SheldonThinks Forum

Catherine Mann: The Bank of England may still need to raise rates

Inflation in the United Kingdom remains consistently high, although it has decreased to 4.6% in the last six months. Recall that Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and some of his colleagues promised to reduce inflation to 5% or below by the end of this year. At the moment, we can say that they have managed to keep their promise, but inflation in Britain remains persistently high, with wages growing at 8% annually, and core inflation currently standing at 5.7%.

Judging by data on price and wage inflation, we can see that the BoE is currently closest to a new interest rate hike. Recently, we have repeatedly heard that the British central bank prefers to keep the rate at its current level for a period long enough to return inflation to 2%. However, such measures may not be sufficient.

BoE Monetary Policy Committee member Catherine Mann said that the prospects of maintaining the current inflation could compel the central bank to tighten monetary policy more than it is doing now. Mann stated that the current BoE policy can be considered "sufficiently restrictive" only for a very short period and exerts relatively weak pressure on price growth. According to her, many companies expect inflationary pressures to persist next year. Accordingly, the BoE may tighten its policy once again.

This is the factor that can desynchronize the pound and the euro. The European Central Bank has no grounds to raise rates after the latest inflation report. Moreover, it may move to rate cuts in the near future. If we believe Mann's words, the BoE may need another rate hike, and the probability of such a scenario is quite high. This is a supporting factor for the pound but not for the euro.

In conclusion, I expect both instruments to fall. The BoE has not given any signals of readiness to move from words to action. In the last meeting, only three members of the Committee voted for a rate hike. Therefore, the euro and the pound can safely decline for now.

Based on the analysis, I conclude that a bearish wave pattern is still being formed. The pair has reached the targets around the 1.0463 mark, and the fact that the pair has yet to breach this level indicates that the market is ready to build a corrective wave. It seems that the market has completed the formation of wave 2 or b, so in the near future I expect an impulsive descending wave 3 or c with a significant decline in the instrument. I still recommend selling with targets below the low of wave 1 or a. But be cautious with short positions, as wave 2 or b may take a more extended form. A successful attempt to break the 1.0851 level could signal a decline in the instrument.

The wave pattern for the GBP/USD pair suggests a decline within the downtrend. The most that we can count on is a correction. At this time, I can recommend selling the instrument with targets below the 1.2068 mark because wave 2 or b will eventually end and at any time. The longer it takes, the stronger the fall. The narrowing triangle is a harbinger to the end of the movement.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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USD/CAD I Bearish Reversal?

The USD/CAD chart is showing signs of a potential bearish reversal, with significant support and resistance levels in play.

Resistance Levels:
At 1.35788, the 1st resistance level is characterized as "Pullback resistance." This level signifies a zone where selling pressure may emerge, potentially hindering upward momentum. Additionally, the 2nd resistance level at 1.35280 is identified as "An Overlap resistance," reinforcing its role as a significant resistance zone.

Support Levels:
On the support side, the 1st support level at 1.34893 is labeled as "Swing low support." This level implies a potential area where buying interest may emerge, serving as a crucial support zone. Similarly, the 2nd support level at 1.34304 is characterized as "Swing low support," reinforcing its potential to provide support to the price.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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USD/JPY Day I Bearish continuation expected?

The USD/JPY chart is currently indicating the potential for a bearish breakout, with significant support and resistance levels at play.

Support Levels:
At 144869.00, the 1st support is characterized as "An Overlap support." This level signifies a potential area where buying interest may emerge, potentially preventing further downward movement. Additionally, the 2nd support at 141.98 is identified as "An Overlap support," further reinforcing its potential significance in providing support to the price.

Resistance Levels:
On the resistance side, the 1st resistance level at 148.28 is labeled as "An Overlap resistance." This level represents a notable barrier to further upward price movement and warrants attention from traders.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on December 12, 2023

EUR/USD
In the previous review, we tied the rise of counter-dollar currencies to the development of risk sentiment in the broader market. Yesterday, the S&P 500 stock index surpassed the nearest peak from July 27 (4612), and now it has a good target at the level of 4818, which is a record high (January 2022). Oil has risen slightly. Yields on US government bonds have not changed for the third day in anticipation of tomorrow's Federal Reserve meeting.

On the daily chart, the price has consolidated above the level of 1.0757. The Marlin oscillator is slowly turning upward. If there are no significant events that will hinder the euro's way, the price will continue to rise towards the target level of 1.0825.

A potential bullish breakout, in continuation of the decline from November 29, will take place if the price surpasses the support of the MACD line in the area of 1.0703. The first bearish target will be 1.0632. Exchange Rates 12.12.2023 analysis

On the 4-hour chart, the price is consolidating symbolically above the support of 1.0757. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator, after the previous convergence, entered the uptrend territory. Overcoming the level of 1.0825 will support the uptrend, as resistance is strengthened by the approaching MACD line.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on December 14, 2023

AUD/USD
The Australian dollar sharply strengthened after yesterday's Federal Reserve meeting up 100 pips compared to the euro's 80-pip rise. In today's Asian session, the pair continued to rise at an even greater speed, and has already surpassed the target level of 0.6693. With that said, we now expect the uptrend to move forward towards the target levels of 0.6775 and 0.6815 (the average value of the peaks in April and May).

A slight move of the Marlin oscillator's signal line into negative territory (red arrow) is now considered a false move, afterwards we witnessed movement into the overbought territory.

On the 4-hour chart, the price is trying to consolidate above the level of 0.6693. If it successfully manages to consolidate, this would automatically support the pair's rise to 0.6775.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on December 18, 2023

EUR/USD
Friday's correction turned out to be quite intense and balancing on the verge of a trend change, as the price managed to overcome the strong support at 1.0905, and the Marlin oscillator returned to negative territory. Now, if the current day closes below the price channel line, below the level of 1.0905, the price could attack the lower Fibonacci ray and support at 1.0825.

However, the euro still has a chance to rise. In order to do so, the current daily candle should stay above the level of 1.0905, which will lead the Marlin oscillator to rise in the positive territory. Surpassing the 1.0946 mark will reopen the target of 1.1033 and then 1.1076.

On the 4-hour chart, we can see that the corrective phase was just over 38.2%. The Marlin oscillator has not left the growth territory. There is a good chance that the price will turn from these levels. The uptrend remains intact, and in order to change it, the price needs to consolidate below 1.0825 and below the MACD line.

Such a deep correction only occurred with the euro. The Canadian dollar strengthened on Friday, Asia-Pacific currencies spent the day in consolidation, and this morning, the New Zealand dollar continues to rise. This means that on Friday, the euro qualitatively reacted to the weak eurozone PMI data. But today, the IFO indices for Germany for December will be released, and they are expected to increase. In particular, the value is expected to rise from 89.4 to 89.5. This supports the main scenario.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on December 20, 2023

EUR/USD
The euro did not linger in the range of 1.0905/46, broke out of it and gained 57 pips on Tuesday. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator has settled in the positive territory, and the price can continue to move to the nearest target level of 1.1033 and rise to the upper band of the price channel, coinciding with the target level of 1.1076 (the peak of April 14).

Obviously, the pre-New Year rally is in full swing, if we count the stock market since October 30th. The Dow Jones stock index sets a new record every day. The S&P 500 is slightly behind. Yesterday, oil rose by 1.80%, and copper rose by 1.36%. The crisis, along with the euro's decline, is expected in the new year.

On the 4-hour chart, the price is progressing above the indicator lines, which are rising, and the Marlin oscillator has settled and is progressing in the uptrend territory. The possible correction is supported by the level of 1.0946, but overall, we expect the pair to rise to the specified target levels.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on December 22, 2023

AUD/USD
Yesterday, the Australian dollar gained 71 pips and approached the target level of 0.6815, and the upper band of the local price channel.

The Marlin oscillator has been behaving nervously recently, but a break above 0.6830 opens the way for further growth with the initial target of 0.6897 - towards the peak of July 13 with an intermediate level of 0.6872.

On the 4-hour chart, the price has settled above the balance and MACD indicator lines, and the Marlin oscillator has stabilized in the uptrend territory. We are waiting for progress on this growth.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on December 26, 2023

EUR/USD
So far, the euro has reached the first bullish target at 1.1033. Now, the target is 1.1076 (the peak of April 14) at the intersection with the upper band of the price channel. Surpassing this level will open up the target of 1.1150 (the July 27 high). But first, the price needs to consolidate above 1.1033.

Today, the United States will release housing price data. The October estimate suggests a growth of 0.5%, and the composite S&P/CS-20 index, excluding seasonal fluctuations, is expected to rise to 5.0% YoY from the previous 3.9% YoY. Such data may hinder the euro's growth. On the other hand, in thin markets, movements can be unpredictable depending on the goals of major players, and these goals were bullish just a week ago.

On the daily chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator has turned away from the upper band of the wedge, creating a risk of a pullback to the lower band of the wedge and an upward breakout of the line. Based on this scenario, the price may spend the entire day below the resistance of 1.1033 and only resume its upward movement tomorrow.

On the four-hour chart, the price is starting to consolidate before the reached level, and the Marlin oscillator has settled in the positive territory. Price development is occurring above the balance and MACD indicator lines. An uptrend in place.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of Gold Commodity Asset, Thursday December 28, 2023

Although currently Gold commodity assest still look strengthening where this is confirmed by the price movement which is above its Moving Average, but with the appearance of the Rising Wedge pattern and the deviation between price movement with Awesome Oscillator indicator, then in the near future, although gold will try to reach the level area of 2093.24-2107.79 but there is a potential for gold to fall down to its weakening up to the level of 2004.27, but this weakness potential will become invalid if the strengthen of gold still continue until it breaks above the level 2143.74.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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EUR/USD. The first week of January: Fed minutes, Eurozone inflation, and Non-Farms

Major global trading platforms are closed on January 1st due to New Year celebrations. Therefore, we can expect a shortened but still quite interesting trading week.

Tuesday

"Monday starts on Tuesday." Typically, the first working day of the week doesn't bring important news or reports, which means that Tuesday will be no exception. During the European session, we will receive the final assessment of December's PMI data. According to most experts, the final assessment is expected to match the initial one. In particular, Germany's Manufacturing PMI is expected to remain at 43.1 points. On the one hand, this indicator remains below 50 points, indicating contraction. On the other hand, the index has been showing an upward trend for the fifth consecutive month (after plummeting to 38 points in July). If the data is not revised towards deterioration or improvement, the market will likely ignore this release. The same applies to the U.S. Manufacturing PMI, which will be released during the U.S. session. Here too, the final assessment should match the initial one (48.2).

Wednesday

Key labor market data for Germany will be released. According to forecasts, unemployment in December should remain at the November level, which is 5.9%. This is a relatively high figure the last time (before November 2023) unemployment was at this level was in June 2021.

However, the German labor market rarely has a significant impact on the EUR/USD pair. On the other hand, the ISM Manufacturing Index, which will be released during the U.S. session, could provoke increased volatility. This crucial indicator has shown an uptrend from July to September (inclusive), reaching 49 points. It sharply dropped to 46.7 in October, and remained at the same level in November. According to most forecasts, it will slightly increase to 47.2 in December. This fact is unlikely to impress EUR/USD traders. However, if this indicator falls into the "red" (more precisely, if it falls below 46.7), then in that case, market participants may react strongly to the data, as dovish expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's future course of actions could rise again.

The minutes of the December Federal Reserve meeting is also set for release on Wednesday. Take note that the December meeting was the most dovish one in 2023. Instead of the widely expected "moderately hawkish" stance, the central bank expressed very accommodative comments, stating its readiness to lower interest rates in 2024 (according to the updated dot plot by 75 basis points over the year). Fed Chair Jerome Powell mentioned that during this meeting, Committee members discussed the timing of the rate cuts. In this context, he noted that the general expectation is that the rate cut will become the main topic for further discussion. Given the rhetoric of the accompanying statement and Powell himself, we can assume that the Fed Minutes will exert additional pressure on the greenback.

Thursday

The key economic report on Thursday is the German inflation data. According to most experts, the Consumer Price Index accelerated to 3.7% year-on-year in December, following a decline to 3.2% in November. The harmonized CPI is also expected to show growth, rising to 3.8% year-on-year (after falling to 2.8%). If these figures come in at least in line with expectations, the bulls will have another reason to push the pair higher, as German data often (almost always) correlates with the overall European data.

Friday

The euro area is set to release its inflation data on Friday. This should be viewed in light of the previous statements made by representatives of the European Central Bank. To recall, over the last two weeks of December, several members of the ECB stated that the central bank would keep interest rates at their current levels for quite a while, at least throughout the first half of 2024. The common theme of these statements is that it's too early for the eurozone to celebrate victory over inflation. If December's figures show accelerated growth, this will provide support to the euro. According to preliminary forecasts, the CPI will rise to 3.0% in December after dropping to 2.4% in November. The index will show an upward trend for the first time after seven consecutive months of decline. The core index is expected to decrease to 3.4%. If it unexpectedly surges (after four months of decline), this will place the bulls in a favorable position.

Key labor market data will be published during the U.S. session. Preliminary forecasts do not bode well for the dollar. For instance, the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 3.9%, and the number of employed is projected to increase by just 160,000. The indicator may also disappoint dollar bulls: it is predicted that the average hourly earnings will decrease to 3.9% on an annual basis (the weakest growth rate since June 2021).

Conclusions

The EUR/USD pair still has the potential to rise. Soft Fed minutes, accelerated inflation in Germany and the eurozone, as well as weak Non-Farms, will support the pair's uptrend, assuming that all events align with the expectations of most experts. In this case, buyers can expect the pair to return to the 1.1130 level, which corresponds to the upper Bollinger Bands line on the daily chart. The primary target of the uptrend is at the 1.1250 level (the upper Bollinger Bands line on the monthly timeframe), but it's too early to talk about that price level at this point.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on January 3, 2024

GBP/USD
Amid investors' flight from risk on Tuesday, the British pound lost 111 pips and breached the support of the balance indicator line on the daily chart. This morning, the price quickly returned above the line, but the bulls' main goal for now is to close the day above the nearest resistance at 1.2645, otherwise, we may see a consolidation below this mark, and the bears could gain the upper hand, pushing the quote to 1.2524.

The Marlin oscillator has settled in a downtrend, so sellers have a good chance. If the price consolidates above 1.2645, the price could rise towards 1.2745, and a breakthrough of 1.2745 will provide an optimistic outlook towards 1.2930 - the upper band of a long-term price channel.

On the 4-hour chart, the price has settled below the balance and MACD indicator lines, as well as the level of 1.2645. The Marlin oscillator has also settled in negative territory. Considering the uptrend, we can consider the pound's decline as a short-term effect. The first signal for an upward move will be the price consolidating above the level of 1.2645, further confirmed by the price breaking above the MACD line and the 1.2705 mark. However, if the price fails to exhibit growth, it will fall, with 1.2524 as the target. We await further developments.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 5, 2024

EUR/USD:
Yesterday's US employment data, as we anticipated, exceeded expectations. According to ADP, 164,000 jobs were created in the non-farm sector in December, compared to a forecast of 115,000 and 101,000 in November. Initial jobless claims also dropped to 202,000 from 220,000 the previous week (forecast was 216,000). These reports renewed optimism about today's Non-Farm Payrolls report and other unemployment sub-indices. Even the expected 170,000 new jobs in the non-farm sector are considered a good figure.

As a result, the Dow Jones inched up by 0.03% yesterday, while the S&P 500 was less responsive, with a -0.34% decline. However, European stock markets closed the day with gains, and the euro was up by 22 pips.

On the daily chart, we can see a price reversal from the balance indicator line and the target level of 1.0905. The Marlin oscillator is rising but has not yet left the bearish territory. Expectations are generally positive, with the price expected to reach target resistances at 1.1033, 1.1076, and 1.1185.

On the 4-hour chart, the price is visually rising, and the Marlin oscillator, after breaking away from the base marked by the green area, is approaching the boundary of the uptrend territory. The MACD line is very close to the 1.1033 level, emphasizing the significance of this resistance. Therefore, overcoming it could extend the price's growth in the medium-term.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on January 9, 2024

GBP/USD
Yesterday, the British pound pierced through the resistance level at 1.2745 with its upper shadow, and today's opening price is exactly at this level, indicating further upward movement. Exchange Rates 09.01.2024 analysis

The Marlin oscillator crossed into the uptrend territory during the Asian session. A short-term rise is unfolding with the initial target at 1.2826. Beyond that, the price faces a challenging decision: to either surpass the upper band of the global descending channel around 1.2910 or break through it and reach the target level of 1.2940.

On the 4-hour chart, the price is trying to rise above the support at 1.2745. In doing so, it is moving above both indicator lines. The Marlin oscillator continues to adapt to the uptrend territory. We are looking for the price to reach the initial target level at 1.2826.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 11, 2024

EUR/USD
Wednesday was generally spent waiting for today's US inflation data. However, optimism and risk appetite prevailed; the S&P 500 rose by 0.57%, gold fell by 0.26%, and the euro gained 40 pips and continues to rise this morning.

From this perspective, the euro certainly has the potential to rise in the coming weeks the direct correlation with the stock market remains intact, but there may be reversals within this upward movement.

On the daily chart, the euro is rising above the balance indicator line, but the Marlin oscillator has not yet left the downtrend territory. It may leave this area after the reports. In this case, the price may aim for the nearest level at 1.1033. The subsequent move above this level will open up the second target at 1.1076. Beyond that is 1.1185, the peak from March 2022.

On the 4-hour chart, the price has not yet received a full-fledged bullish signal, as it needs to move above the MACD line, above the 1.1018 level. In general, the nearest resistance for the price can be seen in the range of 1.1018-1.1033. The Marlin oscillator is confidently moving in the uptrend territory.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on January 15, 2024

GBP/USD
Pound, consolidating above the level of 1.2745, closed the day 2 points higher. However, looking at the fluctuations, this may not be the case, especially since today the pair opened 5 points lower.

The signal line of the Marlin oscillator turned downward, and if the pair overcomes the January 11 low of 1.2689, the balance line could be broken. In this case, GBP/USD will head towards the support level of 1.2610. Overcoming this will push the pair to 1.2524. The MACD line may also head towards this level. After that, pound may bounce from 1.2524 to new yearly highs.

Important economic data for the UK will be released on Wednesday (CPI for December). Until then, do not expect strong movements in the pair.

On the four-hour chart, the pair broke through the MACD line, while the Marlin oscillator fell downward, signaling a short-term decline. Further movement could be towards 1.2689, 1.2657 and 1.2610.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on January 17, 2024

AUD/USD
The pair lost 75 pips yesterday and broke the support levels of the target level of 0.6612 and the MACD line. The next target will be 0.6547. However, risk appetite may surge after the release of inflation data from the eurozone, and retail sales and industrial production reports from the US.

The dip below the supports may turn out to be false, and growth may continue above 0.6693. If upcoming data also turns out weaker than expected, AUD/USD will head towards 0.6514/47.

On the four-hour chart, no clear signs could be seen of either a continuation of the decline or a reversal. Usually, the pair would continue to fall, but market sentiment appears to be changing. Commodities and stock indices may also grow.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on January 19, 2024

GBP/USD
Yesterday, on the daily chart, the British pound opened and closed the day above the balance indicator line (red). This indicates that the balance of power has shifted towards buying, and the price has settled above this line.

The Marlin oscillator is still in the downtrend territory, but it is getting weaker, and the price still needs to overcome the resistance level at 1.2745 to decisively defeat the bears. It is likely that a break above 1.2745 and the oscillator transitioning into the positive territory will occur simultaneously. Exchange Rates 19.01.2024 analysis

On the 4-hour chart, Marlin has already entered the growth territory. It is important for the price to break above the resistance of the MACD line (1.2715), which is currently being held back by the balance line. Considering these factors, the price may be able to overcome visible obstacles and continue to rise. The target is 1.2826, which is the high from December 28th.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 23, 2024

EUR/USD
Yesterday, the main event was that traders saw a higher probability of the Federal Reserve keeping the current interest rate at the March meeting to 58.4%. The speeches of FOMC representatives finally had an effect. As a result, the dollar index increased by 0.08%, and the euro fell by 15 points.

The price rebound occurred at the intersection point of the balance indicator line on the daily timeframe with the target level of 1.0905. The local decline is supported by the MACD line around the level of 1.0853 on the daily timeframe. A consolidation below this level will allow the price to move towards 1.0825 and even 1.0730, which is the embedded price channel line and the target level.

A consolidation above 1.0905 will open the way towards the target of 1.1033. This is the main scenario. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is in a sideways neutral movement. Tomorrow, the eurozone will publish the Manufacturing PMI for January, with a forecast of 44.8 compared to December's 44.4. The US Manufacturing PMI is also expected to rise, reaching 48.0 compared to 47.9 in December. This likely indicates a recovery in risk appetite.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 25, 2024

EUR/USD:
Yesterday's data on business activity in Europe and the United States worked in favor of the US, as manufacturing activity increased from 44.4 to 46.6, while services fell from 48.8 to 48.4. At the same time, US stock markets closed the day mixed, reaching strong technical resistance.

As a result, the euro did not receive significant technical support for its growth. However, the price could also rise due to unjustifiable optimism ahead of today's European Central Bank meeting. If the stance of the ECB officials has not changed in recent days, we can expect a moderately hawkish tone in the final statement, which could support the euro.

The euro will find support if it breaks above the resistance at 1.0905, preferably surpassing yesterday's high at 1.0933. Currently, the price is above the MACD line on the daily timeframe, which maintains a positive bias.

On the 4-hour chart, the price has settled above the MACD indicator line, and the Marlin oscillator has entered the growth territory. Although visually, the price and the oscillator may "dip" below their supports, yesterday's bullish breakout makes more sense if we look at the reports. We are waiting for the ECB's decision on monetary policy.

Considering the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, the euro is unlikely to experience a significant decline if today's central bank meeting turns out to be dovish. Target levels on the charts have been adjusted due to new technical conditions.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 29, 2024

EUR/USD
At the end of the past week, during which the central banks of Japan, Canada, and the eurozone held meetings, the euro fell by only 44 pips. This indicates that investors are waiting for the outcomes of the Federal Reserve's decisions, and until then, significant market movements are not expected. Although the price settled below the MACD line on the daily chart, there is a small chance that the price will settle below the support level of 1.9825 since the bearish gap from the opening of the session has not yet been closed, and settling below the MACD line ahead of the Fed meeting may turn out to be a false signal.

Overcoming the MACD line (1.0862)will certainly eliminate the existing danger of a significant drop below 1.0825. However, this will not be a sign of a rise above 1.0905. Of course, we are waiting for the Fed's decision on monetary policy and the market's reaction to it. We expect the euro to fall below 1.0450 if the US stock market falls. Perhaps this will happen in February for political reasons.

On the 4-hour chart, an unclosed gap is clearly visible. The price adheres to the MACD line. The downtrend is restrained by a double convergence with the Marlin oscillator. We await the Fed meeting on Wednesday.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 31, 2024

EUR/USD
The euro completed a small task set before yesterday it worked out the resistance of the MACD indicator line on the daily timeframe, closing the day with a white candle. Meanwhile, the Marlin oscillator strengthened its bullish momentum, which shows that the euro is ready to rise ahead of the FOMC meeting. From a technical standpoint, this will look like the price breaking out of the descending corrective wedge. This is our main scenario. The first bullish target is 1.0905, and the second is 1.0966 the peak of November 21, 2023.

If events develop according to an alternative scenario, the price may attack the lower embedded line of the price channel with a target level of 1.0730.

On the 4-hour chart, the price pierced the price support of 1.0825 and the MACD line. The Marlin oscillator turned down from the zero line. The gap from the opening of the week was closed yesterday evening.

Earlier, we mentioned that of all the major central banks, the Federal Reserve would be the first to signal a rate cut. Assuming that the Fed will not lower the rate in March but only in May, even in this case, today is a very convenient time to send the corresponding signal. Recent statements by officials from these central banks illustrate this assumption well: Fed official James Bullard mentioned the possibility of a rate cut in March, and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said yesterday that we still need to wait for employment and wage data.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on February 2, 2024

EUR/USD
Yesterday, the euro, which was losing momentum, received support from the stock market, which gained 1.25% (S&P 500) and lifted the euro by 54 pips. On the daily chart, the price broke out of the descending wedge and is attempting to settle above the MACD line. The Marlin oscillator is also ready to rise; soon, it will move into the growth territory.

Today, the market expects the U.S. employment data to show minor weakness. In the non-farm sector for January, 187,000 new jobs are forecasted compared to 216,000 in December, and an increase in the unemployment rate from 3.7% to 3.8%. However, the stock market, along with other instruments, often developed a risk-on sentiment against labor data, for instance, on November 3rd, when non-farm payrolls for October were 150,000 against an expectation of 180,000.

On the 4-hour chart, the price has already settled into the uptrend territory it is currently moving above both indicator lines, and Marlin has been stable in the bullish territory. We expect the euro to rise towards the target levels of 1.0966, 1.1001 (the peak of January 11th), and 1.1043, while keeping a close eye on the stock market.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on February 6, 2024

EUR/USD
On Monday, the euro fell by 44 pips, reaching the target level of 1.0730 with the lower shadow of the daily candle. The price surpassed the lower border of the green price channel, and the channel is no longer relevant.

Now, after overcoming the level of 1.0730, which the price has reached, the euro may continue to fall to the next target at 1.0632. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator slightly bent upwards, which may indicate a minor correction from the support it reached before it falls further.

On the 4-hour chart, the price consolidates above the support level. Marlin is discharging before a possible new wave of decline. We are waiting for the price to consolidate below 1.0730 and move towards the designated level of 1.0632 the low of September 14, 2023, and the low of May 31.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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