the MACD line. The Marlin oscillator has already moved to the bearish territory, so the price may linger a bit before the resistance at 1.2524.

The UK Manufacturing PMI for November, which will be released today, is forecasted to rise from 44.8 to 45.0. Therefore, the pound has the opportunity to rise, even if it the United States is celebrating a holiday today.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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Key events on November 27: fundamental analysis for beginners

Analysis of macroeconomic reports:

For Monday, there are hardly any macroeconomic events. We can only highlight the report on new home sales in the United States. Perhaps it will trigger a market reaction of around 20 pips, no more. There will be nothing else interesting in the US, the EU, the UK, or Germany. Therefore, it will likely turn out as another "boring Monday."

Analysis of fundamental events:

Among the fundamental events on Monday, we can highlight European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde's speech. However, Lagarde has already spoken several times and will repeatedly speak again. There has been nothing interesting in her speeches lately. This is not surprising since no one expects any drastic changes from the ECB at the moment. Most members of the Governing Council have expressed support for keeping the key rate unchanged for an extended period. So, what can Lagarde or her colleagues tell us now?

General conclusion: There are no interesting events on Monday. Perhaps Lagarde will finally announce something important, but hopes for this are frankly low. Therefore, most likely, we can expect a boring day. It is worth noting that both pairs can start a downward movement at any moment since they are both overbought.

Basic rules of a trading system:
1) Signal strength is determined by the time taken for its formation (either a bounce or level breach). A shorter formation time indicates a stronger signal.
2) If two or more trades around a certain level are initiated based on false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be disregarded.
3) In a flat market, any currency pair can produce multiple false signals or none at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading.
4) Trading activities are confined between the onset of the European session and mid-way through the U.S. session, post which all open trades should be manually closed.
5) On the 30-minute timeframe, trades based on MACD signals are only advisable amidst substantial volatility and an established trend, confirmed either by a trend line or trend channel.
6) If two levels lie closely together (ranging from 5 to 15 pips apart), they should be considered as a support or resistance zone.

How to read charts:
Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them.

Red lines represent channels or trend lines, depicting the current market trend and indicating the preferable trading direction.

The MACD(14,22,3) indicator, encompassing both the histogram and signal line, acts as an auxiliary tool and can also be used as a signal source.

Significant speeches and reports (always noted in the news calendar) can profoundly influence the price dynamics. Hence, trading during their release calls for heightened caution. It may be reasonable to exit the market to prevent abrupt price reversals against the prevailing trend.

Beginning traders should always remember that not every trade will yield profit. Establishing a clear strategy coupled with sound money management is the cornerstone of sustained trading success.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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Forecast for USD/JPY on November 29, 2023

 

USD/JPY 

The USD/JPY pair has been falling for the fourth day, at an accelerated pace for three days. The pair breached the support at 147.17 (November 21st low) this morning, and it can reach the target of 145.08 (June peak). The Marlin oscillator is also falling at a decent pace, but it is still far from the oversold territory. Even if the pair's downward movement slows down, we expect it to reach the target support.

 

U.S. government bonds are rapidly losing yield. The yield on 5-year bonds has fallen from 4.51% to 4.25% since the beginning of the week. Along with this, the dollar is declining against the yen. Simultaneously, there are increasing rumors of the Bank of Japan abandoning its ultra-loose monetary policy soon.

 

On the 4-hour chart, there are signs of a brewing convergence between the price and the Marlin oscillator. The main event of the day will be released in the evening the U.S. GDP for the 3rd quarter. Depending on the risk sentiment, the USD/JPY pair will choose a corresponding strategy. Until then, the price may stall under the resistance at 147.17.

 

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

 

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-- Edited by InstaForex Gertrude on Wednesday 29th of November 2023 03:58:24 AM

Catherine Mann: The Bank of England may still need to raise rates

Inflation in the United Kingdom remains consistently high, although it has decreased to 4.6% in the last six months. Recall that Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and some of his colleagues promised to reduce inflation to 5% or below by the end of this year. At the moment, we can say that they have managed to keep their promise, but inflation in Britain remains persistently high, with wages growing at 8% annually, and core inflation currently standing at 5.7%.

Judging by data on price and wage inflation, we can see that the BoE is currently closest to a new interest rate hike. Recently, we have repeatedly heard that the British central bank prefers to keep the rate at its current level for a period long enough to return inflation to 2%. However, such measures may not be sufficient.

BoE Monetary Policy Committee member Catherine Mann said that the prospects of maintaining the current inflation could compel the central bank to tighten monetary policy more than it is doing now. Mann stated that the current BoE policy can be considered "sufficiently restrictive" only for a very short period and exerts relatively weak pressure on price growth. According to her, many companies expect inflationary pressures to persist next year. Accordingly, the BoE may tighten its policy once again.

This is the factor that can desynchronize the pound and the euro. The European Central Bank has no grounds to raise rates after the latest inflation report. Moreover, it may move to rate cuts in the near future. If we believe Mann's words, the BoE may need another rate hike, and the probability of such a scenario is quite high. This is a supporting factor for the pound but not for the euro.

In conclusion, I expect both instruments to fall. The BoE has not given any signals of readiness to move from words to action. In the last meeting, only three members of the Committee voted for a rate hike. Therefore, the euro and the pound can safely decline for now.

Based on the analysis, I conclude that a bearish wave pattern is still being formed. The pair has reached the targets around the 1.0463 mark, and the fact that the pair has yet to breach this level indicates that the market is ready to build a corrective wave. It seems that the market has completed the formation of wave 2 or b, so in the near future I expect an impulsive descending wave 3 or c with a significant decline in the instrument. I still recommend selling with targets below the low of wave 1 or a. But be cautious with short positions, as wave 2 or b may take a more extended form. A successful attempt to break the 1.0851 level could signal a decline in the instrument.

The wave pattern for the GBP/USD pair suggests a decline within the downtrend. The most that we can count on is a correction. At this time, I can recommend selling the instrument with targets below the 1.2068 mark because wave 2 or b will eventually end and at any time. The longer it takes, the stronger the fall. The narrowing triangle is a harbinger to the end of the movement.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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