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Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY: trading tips for beginners for the European session on July 5

Overview of trading and tips on USD/JPY There were no price tests of the levels I mentioned in the U.S. session, so we did not get any good entry points. The U.S. holiday was the main reason why volatility was low. Despite the circumstances, sellers were determined to trade actively in today's Asian session, which led to the test of the weekly lows. Even weak data on household spending, which sharply decreased, did not hinder the pair's correction. The figures for the index of leading economic indicators matched economists' forecasts, but traders ignored this report. It is clear that the pair's further direction will entirely depend on the U.S. labor market data, and until then, we are unlikely to see a breakout and consolidation below the daily low. For this reason, I will try to look for reversal entry points, in anticipation of a small bullish correction. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and 2.

Buy signals Scenario No. 1. Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY when the price reaches the entry point at 160.89 plotted by the green line on the chart, aiming for growth to 161.46 plotted by the thicker green line on the chart. Around 161.46, I'm going to exit long positions and open short ones in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from that level. You can count on the pair to rise today after actively defending the intraday low. Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it. Scenario No. 2. I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of 160.52 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reverse market upturn. One can expect growth to the opposite levels of 160.89 and 161.46. Sell signals Scenario No. 1. I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after testing the level of 160.52 plotted by the red line on the chart, which will lead to a rapid decline in the price. The key target for sellers will be 159.95, where I am going to exit short positions and immediately open long ones in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level. Pressure on USD/JPY may return at any moment within the bearish correction. Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it. Scenario No. 2. I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive price tests at 160.89 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reverse market downturn. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels 160.52 and 159.95.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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[B]Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot forecast for EUR/USD on July 9, 2024[/B]

In the absence of any economic reports or news, the market remained in its previous positions. But today it must move. And it's not about the imminent release of US inflation data. After all, this data will be released on Thursday. Today, Federal Reserve Chief Jerome Powell will testify before the US Senate Banking Committee. And tomorrow, he is due to report to the House of Representatives. Politicians will certainly raise the issue of interest rates, especially since the unemployment rate in the United States has been rising for three consecutive months. As a result, the market has revised its expectations regarding the timing and pace of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy easing. Investors are hoping to receive confirmation of the updated forecasts. If these expectations are met, the dollar will resume its decline.

EUR/USD maintains a bullish bias after settling above the 1.0800 level. As a result, there is an increase in the volume of long positions. This may point to the recovery process in the euro. On the 4-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator is hovering in the upper area of 50/70, which points to the bullish sentiment. On the same chart, the Alligator moving averages are headed upwards, which corresponds to the upward cycle. Outlook If the price settles above the 1.0800 mark, it could climb to the 1.0900 level. The bearish will come into play if the price returns below the 1.0800 level.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical Analysis of Weekly Price Movement of S&P 500 Index, Thursday July 11 2024.

Even though on the weekly chart the S&P 500 index still appears to be dominated by Buyers, this is indicated and confirmed by the price movement of #SPX which moves harmoniously in an upward channel and the price movement is above the EMA 20 & EMA 50, but with the appearance of deviations between price movements #SPX which makes higher-highs in its price movements while the MACD indicator makes higher-lows on the contrary, so in the next 1 to 2 weeks it has the potential to be corrected and weakened down to level 5322.39, but as long as the weakening correction does not penetrate below level 4946.59, this index will still has the opportunity to strengthen again to level 5919.63.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on July 15, 2024

EUR/USD By the end of the week, the euro managed to reach the target level of 1.0905, which is the upper boundary of the descending price channel on the weekly timeframe.

The divergence with the Marlin oscillator suggests a reversal, but once again, a gap is interfering. This gap doesn't significantly affect the technical pattern of the reversal because it can be recouped without any noticeable impact. If the price manages to consolidate above 1.0905, the euro will continue to rise to 1.0964 or even higher.

A double divergence has formed on the 4-hour chart. Recouping the gap may not even disrupt the divergence. The first sign of a reversal is when the price moves below the Kijun-sen line (1.0853). This will likely happen no sooner than tomorrow.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot forecast for EUR/USD on July 17, 2024


The dollar was steady despite relatively good data on retail sales. In fact, their growth rate in the United States slowed from 2.6% to 2.3%. The thing is that the growth rate was expected to slow down from 2.3% to 2.1%. So in theory, the dollar should have strengthened somewhat. However, the general sentiment on the dollar is quite negative, as investors expect the Federal Reserve to start lowering its interest rate soon. Thus, the retail sales data simply supported the dollar, preventing it from falling further. Apparently, today we expect a repeat of yesterday's scenario. Sentiments about the Fed's monetary policy still weighs on the dollar. It will be supported by the industrial production data, whose growth rate in the United States should accelerate from 0.1% to 0.4%. But the eurozone inflation data as a whole can not be considered, as the final data are published, designed only to confirm the preliminary estimates, the market has already taken into account.

EUR/USD is moving around the resistance level of 1.0900, which indicates that the bullish sentiment is still in force. On the 4-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator is hovering in the upper area of 50/70, which suggests that the euro may rise further. On the same chart, the Alligator's MAs are headed upwards, which reflects the quote's movement. Outlook Based on the absence of a full-scale correction, we can conclude that there's a high volume of long positions on the euro. Rising above the level of 1.0900 may lead to a new round of growth, where buyers will face the psychological level of 1.1000. As an alternative scenario, traders are considering movement along the level of 1.0900. The complex indicator analysis unveiled that in the short-term and intraday periods, indicators are providing an upward signal.



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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot forecast for EUR/USD on July 19, 2024


The European Central Bank was widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged. What came as a surprise were the Bank's extremely pessimistic assessments of the eurozone economy. This suggests not just further easing of monetary policy, but possibly a more aggressive rate cut. Moreover, ECB President Christine Lagarde said that the next interest-rate meeting is "wide open", hinting that another cut is possible. So, it should not be surprising that the euro actively fell on these remarks. Nevertheless, it is likely to be temporary. The market has long been anticipating the ECB's rate cuts. The main focus now is the upcoming rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Therefore, once the media starts discussing this topic more actively, the euro will likely rise again. It is quite possible that within just a couple of days, the market will return to the levels seen at the start of yesterday's trading.

The volume of long positions on the EUR/USD pair decreased within the lower range of the psychological level of 1.0950/1.1000. As a result, a pullback occurred, causing the price to drop below the 1.0900 mark. The RSI dropped below the average level of 50 in the 4-hour time frame during the price pullback, indicating an increase in the volume of short positions on the euro. Regarding the Alligator indicator in the same time frame, two out of three moving average lines are intertwined, indicating a slowdown in the upward cycle. However, these are initial signs of a slowdown, which do not change the overall trend. Outlook If the price settles below 1.0900 by the end of the week, the pair may enter a corrective phase. Otherwise, the euro's local weakness may benefit the bulls, leading to a new stage of growth. Complex indicator analysis points to a corrective move in the short-term and intraday time frames.


Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of NZD/USD Commodity Currency Pairs, Tuesday July 23, 2024.

With the appearance of deviations between price movements and the MACD Histogram indicator on the 4-hour chart of the NZD/USD commodity currency pair, in the near future there will be a strengthening correction in the Kiwi even though currently the bias is still weak, which is confirmed by the price movement which is below the EMA 20 & EMA 50, but as long as the strengthening correction does not broken above the 0.6061 level, NZD/USD will have the potential to weaken again to the 0.5930 level as the main target and if momentum and volatility support it, NZD/USD will fall to the 0.5839 level.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot forecast for EUR/USD on July 25, 2024

The forex market continues to tread water despite the release of economic reports. According to preliminary assessments, European business activity indices have all declined, while only the manufacturing sector's business activity index showed a decrease in the US. Conversely, the composite index and the services PMI data showed growth and exceeded forecasts. Nevertheless, this had no impact on the situation. The weak eurozone data only prevented the dollar from falling. Almost simultaneously, corporate media began promoting the idea of a rate cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting in July. This idea may gain traction and pressure the market, contributing to the dollar's weakness. Considering that today's macro data will have a minor impact, as changes in unemployment claims are expected to be purely symbolic, the market will likely gradually move towards pushing for the dollar's decline.

EUR/USD is in a corrective phase, trading from the lower area of the psychological level 1.0950/1.1000. As a result, the quote has dropped more than 100 pips, which fits within the cyclical component of the upward trend. On the 4-hour chart, the RSI indicator is moving in the lower area of the 30/50 range. However, it touched the oversold level, indicating an excessive volume of short positions in the euro. During the same time frame, the Alligator's MAs point downwards, aligning with the corrective cycle's direction. Outlook The euro may reach the 1.0800 level if the corrective phase remains intact. However, based on the technical signs of the euro's oversold conditions in the short term, selling volumes may eventually fall, which, in theory, will lead to the end of the corrective cycle. In terms of complex indicator analysis, the volume of long positions may likely rise in the short term. Meanwhile, the bearish bias persists in the intraday period.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot forecast for EUR/USD on July 29, 2024

Considering the empty economic calendar, it's no surprise that market conditions remain unchanged. The dollar is treading water. This situation will likely persist until the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting occurs on Wednesday. It's not just about the meeting itself but also about the lack of macro data.

The corrective cycle slowed down around the 1.0825 level. This was followed by a pullback-stagnant phase characterized by a typical realignment of trading forces. On the 4-hour chart, the RSI is moving along the middle level of 50, indicating a stagnant phase. On the same chart, two of the three moving averages of the Alligator Indicator intersect, indicating a slowdown in the downward cycle. Outlook The bearish movement will come into play if the price falls below the 1.0825 mark. In this scenario, there is a high probability of reaching the 1.0800 level with an attempt to break through it. As for the bullish scenario, it considers the end of the corrective cycle relative to the current values, with a gradual increase in the volume of long positions. In this case, the price will gradually return to the values of the local high of the upward cycle. Complex indicator analysis indicates a stagnant phase in the short- and intraday time frames.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot forecast for EUR/USD on July 31, 2024

Today's Federal Open Market Committee meeting is not only the day's main event, but it will also determine the dynamics of market developments for the entire month ahead. Everything will depend on the statements made by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. However, there is little doubt that Powell will almost explicitly announce the beginning of monetary policy easing in September this year, which will contribute to the U.S. dollar's prolonged weakness.

The volume of short positions on EUR/USD decreased after the pair reached the support level of 1.0800. As a result, there was a price rebound, followed by the pair's stagnation around the base of the corrective cycle. On the 4-hour chart, the RSI indicator is moving in the lower area of 30/50, indicating that the bearish bias persists in the market. Regarding the Alligator indicator on the same time frame, the moving average lines point downward, corresponding to a downward cycle. Expectations and Perspectives Today, speculators' main focus will be on the information flow, which will undoubtedly lead to increased volatility. As for technical analysis, the 1.0800 level will serve as support, enabling the euro to gradually recover relative to the current correction. The bearish scenario will come into play only after the price stabilizes below the 1.0800 level. Complex indicator analysis indicates a price rebound from the 1.0800 level in the short term. Indicators are reflecting a downward cycle in the intraday period.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot forecast for EUR/USD on August 2, 2024

Formally, it is reasonable for the dollar to strengthen. After all, the unemployment rate in the eurozone rose from 6.4% to 6.5%. However, the increase was not as substantial as expected since forecasts anticipated a figure of 6.9%. Nonetheless, unemployment still increased. And what's much more important is the Bank of England's decision to lower the base rate, which was also largely expected. So, it is not that surprising that the dollar has risen. However, the movement ended even before the unemployment data was published in the eurozone and a couple of hours before the BoE meeting outcome. This is what's surprising. It indicates excessive speculative pressure, fraught with the growth of imbalances, which are often corrected by sharp and sudden jumps. Today, a slight weakening of the dollar is likely influenced by the contents of the United States Department of Labor's report. Primarily, this concerns the number of new jobs created outside of agriculture. There are expected to be only 190,000 new jobs, which is the most optimistic forecast. However, considering demographic dynamics, approximately 250,000 new jobs need to be created monthly to maintain labor market stability. However, only 532,000 new jobs were created over the last three months. This indicates further growth in unemployment and the inevitability of interest rate cuts, which will undoubtedly put pressure on the U.S. dollar.

The EUR/USD pair extended the current corrective cycle while the market strengthened its positions on the dollar, breaking through the support level at 1.0800. On the 4-hour chart, the RSI indicator is moving in the lower area of 30/50, indicating that the bearish sentiment persists in the market. Regarding the Alligator indicator on the same time frame, the moving average lines point downward, consistent with the downward cycle. Expectations and Perspectives Based on the euro's local oversold status, the current downward cycle could be interrupted, leading to an attempt to accumulate long positions. However, the main trigger for today will be the information flow, particularly the report from the United States Department of Labor. Thus, technical analysis is relegated to a secondary role.


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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on August 6, 2024

EUR/USD Yesterday's market panic had almost subsided by this morning. Monday did not turn out to be a "black" day. The S&P 500 plummeted by 4.71%, closing at -3.00%. Good ISM figures supported the market: business activity in the non-manufacturing sector strengthened from 49.6 to 54.5 in July, and the employment index rose from 46.1 to 51.1 against an expectation of 46.4. However, the cunning euro buyers we mentioned in our last review chose a bad moment for their action. Market participants did not believe in their notions of a fourfold rate cut by the end of the year, specifically a double decrease of 0.5% each. We saw a similar pattern last November when investors anticipated a sixfold rate cut for the current year, but then the euro fell by 4.5 figures.

After reaching the target level of 1.1010, the price is now ready to form a divergence with the Marlin oscillator on the daily chart. If the pair closes the day below the July 17th peak of 1.0949, the likelihood of the price returning to 1.0905 and attempting to consolidate below this level will significantly increase.

The target level of 1.1018, which we highlighted on the weekly chart, no longer needs to be met with absolute precision unless it is to continue the rise above 1.12.

The price is consolidating below the resistance at 1.0964 in the 4-hour chart. Marlin is striving to exit the overbought zone. If the price consolidates below the level of 1.0905 in this time frame, it will also mean settling below the MACD line on the weekly chart. We're waiting for the market to cool down and form more stable signs of reversal and decline.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: From sell-off to gains: stock indexes show positive dynamics

Markets recover from sharp decline The S&P 500 and Nasdaq jumped 1% on Tuesday, showing a strong recovery from the recent sell-off. Investors began to actively buy stocks again, inspired by positive comments from Federal Reserve officials, which eased fears about a possible recession in the U.S. Global growth and a return to risk Equally on the day, stocks around the world began to recover from the aggressive declines the previous day. Amid this gain, U.S. Treasury yields increased and the dollar strengthened. Investors have returned to buying riskier assets despite lingering concerns about an economic slowdown. Cooling Optimism The Dow Jones Industrial Average also showed positive dynamics, but, like other major indices, it fell by the end of the trading day, falling short of the daily highs. This shows some caution among market participants despite the overall improvement in sentiment. Fed calms markets U.S. Federal Reserve officials issued statements rejecting the view that weak July employment data points to an approaching recession. However, they warned that lowering interest rates may be necessary to prevent a possible economic slowdown. Rate cuts likely Amid weak economic data, stocks were under pressure, fueling fears of a U.S. recession. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are pricing in the likelihood of a rate cut at the next meeting in September, with 75% expecting a 50 basis point cut and 25% expecting a 25 basis point cut. S&P 500 Sectors Advance: The Day's Top Performers All of the major sectors of the S&P 500 ended the day higher, with real estate and financials leading the way. Tech company Nvidia was a particular highlight, jumping nearly 4% to lead the gains for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Investors Return to the Market "The market has been oversupplied, but there's a significant recovery happening, particularly in the Nasdaq. Investors are starting to believe again that lower interest rates will be good for stocks," said Rick Meckler, a partner at Cherry Lane Investments, a family-owned investment firm in New Vernon, N.J. Indices Are Rising The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 294.39 points, or 0.76%, to 38,997.66. The S&P 500 gained 53.7 points, or 1.04%, to 5,240.03, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 166.77 points, or 1.03%, to 16,366.86. The Impact of Artificial Intelligence The Nasdaq Composite has risen 9% in 2024, helped by strong earnings and a bullish outlook for AI. However, as Meckler noted, "while recent earnings have been good, they have fallen short of expectations in many cases." Market valuations remain high, with the S&P 500 trading at 20 times trailing 12-month earnings, according to LSEG, well above the long-term average of 15.7. Expectations and Risks Amid unexpected developments such as the Bank of Japan's recent rate hike, investors have begun to unwind the yen-denominated financing that has been used to buy stocks for years. This has added to market uncertainty and left many wondering about the outlook. Awaiting Powell's Speech One of the key events investors are watching is Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at a symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, scheduled for August 22-24. His words could influence future market moves and provide insight into the future of monetary policy. Uber and Caterpillar Succeed Uber shares soared 11%, beating Wall Street's second-quarter revenue and profit expectations. The company was able to show solid growth thanks to strong demand for its ride-sharing and food delivery services. Meanwhile, Caterpillar shares rose 3% as the company also beat analysts' forecasts despite weaker demand in North America. Rising prices for heavy equipment such as excavators helped offset those losses. Trading Activity on the Rise Trading volume on U.S. stock exchanges totaled 13.52 billion shares, above the 20-day average of 12.48 billion. Advancing stocks outnumbered declining stocks on the New York Stock Exchange by a 2.59-to-1 ratio, while the Nasdaq saw a 1.93-to-1 ratio. Highs and Lows The S&P 500 posted 12 new 52-week highs and seven new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite posted 31 new highs and 144 new lows. These figures highlight the continued volatile market, with gains and losses alike. Oil Prices Rebounding Oil prices also edged higher after falling to multi-month lows on Monday. Investors' attention has shifted to supply-side concerns, which, along with a recovery in financial markets, has eased concerns about future energy demand. Nikkei recovery: relief after collapse Tokyo's Nikkei index rose 10%, providing some relief after its 12.4% plunge on Monday. The drop was the biggest one-day sell-off in Japan since Black Monday in 1987, causing global investor jitters. Fed: Slowdown, not recession U.S. Federal Reserve officials on Monday dismissed speculation about a recession despite weak employment data for July. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly stressed that current data suggest the economy is slowing, but not collapsing. She noted the importance of preventing a labor market crisis. Global Markets Rise The MSCI index, which tracks shares around the world, rose 8.91 points, or 1.17%, to 770.99, off its daily high of 777.81. That followed a more than 3% drop on Monday, marking the third straight day of losses for the global market. European Markets Volatility Europe's STOXX 600 index ended the session up 0.29%, despite earlier volatility, when it fell 0.54%. That underscores the nervousness among European investors trying to adjust to rapidly changing market conditions. FX Market Jitters On the FX front, the dollar strengthened against its major counterparts, while the Japanese yen hit seven-month highs against the US dollar. Some of the more dramatic moves of recent days have eased, and markets are beginning to feel a sense of calm again. Dollar Strengthens Amid Currency Volatility The dollar index, which tracks the dollar against major currencies including the yen and euro, rose 0.07% to 102.94. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar gained 0.4% to 144.74, while the euro weakened 0.2% to $1.093. U.S. Treasury Yields Rise U.S. Treasury yields rose as fears of a potential recession in the country proved overblown, dampening demand for safe-haven U.S. bonds. The 10-year yield rose 12 basis points to 3.903%, while the 30-year yield rose 12.1 basis points to 4.1924%. The yield on 2-year bonds, which often react to changes in interest rate expectations, also rose to 3.9936%. Oil prices recover Oil prices have stabilized after falling on Monday. U.S. crude rose 0.36% to $73.20 a barrel, while Brent crude ended the trading session at $76.48 a barrel, up 0.24% from the previous day. Precious Metals: Gold Loses Ground With the dollar strengthening and bond yields rising, precious metals prices fell. Spot gold fell 0.82% to $2,387.88 an ounce. U.S. gold futures also fell 0.37% to $2,392.70 an ounce. However, expectations of a U.S. interest rate cut in September and ongoing tensions in the Middle East limited gold's losses, maintaining its appeal as a safe haven asset.


Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on August 12, 2024

On the weekly chart, the price consolidated above the MACD indicator line. The probability of a retest of the target level of 1.1010 or reaching 1.1043 has slightly increased. At the same time, we observe the formation of a very extended wedge on the Marlin oscillator.

Long wedges rarely precede strong, sustained movements; however, the price is clearly on the brink of significant changes that could take it out of the prolonged range of 1.0636-1.1010. If the price breaks below this range, the target levels are 1.0369 and 1.0173.

On the daily chart, the price struggles with the support at 1.0905, aided by divergence with the Marlin oscillator. Therefore, a weekly close in the form of a Doji could also be a false signal. A daily close below the 1.0905 level would indicate the development of the main bearish scenario. After all, the opening of a new weekly candle occurred below the MACD line.

On the 4-hour chart, the price is currently moving above the balance indicator line (red moving average). If the price consolidation above 1.0905 continues, the balance line will be above the price. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is moving sideways in negative (descending) territory, which increases the likelihood of the price dropping below support in this time frame. Moving below the MACD line (1.0877) would confirm the price's intention to reach the 1.0788 target.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on August 14, 2024

The euro's neutral situation gained upward momentum yesterday. On the weekly chart, the Marlin oscillator's signal line emerged from the wedge upwards

If the price manages to consolidate above the level of 1.1010 on the daily chart, it could potentially open up a medium-term growth prospect. The first target would be 1.1043, followed by 1.1085the peak from December 28 of last year.

n the daily chart, the divergence has transformed into a regular upward movement of the Marlin oscillator, which is still far from overbought conditions. Forming a double top is only possible if the price falls from 1.1010.

In the 4-hour chart, the euro continues to rise. The price broke away from the balance line upwards, and the Marlin oscillator entered positive territory. We await key developments at the critical level of 1.1010.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot forecast for EUR/USD on September 3, 2024

Due to the holiday in the United States, the market situation remained unchanged. Strangely enough, this stagnation might continue today; this time, it will be due to an empty economic calendar. The final data on the U.S. Manufacturing PMI is unlikely to have any significant impact. Even if it differs somewhat from the preliminary estimates, its influence will likely be more symbolic, as the market has already largely priced in this factor. The only thing that might affect the situation is possible statements from representatives of the European Central Bank. After all, inflation in the Eurozone is slowing down noticeably faster than in the United States. Therefore, the ECB might hint at a slightly more aggressive easing of monetary policy, which, in turn, could strengthen the U.S. dollar's position. However, such a development is unlikely since central banks do not make decisions based on data alone. They are more interested in the trend over time, and the recent decline in inflation in Europe may be temporary.

The EUR/USD pair is moving within the upper deviation of the psychological level of 1.1000/1.1050, indicating a sustained corrective cycle from the local high of the medium-term trend. In the 4-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator has left the oversold zone but remains in the sellers' area between 30 and 50. Regarding the Alligator indicator in the same time frame, the moving average lines (MA) point downward, which corresponds to the corrective phase. Expectations and Prospects Stabilizing the price below the 1.1050 mark is sufficient for the next stage of the decline. However, this will only result in a local shift of the support point toward the lower area of the psychological level. The complex indicator analysis points to a corrective price move in the short-term and intraday periods. Indicators point to an upward trend in the medium term.


Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on September 5, 2024

Despite yesterday's increase in volatility and the expansion of the sideways range, the euro maintained the boundaries of safe wandering, closing the day at the upper boundary of this rangeat the resistance level of 1.1085. The Marlin oscillator continued to develop within a narrow range along the zero neutral line.

Today, the euro will likely decline as we await tomorrow's US employment data. The data is expected to be strong, and the primary scenario for the euro remains bearish. An attack on the support level of 1.1010 is likely. In the 4-hour chart, the price convergence with the Marlin oscillator has been processed.

The price was raised by 67 pips from the day's low. At the resistance level of 1.1065, the price also met the balance indicator line. A downward price reversal from this line tells us that yesterday's rise was a standard correction. A breakdown of the downward movement is possible if the price consolidates above the level of 1.1140, which is marked as a key MACD line.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on September 9, 2024

The currency market's reaction to Friday's US employment data was surprisingly muted the dollar index changed by 0.07%, gold dropped by 0.73%, and oil by 2.14%. The stock market reacted strongly, with a decline of 1.73%. In the non-farm sector, 142,000 new jobs were created in August against a forecast of 162,000, with July's figures revised downward by 25,000. Unemployment decreased from 4.3% to 4.2%. The broader U6 unemployment rate increased from 7.8% to 7.9%. However, hourly earnings increased by 0.4% for the month. Overall, our expectations for good data were met. But we don't see the authorities' desire to manipulate the market here; the data came out at the forecast level and maintained a slight intrigue regarding the September rate cut. We believe the rate will be lowered by 0.25%, but some players are still pricing in a 30% probability of a 0.50% rate cut in September and a 41% probability of a 0.50% cut at the December meeting. Hence, the main movement of the dollar strengthening will start from September 18.

On Thursday, September 12, the European Central Bank will lower the rate by 0.25%. Market participants fully anticipate such a decrease, but it has not yet been priced in. We believe that market participants will wait until the Federal Reserve's decision and then start actively buying dollars. Currently, on the daily chart, the euro is in a balanced stateat the support level of 1.1085and this equilibrium is confirmed by the Marlin oscillator, which is on the zero line. According to the main scenario, the euro needs to consolidate below the support level, and then an attempt can be made to target 1.1010. Generally, we expect the euro to be in the range of 1.0888-1.0905.

In the 4-hour chart, the price is above the balance line, with Marlin in the positive area. Price growth is possible, but it is limited by the MACD line around 1.1113. In general, the sideways movement of the euro is likely today and tomorrow.


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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on September 11, 2024

 

If the debate between Donald Trump and Joseph Biden was a real disaster, yesterday's debate with Kamala Harris was much smoother and didn't cause any panic. So, the markets were able to ignore them. Investors can now calmly focus solely on U.S. inflation, especially since the rate of consumer price growth is expected to slow from 2.9% to 2.6%. This would likely convince the markets of a 50-basis-point cut in the Federal Reserve's interest rate. Thus, there is a high likelihood of a significant weakening of the U.S. dollar.

 

After testing the previous week's local low, the EUR/USD pair has resumed its corrective cycle. However, this movement didn't lead to any radical changes; the price merely returned to the upper deviation area of the psychological level of 1.1000/1.1050. In the 4-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator is moving in the lower 30/50 range, indicating bearish sentiment among market participants. Regarding the Alligator indicator in the same time frame, the moving average lines point downwards, which coincides with the direction of the price movement. Expectations and Prospects Stabilizing the price below the 1.1000 mark is necessary for the next phase of the decline. However, this would only shift the local support level to the lower region of the psychological range. Until that happens, traders are considering a price rebound as the main scenario on the market. The complex indicator analysis suggests a price rebound in the short term, while indicators point to a downward cycle in the intraday period.

 

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

 

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on September 13, 2024

Perhaps never before have we seen a scenario where, following a 60 basis point cut in the refinancing rate, the currency issued by the central bank making such a significant move actually rises. But that's precisely what happened yesterday. After the European Central Bank lowered the interest rate from 4.25% to 3.65%, the single currency didn't even consider a decline. On the contrary, it grew quite confidently. And this was the largest single cut in the refinancing rate in the entire history of the ECB. While it's now listed in virtually every economic calendar that this outcome was predicted, that's not entirely accurate. Right before the meeting, forecasts were pointing to a rate of 4.00%. That was changed almost after the fact. So, this large cut was an outright surprise. This raises the question of why the euro continued to rise afterward. The answer lies in the comments made by ECB President Christine Lagarde. During her press conference, she explicitly stated that the ECB is putting the monetary policy easing process on hold. In other words, no more rate cuts for now. The market, however, had expected this process to be drawn out over a more extended period. Now, the Federal Reserve will be lowering interest rates, not the ECB. This shift in expectations likely spurred the euro's rise. However, interest rates in the United States are still significantly higher than those in Europe, which is unlikely to change. The only question is the size of the interest rate disparity. This fact will continue to put pressure on the euro. Once the market recovers from the initial shock, the dollar will likely resume steadily strengthening its position.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on September 17, 2024

Leading media outlets are increasingly promoting the idea of a 50-basis point cut in the U.S. rate, contributing to further weakening of the U.S. dollar. Considering that the Federal Open Market Committee meeting is tomorrow, this trend is likely to persist until the close of today's trading. However, the scale of the dollar's weakening is expected to be somewhat more modest than yesterday. The dollar will find some support from macroeconomic data. Despite the possible slowdown in retail sales growth, from 2.7% to 2.2%, the decline in industrial production of -0.3% is likely to turn into growth of 0.2%. So, two key sectors of the economy might show growth, which should provide at least some support for the dollar.

Since the start of the new trading week, the euro's recovery has accelerated, allowing it to surpass the 1.1100 level. This price movement indicates more than a 60% recovery relative to the recent corrective cycle. In the four-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator is moving in the buyers' area of 50/70, indicating a bullish market sentiment. It is worth noting that the overbought zone has already been reached. Regarding the Alligator indicator in the same time frame, the moving average lines point upward, aligning with the price movement. Expectations and Prospects The price's stabilization above 1.1100 may indicate further growth in the volume of long positions in the euro, which, from a technical analysis perspective, suggests the possibility of the price rising toward the resistance level of 1.1200. The alternative scenario considers a slowdown in the upward cycle in the form of a pullback due to the euro's local overbought condition in the short term. The complex indicator analysis indicates a sustained upward cycle in the short-term, intraday, and medium-term periods.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on September 19, 2024


For the first time in four years, the Federal Reserve lowered its interest rates by a substantial 50 basis points. This move was driven not only by the steady slowdown in inflation but also by the U.S. central bank's concerns about the potential slide of the economy into a recession. However, what is truly surprising is the market's reaction the dollar immediately started to rise significantly. The reason lies in the statements made by Jerome Powell. The head of the U.S. central bank promptly warned the markets not to expect the same pace of monetary policy easing to continue. According to him, the Federal Open Market Committee is considering cutting interest rates by another 50 bps by the end of this year, but this will happen gradually. With only two meetings left this year, this means 25 basis points at each meeting. However, everything will depend on macroeconomic dynamics. Given that the pace of inflation will surely slow down, there is a possibility that the central bank might only lower its interest rates once before the start of next year. This is precisely why the dollar began to strengthen, as the markets were expecting a more aggressive monetary policy easing. Today, the focus shifts to the Bank of England, which will likely set the tone for further actions by key central banks. The British central bank is expected to keep its interest rates unchanged. In the context of the Fed starting to lower its rates, such a step by the BoE would provide momentum for the pound to rise. This, in turn, would also pull up the euro via the dollar index.


The EUR/USD pair, driven by a strong flow of news and information, shows increased volatility. During this period, the price almost reached the 1.1200 mark. The upward sentiment remains undeniable despite the previous trading day's closing near the opening level. In the four-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator is moving in the buyers' zone of 50/70, indicating a bullish sentiment. Regarding the Alligator indicator in the same time frame, the moving average lines point upward, aligning with the current price movement. Expectations and Prospects For the next stage of growth, price stabilization above 1.1150 is necessary. Under this scenario, it is possible to see an update of the mid-term trend high, located around the 1.1200/1.1280 range. Comprehensive indicator analysis in the short-term and intraday periods supports a sustained upward trend.


Analysis are provided by InstaForex.



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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on September 23, 2024

On Friday, the euro tried for the third time to test the resistance of the target level of 1.1186 and the upper boundary of the price channel. If this continues, the resistance will eventually fall. Consolidating above this level will open the target of 1.1276. However, this will not yet signal the start of a medium-term rise, as the potential divergence with the Marlin oscillator may still take effect.

Several counter-dollar currencies have already formed such divergence. The euro can reverse without divergence, similar to what happened in November 2022 but in an upward scenario. For this to occur, the Marlin oscillator must consolidate in the downtrend territory, and the price must subsequently consolidate below the MACD line.

On the four-hour chart, Marlin is close to crossing into negative territory. If the price breaks through the support level of 1.1076, it will also mean breaking through the MACD line in this time frame. The situation remains bullish on both timeframes, so we will wait to see how events unfold. The Eurozone September Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) will be released today. A slight weakening is expected, with the composite PMI from S&P Global forecasted to drop from 51.0 to 50.6. This upward trend may change.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Overview of GBP/USD on September 25; The Pound Doesn't Care Where or When to Rise

Guess what? The GBP/USD pair continued to move upward on Tuesday. The movement was relatively weak this time, but we also warned about this yesterday. Yes, the market didn't have reasons to sell the dollar and buy the pound this time, but it didn't have them on Monday either. Nevertheless, the British currency also grew on the first trading day of the week. Let's recall that on Monday, the UK published the Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMI) for the services and manufacturing sectors, which turned out to be weaker than expected. Therefore, the pound had every reason to fall by at least 30-40 pips. And it did fall, but what's the point if it eventually rose by 80 pips without any reason? On Tuesday, there was no news from the UK or the US, yet the British currency continued its sluggish growth. Thus, we can draw an unambiguous conclusion time passes, but the situation in the forex market doesn't change. We've been talking about the illogical upward movement since the beginning of the year because even back then, it was evident that the pound was rising much more frequently than there was positive news from the UK or negative news from the US. It's the end of September, and the pound still rises whenever and wherever it wants. You can endlessly debate that the market is "experiencing a rise in risk sentiment" or that "the market expects a divergence in Federal Reserve and Bank of England rates," but all of this is just an attempt to present wishful thinking as reality. The US dollar has been falling for two consecutive years. If the market is currently pricing in the future divergence between the Fed/BoE rates, why was the pound rising a year ago or even a year and a half ago?

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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