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IFX bella · Senior Member

Wave Analysis by InstaForex

IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical Analysis of Daily Price Movement of EUR/USD Main Currency Pairs, Monday October 07, 2024.

With the appearance of deviations between the price movements of the main currency pair EUR/USD which formed a Higher-High (Double Top) while inversely proportional to the Stochastic Oscillator indicator which actually formed a Higher Low, it gives an indication that in the next few days seller pressure will begin to occur even though a strengthening correction could occur but as long as it does not break above the level of 1.1145, EUR/USD will still remain under pressure and will try to test the level of 1.0943 if this level is successfully broken down, Fiber will try to test the next two targets, namely 1.0829 and 1.0679.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on October 8, 2024

Retail sales in the Eurozone grew by 0.8%, which was only slightly below the forecast of 0.9%. Nevertheless, this is an excellent result after a decline of -0.1%. However, judging by the market's reaction, investors are focused on further strengthening the dollar. Despite the dollar being overbought, no local rebound has occurred, and the market remained stagnant. The formal reason for this was the Eurozone data, which turned out to be slightly worse than expected. But after all, we are talking about sales growth, not a decline. Considering that today's macroeconomic calendar is empty, we will likely see not so much a continuation of the stagnation but rather a slow weakening of the euro.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on 09.10.2024

The market seems to be at a standstill, not so much because of the absence of any macroeconomic data but rather due to the anticipation of tomorrow's inflation data release in the United States. Some data has been released, such as crude oil inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute, which surprised significantly with an increase of 10.9 million barrels. However, these figures rarely substantially impact the market, as they precede the more influential report from the U.S. Department of Energy. Nevertheless, this sharp increase has already led to adjustments in forecasts for today's figures, with investors now expecting a 1.9 million barrel rise in inventories. However, the dollar will wait for the release of inflation data due tomorrow. According to forecasts, the growth rate of consumer prices is likely to slow from 2.5% to 2.3%. Given the dollar's clear overbought status, a slowdown in inflation could be an excellent trigger for a significant correction. However, no one is willing to take risks prematurely, as U.S. data have been full of surprises lately.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on 10.10.2024

The dollar continues its triumphant march, even amid talks that the Federal Reserve might lower interest rates by fifty basis points again. Today's release of inflation data in the United States fueled these discussions. The growth rate of consumer prices will likely slow from 2.5% to 2.3%, bringing it closer to the target level of 2.0%. However, despite the confident slowdown in inflation, it is doubtful that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will lower the refinancing rate by fifty basis points at its next meeting. After all, inflation is just one of the key indicators. Another is the labor market. Based on recent data, unemployment has once again declined, which supports the case for maintaining higher interest rates. It's clear that the U.S. central bank won't tighten its monetary policy further, but a large-scale easing is also not on the table. Nonetheless, the dollar is overbought, and the market needs at least a local correction. Thus, a slowdown in inflation could be an excellent reason for a correction.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on October 11, 2024

Yesterday's moderately pessimistic news from the U.S. unsettled the euro, causing it to fluctuate within a daily range of 55 points and close the day with a loss of only 4 points. The number of unemployment benefit claimants increased by 42,000 over the week, casting doubts on the strong employment data from last Friday. The core CPI rose in September from 3.2% to 3.3% year-on-year, while the overall CPI fell from 2.5% to 2.4%, against an expectation of 2.3%. Naturally, the potential ECB rate cut next week is also adding pressure. However, the dollar's balance remains uncertain due to tensions in the Middle East and the simultaneous easing of monetary policy by both the ECB and the Federal Reserve. Considering the ongoing strong growth in the stock and commodity markets, the euro could potentially begin to strengthen ahead of the ECB meeting, as it seeks this balance. Since the start of the week, the euro has only declined by 38 points, clearly indicating its reluctance to fall further.

On the daily chart, the price has consolidated below the 1.0950 level. The long lower shadow indicates that another attempt to reach 1.0882 is unlikely. Even if the euro is declining from the 1.1185 level, this entire movement appears as indecisive trading driven by geopolitical factors. It is likely to end with the price breaking above the 1.1010 level. A breakthrough above 1.1076, along with the MACD line, would signal the euro's return to medium-term growth.

On the four-hour chart, the price's convergence with the oscillator has evolved. The Marlin oscillator is in positive territory but has not yet exited the consolidation range. The reversal is still in progress. Here, the price needs to break above the 1.1010 level to also overcome the resistance of the MACD line. We continue to wait.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for October 14, 2024

The new economic measures announced by the Chinese government on Saturday did not meet investors' expectations. Essentially, it was only a statement of intent, with plans for gradual implementation, especially in the real estate sector and local governments. Nevertheless, Asian markets are up today, continuing Friday's optimism (S&P 500 up by 0.61%).

Tomorrow, data on industrial production in the Eurozone (1.8% for August) and ZEW indices, which are also expected to show strong growth dynamics, will be released. We expect the price to break above the 1.0950 resistance level.

On the four-hour chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator is fluctuating near the zero line, and the price is under pressure from the indicator lines. The price needs to consolidate above the 1.0950 level before encountering the MACD line; otherwise, the euro could decline below 1.0882.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for October 15, 2024

The euro stubbornly refuses to reverse direction. Even yesterday's 0.77% rise in the stock market, which set a new all-time high, did not halt the euro's decline. The euro is close to consolidating below the 1.0882 level and collapsing to 1.0777. If this happens, the long-term reversal to a downtrend would have already begun with a turn from 1.1186 in a dull and uneventful manner, without triggering the liquidation of large sell orders (reportedly the largest volumes since April).

This scenario became highly probable this morning due to the proximity of the price to the key level. Additionally, the S&P 500 reached its anticipated reversal target, and oil prices dropped by 3.45% yesterday. Now, we doubt the euro will find the strength, or investors' will, to support the single currency against the ECB's rate cut. If the euro does rise, it is unlikely to go above 1.1010, with the best-case scenario being a move to 1.1076 for a retest of the MACD line. Today, European industrial production data and ZEW business sentiment indexes might provide some support for the euro

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast on EUR/USD from 16.10.2024

It was initially expected that the rate of decline in industrial production in the eurozone would slow from -2.2% to -1.0%, but the decline was replaced by growth of 0.1%. Moreover, previous data was revised upward to -2.1%. The situation in the eurozone's industrial sector was much better than anticipated. Nevertheless, no correction occurred in the currency market. The dollar continued to rise, although the scale of its growth was merely symbolic. The market's behavior seems strange unless we consider the upcoming ECB board meeting. A month and a half ago, the ECB cut the refinancing rate from 4.25% to 3.65%, and after such a significant easing of monetary policy, everyone was confident that interest rates would remain unchanged for the rest of the year. However, at the beginning of this week, rumors started circulating that the ECB might cut the refinancing rate by another 25 basis pointspossibly as soon as this Thursday. This is particularly suggested by inflation, which continues to decline steadily. And indeed, on Thursday, the final inflation data will be published, which should confirm this assumption. Thus, the strong industrial production data supported the euro, preventing it from weakening further. Today, the macroeconomic calendar is nearly empty, and the market will likely consolidate around current levels. Ahead of significant events such as the ECB board meeting and the release of inflation data in the eurozone, few will be willing to take major risks.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast on EUR/USD From 17.10.2024

The market seems to no longer doubt that the European Central Bank will again lower the refinancing rate todayby another 25 basis points, from 3.65% to 3.40%. This decision is already being priced into the value of the euro, which has significantly depreciated recently, and there's no doubt that it's oversold. Therefore, even after the ECB announces its decision, there's no need to expect a noticeable weakening of the euro. Given the market's apparent need for at least a local correction, it's likely that soon after the ECB's governing council meeting, we will see the euro rise. This is especially likely if Christine Lagarde announces that inflation targets have been met, meaning that further monetary policy easing is not expected. Such a scenario is quite possible, as preliminary inflation data suggests that the rate of consumer price growth has slowed from 2.2% to 1.8%. The final inflation figures are expected to be published just before the meeting, which should confirm the preliminary estimates.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on 18.10.2024

As expected, the European Central Bank lowered the refinancing rate by 25 basis points. However, the central bank managed to deliver a surprise. Over the last three months, the ECB has reduced interest rates by a total of 85 basis points, while inflation has slowed to 1.7%. This was, incidentally, below the preliminary estimate of 1.8%. Against this backdrop, a pause in further monetary easing seemed logical, at the very least. Instead, Christine Lagarde announced yesterday that there would be another rate cut as soon as December of this year by an additional 25 basis points. This development was a complete surprise to investors, and the single European currency continued to lose ground. However, the euro weakening could have been much more significant if it had not been for the U.S. macroeconomic data. Specifically, the growth rate of retail sales in the United States slowed from 2.2% to 1.7%, which, however, turned out to be slightly better than the forecast of 1.6%. On the other hand, the decline in industrial production accelerated from -0.2% to -0.6%, whereas a 0.4% growth had been expected. In other words, the U.S. data provided some support for the euro. In any case, the dollar's overbought condition has worsened even further, and the market will clearly latch onto any minor reason to initiate at least a local correction. However, today's macroeconomic calendar is generally empty. Perhaps the media will provide a reason. The market will likely consolidate around current levels if there are no significant events.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD and GBP/USD Technical Analysis for October 21

Higher Time Frames Last week, the bears tested the weekly cloud (1.0862 1.0811), but the week ended with only a long lower shadow. The market closed the week above the weekly cloud, so testing these levels will continue. The bears' immediate plans still include breaking through the cloud (1.0862 1.0811) and forming a weekly downward target. Meanwhile, the bulls will be aided by the momentum that led to the emergence of an upward correction at the end of last week. This correction's immediate target is the daily short-term trend (1.0897). The next focus will be on the monthly time frame resistances at 1.0912-08 (monthly short-term trend and lower boundary of the monthly cloud) and 1.0932 (weekly medium-term trend).

H4 H1 The bears still maintain their advantage in the lower time frames, but the pair has risen to the key levels at 1.0855 (central Pivot point of the day) 1.0874 (weekly long-term trend). Consolidation above this trend and its reversal could shift the balance of power in favor of the bulls. The following targets for upward movement during the day would be the resistances of the classic Pivot points (1.0883 1.0899 1.0927). If bearish activity resumes and the decline continues, the market's focus will shift to breaking through the supports of the classic Pivot points (1.0839 1.0811 1.0795).

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on 10/22/2024

The anticipated correction for the dollar remains unfulfilled, as the modest signs of its beginning led nowhere. The dollar began to grow actively again. The reason behind this development is a series of statements from Federal Reserve representatives suggesting that there is no need to maintain the current pace of rate cuts. Instead, they even hinted at possibly slowing down the cuts, suggesting a potential pause. This means that by the end of the year, the U.S. central bank might lower rates only once rather than twice as previously anticipated. Not surprisingly, this has fueled the dollar's upward movement. Today, it's the turn of the European Central Bank (ECB) representatives to make statements regarding monetary policy. There's a high chance that the euro might see a rebound, potentially marking the start of the much-anticipated correction. Over the past three months, the ECB has cut the refinancing rate by a total of 85 basis pointsa significant reduction. Many expected that the recent ECB Governing Council meeting would not change the rates, which seemed quite reasonable. After such active monetary easing and a drop in inflation below 2.0%, the ECB might opt to pause and observe further developments. This situation could lead to a scenario where, even if the Fed slows its pace of monetary easing, it continues to lower interest rates while the ECB at least takes a short pause, keeping rates steady. This would be enough for the euro to strengthen. Thus, the second attempt at a correction could be successful.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on 10/23/2024

Although the refinancing rate in the eurozone has been cut by eighty-five basis points over the past three months, the European Central Bank has no plans to slow the pace of its monetary policy easing. Christine Lagarde essentially stated this directly. However, this did not lead to a significant weakening of the single European currency. The scale of the dollar's strengthening has been purely symbolic, mainly because the dollar is already excessively overbought. Moreover, the European Central Bank head made similar statements during the press conference following the last meeting of the European Central Bank's board. So, she didn't provide any fundamentally new information. Nonetheless, the dollar's overbought condition remains. On the contrary, it has slightly intensified. However, the market cannot grasp anything to implement the much-needed correction. Given that today's macroeconomic calendar is almost empty, at best, we may see only a symbolic weakening of the US dollar.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD and GBP/USD on October 24 Technical Analysis Overview

EUR/USD

Bearish players continue to operate below the weekly Ichimoku cloud (1.0811), extending the downtrend. The following bearish targets in this chart section are the daily cloud breakout target (1.0710 1.0654) and the monthly support level (1.0611). Bullish players need to rise and consolidate above the weekly cloud (1.0811 1.0864) to gain new opportunities and prospects in the current situation, with support from the daily short-term trend (1.0850).

GBP/USD

Yesterday, bearish players left the daily Ichimoku cloud (1.2965) and secured a position below the weekly medium-term trend (1.2939). These levels and the daily short-term trend (1.3003) are currently the nearest targets for bullish players, should they decide to regain their positions and take the initiative. Meanwhile, for the development of the decline and the strengthening of bearish sentiment, the first area of support is at 1.2797 1.2864, encompassing the monthly cloud, monthly short-term trend, and the final level of the weekly golden cross of the Ichimoku.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on October 25, 2024

The excessive overbought condition of the dollar has indeed impacted the market, as the single European currency managed to show some growth despite the preliminary estimates of business activity indexes. The composite business activity index in the Eurozone rose from 49.6 to 49.7 points, although the forecast was for 50.1 points. This outcome was due to the services activity index, which fell from 51.4 to 51.2 points, whereas an increase to 51.7 points was expected. However, some support came from the manufacturing activity index, which increased from 45.0 to 45.9 points, exceeding the anticipated rise to 45.2 points. More notable is that the single currency demonstrated slight but consistent growth, even in the face of similar data from the United States, which exceeded forecasts. Specifically, the manufacturing activity index in the U.S. rose from 47.3 to 47.8 points instead of the expected increase of 47.6 points. The services activity index, expected to decline from 55.2 to 55.0 points, actually grew to 55.3 points. As a result, the composite activity index climbed from 54.0 to 54.3 points despite predictions that it would remain unchanged. Thus, market behavior indicates that the potential for dollar growth is exhausted, at least for now. The dollar's overbought condition has remained, so expecting a sustained rise in the euro seems reasonable.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: GOLD Technical Analysis

Last week, gold rose to challenge the psychological level of 2750.00. After stalling at this resistance, it continued to test this level throughout the week, setting a new all-time high at 2757.96. If the upward momentum continues, gold could reach new heights. All target levels indicated by the Ichimoku indicator have already been achieved, so the focus can now shift to psychological "round" levels, which historically have proven significant. The following levels are 2800.00, 2850.00, 2900.00, and so on. In a downward correction, the daily Ichimoku cross will receive initial support. On Monday, these support levels are at 2708.10 (Tenkan) and 2680.45 (Kijun). If bearish players actively push lower and quickly break the daily golden cross, their attention will likely shift to weekly Ichimoku support levels. The nearest level from the weekly cross is the short-term trend at 2614.68. If the downward correction is prolonged, the weekly levels will rise closer to the daily cross, providing additional support for bullish interests.

H4 H1 In lower time frames, the uncertainty seen in higher time frames has led to a lack of clear, decisive movement. However, the advantage still leans towards bullish players. Currently, gold is trading above the weekly long-term trend at 2731.80. Any further rise will need to overcome the resistance of the classic Pivot Points, which provide good intraday guidance. Losing support from the weekly long-term trend at 2731.80 would shift the balance of power, drawing market attention to bearish targets at the support levels of the classic Pivot Points. It's essential to note that the values of these Pivot Points will update upon market opening.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on 29.10.2024

Recently, the euro has fluctuated upward, often without any specific reason. It's clearly largely oscillating around the 1.08 mark, with movements merely representing minor deviations from this level. Given that this week is sparse on macroeconomic data, this situation will likely continue until Friday. Additionally, with the U.S. presidential elections set for next Tuesday, the uncertainty intensifies, as the outcome remains highly unpredictable and the media portray the two candidates as complete opposites. In other words, the atmosphere is tense, and few are willing to take risks in such a setting. Therefore, this stagnation may well extend into the middle of next week.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on 30.10.2024

The euro has been treading water for an entire week. However, today, it might be able to strengthen its position against the dollar and potentially reduce its current oversold state. This potential boost could come from the preliminary Eurozone GDP data for Q3, precisely the initial estimate, which tends to have the most impact. According to forecasts, Eurozone economic growth is expected to accelerate from 0.6% to 1.0%. This is a fairly positive outcome, given the significant concerns about the prospects of the European economy. As a result, the euro could gain a considerable boost in optimism and strengthen its position noticeably. Moreover, according to forecasts, similar data from the United States is expected to show stable growth rates. Although growth rates in Europe are lower, the mere improvement in dynamics is a positive factor.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD and GBP/USD Technical Analysis for October 31

EUR/USD

Higher Time Frames Yesterday, the bulls climbed above the daily short-term trend (1.0817) but couldn't break through the weekly resistances (1.0844 1.0863 1.0876) on the first attempt, leaving this task still relevant. Today marks the end of the month. October has been dominated by bearish sentiment, and the focus now is on the length of the lower shadow of the monthly candle and whether the bears can close the month as optimistically as possible.

H4 H1 In the lower time frames, the bulls currently hold the advantage. They may soon leave the H4 cloud and form an upward target for breaking through it. As a result, additional targets in the form of classic Pivot levels (1.0884 1.0909 1.0947) will be added to the H4 targets during the day. If the bears gain control, the most crucial target for corrective decline would be the weekly long-term trend (1.0819). A breakthrough and reversal of this trend could shift the current balance of power. The following downside targets during the day will be the support levels of classic Pivots levels (1.0783 1.0758). GBP/USD

H4 H1 On the lower time frames, the market has recently been hovering around the key levels of 1.2980 1.2975 (central Pivot point of the day + weekly long-term trend), which are currently horizontal, supporting uncertainty. Breaking out of this zone and strengthening the direction of either side will lead to a decisive movement. For the bulls, targets would be the classic Pivot resistance levels (1.3023 1.3086 1.3129), while for the bears, they would be the support levels (1.2917 1.2874 1.2811).

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: GOLD Technical Analysis

On Friday, the weekly result was marked by an uncertainty candle with an extended upper shadow. It is possible that the bears found a good spot for a corrective decline, as the bulls failed to reach 2800.00 and closed October below the psychological level of 2750.00, which had been actively tested throughout the second half of the month. It should be noted that the bears secured support from the daily short-term trend (2748.92), which is now defending their interests. If a decline develops, the primary task for the bears at this section of the chart will be to test, break, and eliminate the daily golden cross, which currently can be marked at levels 2718.28 2696.24 2674.21. For the bulls, the nearest prospects maintain their relevance and position. New bullish opportunities may arise only after the 2750.00 level is broken and the resistance zone 2800.00 is tested and overcome.

H4 H1 On the lower time frames, the pair tested the weekly long-term trend (2756.36) from below on Friday, with the bears managing to defend their advantage and remain below the trend. Soon, it will be necessary for the bears to break through the H4 cloud, exit, and secure a position in the bearish zone relative to the cloud. If the cloud break is realized, additional downward targets on the lower timeframes, including the supports of the classic Pivot levels, will be added with the newly formed target for the H4 cloud breakout. If the bulls use the cloud's support and push off from it, simultaneously gaining the weekly long-term trend, then the intraday market focus will shift to the resistances of the classic Pivot levels. On the higher time frames, bulls will again aim to conquer 2750.00 and reach 2800.00. Updated classic Pivot level values for guidance will appear when trading opens at the start of the new workweek.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD and GBP/USD on November 5 Technical Analysis

Higher Time Frames Yesterday, the monthly short-term trend resistance (1.0909) was tested. Despite the significant upward gap at the opening and the bulls' persistence, the outcome is recorded as a long upper shadow on the daily candle. It may take considerable effort from the bulls to overcome this monthly resistance (1.0909) and push into the bullish zone relative to the bearish monthly Ichimoku cloud (1.0943). The cluster of weekly levels (1.0876, 1.0863, 1.0844) and the daily short-term trend (1.0842) maintain a gravitational pull on the current development, providing some support for the bulls. For bears to assert their stance, they must break free from this zone and move significantly lower.

H4 H1 The pair is in a corrective zone on the lower time frames, staying above the weekly long-term trend (1.0858), giving bulls the main advantage. Today's upward targets within the day are the classic Pivot resistance levels (1.0908, 1.0939, 1.0963) and the target for breaking through the H4 cloud (1.0921, 1.0939). Breaking and reversing the trend (1.0858) would create conditions to shift the current balance of power. The downward targets within the day are the classic Pivot support levels (1.0853, 1.0829, 1.0798).

GBP/USD

Higher Time Frames The upward gap pushed the pair into the influence of two key levels. The bulls found support from the daily short-term trend (1.2942), preventing the gap from closing, while the bears relied on the weekly medium-term trend resistance (1.2971), which halted the bulls from achieving higher targets. Today's development still depends on these two levels; whoever breaks through the opposing level will likely dictate the direction.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: AUD/USD: What Does Trump's Victory Mean for the Australian Dollar?

Today, the AUD/USD pair dropped to a multi-month low amid a rally in the US dollar triggered by Trump's victory.

The sharp intraday decline of over 130 points was driven by strong demand for the US dollar. The USD index surged to a four-month high after exit polls from the US presidential election indicated that Republican candidate Donald Trump was leading the race. Additionally, Republicans are expected to secure a majority in the House of Representatives. In addition to these factors, Trump's presidency raises concerns about the introduction of new tariffs and a potential trade war with China, further pressuring the Australian dollar. Concerns about deficit spending and expectations of less aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts are driving US Treasury yields higher. This has strengthened the US dollar and added further pressure on the AUD/USD pair. However, the risk-on sentiment, as evidenced by the sharp rise in US stock futures, has led to some profit-taking on the US dollar. Furthermore, the hawkish stance of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and signs that China's large-scale stimulus measures are boosting business activity are limiting losses for the Australian dollar, prompting intraday short-covering in the AUD/USD pair. Still, there is no certainty that current spot prices can build momentum or that the attempted recovery will be seen as more than a selling opportunity, given the prevailing bullish sentiment for the US dollar. Therefore, it would be prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before confirming that the AUD/USD pair has formed a short-term bottom. This cautious outlook is supported by daily chart oscillators, which remain in negative territory, reinforcing the bearish forecast for now.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on November 7, 2024

Donald Trump achieved such a decisive victory that this time, the election avoided the scandals that marred the vote four years ago. Additionally, Republicans secured a majority in the Senate. While vote counting for the House of Representatives continues, they are also clearly leading there. It seems that the Republican Party will gain control of the White House and both chambers of Congress. This translates to higher tariffs, increased U.S. protectionism, and more aggressive demands for higher defense spending for Europe. Given the fragile state of the eurozone economy, these developments could exacerbate its problems. Moreover, the situation worsened because of the collapse of the ruling coalition in Germany, prompting Olaf Scholz to discuss early elections. Currently, opposition parties are highly skeptical of the European Union, and NATO may not achieve a majority in the Bundestag, but they are likely to strengthen their positions. The future government will have to take their stance into account. All these factors contribute to a lack of optimism for the euro, which will likely remain under pressure. For now, political factors are expected to outweigh economic ones.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on November 8, 2024

It can be confidently stated that the Federal Reserve's decision to lower its refinancing rate from 5.00% to 4.75% contributed to the weakening of the U.S. dollar. However, this was likely just a trigger for a rebound following the dollar's significant surge, driven by the results of the U.S. elections. The market was already anticipating such a decision from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). What carries more weight is the subsequent press conference, during which Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted at the possibility of maintaining interest rates at their current level in December. The prevailing expectation had been that rates would be reduced again this year, bringing them down to 4.50%. However, Powell's comments suggest that this outlook could change depending on labor market dynamics. While there are concerns about the labor market, the Fed may still need to continue easing its monetary policy. Nevertheless, the mere possibility of a pause in rate cuts was not previously considered. Thus, the outcomes of yesterday's meeting have added another factor supporting the dollar's long-term strength. In other words, yesterday's dollar's weakness should be considered a temporary rebound.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on November 11, 2024

The price has repeatedly pierced the 1.0724 support level on the daily chart but has failed to consolidate below it. A divergence has formed with the Marlin oscillator in its attempts to reach the target level of 1.0667

The price might rise above the 1.0777 level again, even if the upward momentum does not fully develop. Overall, the trend remains bearish, as price movement is occurring below the indicator lines, and Marlin is still undecided about crossing into positive territory.

On the four-hour chart, the price has successfully consolidated below 1.0724. Now, it remains to be seen whether the price will reclaim this level and attempt to rise toward 1.0777. If the price shows no such intention, the target support at 1.0667 will likely be reached. The next target would be 1.0636, the May 31, 2023 low.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on November 12, 2024

Despite the public holiday in the United States, the market remained active, and the euro continued to lose ground. The reason lies in the aftermath of the elections. While the outcomes of the presidential and Senate elections are clear, the distribution of seats in the House of Representatives remains uncertain. Yesterday, it was reported that the Republican Party is on the verge of securing a majority in both chambers of Congress. This scenario implies that nothing would prevent the Republicans from passing a new tariff law, primarily affecting the European Unionalready in a fragile state. Germany's economy seems to have narrowly avoided slipping into recession, though most economists believe it is inevitable and likely to begin next quarter. The introduction of higher tariffs by the U.S. would only exacerbate the European economy's issues. In other words, political factors have retaken center stage, and investors are closely monitoring developments in the House of Representatives. With the vote count nearing completion, clarity is expected in the coming days. Should the Republican Party secure victory, the euro will weaken further. Conversely, if the Democrats gain the majority, a significant rebound could occur, potentially leading to a correction. For now, macroeconomic data will play a secondary role. Moreover, with tomorrow's U.S. inflation report looming, the macroeconomic calendar remains relatively empty until then.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on November 13, 2024

Although the counting of votes for the House of Representatives is not yet complete, there is no longer any doubt that the Republican Party has achieved a resounding victory, securing complete control of both the executive branch, through the White House, and the legislative branch, with a majority in both chambers of Congress. Unsurprisingly, the euro continued to lose ground, as one of the first decisions likely to be made could involve raising tariffs, primarily targeting European manufacturers. Moreover, the trend toward further euro weakening could be exacerbated by U.S. inflation data. Judging by forecasts, the pace of consumer price growth is expected to accelerate from 2.4% to 2.6%. If this forecast is confirmed, the Federal Reserve will likely pause in its trajectory of further monetary policy easing.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on November 14, 2024

The British pound broke through the target support level of 1.2708 yesterday and shows no signs of stopping. It appears to have sufficient bearish potential to reach the nearest target, 1.2612, and the next one, 1.2510.

Yesterday's U.S. inflation data revealed an increase in the CPI from 2.4% y/y to 2.6% y/y, while the core CPI remained unchanged at 3.3% y/y. Market participants have raised the likelihood of a 0.25% rate cut by the Federal Reserve during its December and March meetings. However, as government bond yields showed little change by the end of the day after brief volatility, the pound continued its downward momentum.

No reversal elements are observed on the four-hour chart. The Marlin oscillator's current rise reflects a discharge of tension, preparing for further decline. The Marlin signal line aims to test the lower boundary of the descending green channel.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on November 15, 2024

The recent U.S. inflation data suggest a potential pause in the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting process, and Jerome Powell explicitly stated this. This comes alongside producer price data, which shows that growth accelerated from 1.9% to 2.4%. By year-end, discussions about a potential rate hike could resurface, as the data hint at the possibility of inflation rebounding. Additionally, industrial production decline in the Eurozone accelerated from -0.1% to -2.8%, resembling an outright collapse. However, the dollar failed to strengthen. The U.S. currency remained flat, partly due to its already massive overbought condition following its relentless and substantial rally since the presidential elections. More significantly, data on Chinese retail sales halted the dollar's rise, which showed that growth accelerated from 3.2% to 4.8%, surpassing the forecast of 4.0%. Concerns about a slowing Chinese economy have been one of the key drivers of the dollar's strength since late September. Signs of recovery in China's economic activity could serve as a basis for a potential reversal and the start of a weakening dollar trend. That said, the dollar is likely to continue its upward trajectory today. According to forecasts, U.S. industrial production growth is expected to accelerate from 1.7% to 1.9%, while industrial production decline should ease from -0.6% to -0.4%.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on November 18, 2024

The price has been correcting from the support area at 1.0483 since Friday and this morning. The 1.0590 resistance level has already been tested. As the Marlin oscillator has turned upward, the price may attempt to overcome this level and extend the correction toward 1.0636. Additionally, today's Eurozone trade balance data for September is expected to show growth from 4.6 billion euros to 7.9 billion euros.

On the H4 chart, the Marlin oscillator has entered positive territory, suggesting it aims to assist the price in breaking above the nearest resistance level.

The second target, 1.0636, will soon receive reinforcement from the MACD line, which converges toward it. From the 1.0636 level, we anticipate a price reversal into a new downward wave targeting the untested range of 1.04491.0483.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on November 20, 2024

The final inflation data for the Eurozone confirmed the preliminary estimate, showing an acceleration in consumer price growth from 1.7% to 2.0%, entirely in line with expectations. As a result, there was no market reaction, and the pair continued to consolidate near its previous levels. This trend will likely persist due to the lack of significant macroeconomic events on the calendar. Consolidation could even evolve into stagnation, as notable macroeconomic data is only scheduled for release on Friday. This includes the preliminary estimates of business activity indices. Unless something unexpected happens, the market will likely remain in a state of relative equilibrium for the rest of the week.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on November 21. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

Analysis of Trades and Trading Recommendations for the Japanese Yen The test of the 155.65 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving down from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair dropped to the target level of 155.16. The U.S. dollar remains in demand despite expectations of an interest rate hike in Japan. Today's speech by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda had a noticeable impact on financial markets, leading to a slight yen strengthening. Speaking at a press conference, Ueda emphasized the need to evaluate the current economic situation further and adapt monetary policy to global changes. His comments on a potential policy shift amid inflationary pressures sparked some interest, although he provided no definitive recommendations. According to economists, short-term expectations for interest rate hikes in Japan became more justified after the governor's speech, prompting a drop in the USD/JPY pair. However, this has not affected the broader upward trend. Considering the challenges facing Japan's economy during recovery, Ueda noted that a readiness to adjust rates could bolster confidence in the yen. Still, given the global dominance of the U.S. dollar against various risk assets, caution is advised when selling the pair. For intraday strategies, I will focus on Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Scenarios Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at the 155.04 entry level (green line on the chart) with a target of 155.66 (thicker green line on the chart). At 155.66, I plan to exit purchases and open sales in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30-35 pip reversal from the entry point. Growth in the pair is possible, but it is better to buy on corrections. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and beginning to rise. Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone and the pair tests 154.55 twice consecutively. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise to the opposite levels of 155.04 and 155.66 can be expected. Sell Scenarios Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY only after breaking below the 154.55 level (red line on the chart), which should lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 153.97, where I plan to exit sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20-25 pip reversal. Downward pressure on the pair may persist during the first half of the day. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and beginning to decline. Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone and the pair tests 155.04 consecutively. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline to the opposite levels of 154.55 and 153.97 can be expected.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on November 22, 2024

The British pound broke below the 1.2612 support level yesterday, but the Marlin oscillator did not confirm the move. Instead, it reversed and formed a weak convergence with the price.

If the price consolidates above 1.2612, the recent dip below support will be interpreted as a false breakout, serving as an additional signal for a potential upward reversal. The first target for a corrective rise is 1.2708. If the price moves to test the 1.2510 support, the reversal may be delayed for several days.

The price is moving below the balance and MACD lines on the four-hour chart. It has settled below the 1.2612 level, and the Marlin oscillator remains in negative territory. However, if the price consolidates above 1.2612, this scenario will become more plausible as the Marlin oscillator already shows signs of an intention to return to positive territory. Afterward, the price may attempt to overcome the MACD line at 1.2675. The probability of a reversal into a corrective movement is estimated at 65%.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on November 25, 2024

On Friday, the euro made a decisive move downward, testing the linear supports on the weekly chart. The Marlin oscillator on the weekly timeframe reached significant support at -0.0450, signaling a potential rebound into a correction.

The target level of 1.0350 was reached on the daily chart, indicated by a long lower shadow suggesting a potential reversal. The price may return to the target range of 1.05901.0636. Notably, the levels 1.0777 and 1.0882 align with the 50.0% and 61.8% retracement levels, further reinforcing their importance as potential points of attraction.

However, the expected recovery may not come easily. The opening gap adds complexity to this rise. If this gap is not closed today or tomorrow, the rally will unlikely extend beyond the first target range of 1.05901.0636.

On the 4-hour chart, the price is consolidating within the range of 1.04491.0483, waiting for stronger signals. Since the price failed to break through this range on the first attempt, stopping at the balance line resistance (red moving average), the gap may close according to the usual patternon the same day it was formed. From there, the euro will need renewed momentum to overcome the resistance range of 1.04491.0483 and the MACD line, which is rapidly approaching this zone.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on November 26, 2024

Despite some fluctuations, the market is essentially at a standstill. This pattern may persist until the FOMC meeting minutes are published this evening. A significant reaction is only likely if the minutes contain something new. However, this is highly improbable, as representatives of the U.S. Federal Reserve have repeatedly stated that the Federal Reserve System will pause further monetary policy easing. As such, the stagnation is expected to continue.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on November 27, 2024

Yesterday, the euro closed above 1.0483, with the opening and closing candles positioned higher. The Marlin oscillator supported the price's upward movement with its growth. This opens the way for the price to target the 1.0590-1.0636 range. If this range is surpassed, further growth into the 1.0724/77 range becomes possible.

The prolonged decline in gold and oil raises concerns, as these trends could pull the euro lower without allowing for a significant correction. The U.S. stock market is also nearing a technical turning point. If these risks materializeresulting in a drop in market valuationsthe euro could fall below 1.0350 without even testing the nearest resistance range.

On the H4 chart, the price is tangled between indicator lines and the 1.0449/83 range. The Marlin oscillator's signal line has formed a small triangle that could break in either direction. The euro is awaiting new data to determine its next move.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on November 28, 2024

The pound sustained its correction potential and yesterday approached the target level of 1.2708. The Marlin oscillator broke out of the descending channel upward but remains in negative territory for now.

A move above the nearest target level will also signal a shift into positive territory for the Marlin oscillator. A simultaneous breakout of the price and the oscillator would boost the pound's momentum for further growth. The next targets are 1.2773; the subsequent one is 1.2859. On the four-hour chart, the price has risen above both indicator lines.

The price may consolidate to solidify its breakout above the nearest resistance, potentially reaching the target level of 1.2773. The Marlin oscillator is slightly declining this morning, which could set the stage for renewed growth from a lower base. If the price falls below the MACD moving average at 1.2568, the trend will shift back to a medium-term decline.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on December 2, 2024

On Friday, the euro reached its target resistance at 1.0590. However, during the Asian session, it erased Friday's gains and dropped to Thursday's low. The Marlin oscillator's signal line turned downward from the neutral zero line. This indicates that the correction from 1.0350 is likely complete, and the price is now heading towards the target range of 1.0449/83. A breakout below this range would open the path to the next target at 1.0350.

Additionally, today's data on business activity in the Eurozone and the US supports dollar strengthening. The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI for November is expected to weaken from 46.0 to 45.2, while the US Manufacturing PMI is forecasted to rise from 48.5 to 48.8. The ISM Manufacturing Index is also expected to improve from 46.5 to 47.7.

On the H4 chart, the price and oscillator have formed a divergence. Marlin is already in bearish territory, signaling downward momentum. The 1.0449/83 range coincides with the MACD line, making this zone strategically significant. A break below it would pave the way for new targets below 1.0350, with 1.0250 as the next key level.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: How to Trade the GBP/USD Pair on December 3? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

On Monday, the GBP/USD pair also traded downward from the market opening. There were no clear reasons for the British currency to fall overnight, leading us to believe that the market has shown the direction it intends to take this week. Later, the U.S. released the ISM Manufacturing PMI, which showed stronger growth than expected. The accompanying S&P Business Activity Index also surpassed market expectations. As a result, during the U.S. trading session, the dollar had solid grounds for growth. Considering the overall technical and fundamental picture, it becomes evident that the pound sterling is likely to continue its decline in nearly any scenario. The only question is how long the corrective phase will last. As is well known, corrections can be quite prolonged, but this does not imply a significant rise in the pair.

Three good trading signals were formed on the 5-minute TF on Monday. First, the price bounced from the area of 1.2680-1.2685, then overcame this area, and finally bounced (with a small error) from the level of 1.2613. The first signal can be false, but the price moved 20 pips in the desired direction, allowing the trade to close at breakeven with a Stop Loss. The second and third signals yielded profits for novice traders. Trading Strategy for Tuesday: The GBP/USD pair continues to show a downward bias on the hourly timeframe. We fully support the pound's decline in the medium term as we believe this is the only logical outcome. The pound sterling remains in a corrective phase, which could take some time. However, it's important to remember that the current rise in the British currency is driven purely by technical factors. On Tuesday, novice traders can anticipate a new decline in the British pound, given that the 1.26801.2685 area has already been broken. On the 5-minute TF, you can now trade at 1.2387, 1.2445, 1.2502-1.2508, 1.2547, 1.2633, 1.2680-1.2685, 1.2754, 1.2791-1.2798, 1.2848-1.2860, 1.2913, 1.2980-1.2993. The only significant event on Tuesday is the JOLTs report on job openings in the U.S. However, this report is only moderately important, as it is published with a two-month lag.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on December 4, 2024

Yesterday's corrective growth was minimal, with the white candlestick amounting to 12 pips. The overall downward trend, driven by the reversal of both the price and the oscillator from their resistance levels, looks more solid. The current task for the bears is to consolidate within the 1.0449/83 range, which would pave the way for a move toward the 1.0350 target.

Economic data from Europe and the U.S. will influence this scenario. The Eurozone Services PMI for November is expected to decline from 51.6 to 49.2, while the U.S. PMI is forecasted to rise from 55.0 to 57.0. However, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index may edge down slightly from 56.0 to 55.5, but this is offset by an anticipated 0.3% growth in industrial orders.

Yesterday, the price returned below the balance line on the four-hour chart, coinciding with the Marlin oscillator's signal line turning downward from the zero line. The intent to move into the 1.0449/83 range is clear, but the MACD line within this range could hinder further bearish progress.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for USD/JPY on December 5, 2024

Bank of Japan representatives are increasingly expressing concerns about a rate hike ahead of their December 19 meeting (Nakamura), traditionally citing a "broader range of data."

Given the Bank of Japan's caution about sudden market changes and its intention to provide prior notice to investors regarding its actions, the rate may remain unchanged at this meeting. If the price consolidates above the 150.83 level, further growth to 153.60 becomes likely, with the pair potentially reaching this level before the Federal Reserve meeting on December 18.

On the 4-hour chart, growth has only begun following a double divergence with the Marlin oscillator when the price approached the target range of 148.18/50. The initial impulse has been achieved, but the price needs to consolidate above the MACD line at the 151.24 mark, corresponding to yesterday's high.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on December 6, 2024

On Thursday, the euro gained 77 pips, driven by U.S. data from Challenger showing a rise in job cuts from 55,597 in October to 57,727 in November. Adding to the pessimism, initial jobless claims released an hour later rose to 224k from 215k the previous week. What does this fundamental-technical pattern suggest? Major players may be preparing to buy the euro, even in response to neutral U.S. labor data released today. Today's forecasts offer room for interpretation. November nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are expected to show an increase of 202k, but unemployment is also projected to rise from 4.1% to 4.2%. Even minor deviations could be framed as "weak."

The technical outlook suggests the price aims to break above the 1.0598 resistance level, supported by the leading Marlin oscillator, which holds firmly in bullish territory. The first target for growth is the resistance at 1.0667, where the price will face the balance line. Success here could allow the euro to continue its ascent into the 1.0762/77 target range, a support zone from October 2329. (Target levels have been slightly adjusted since the last review).

A bearish scenario would materialize only if the price falls below 1.0461, negating the bullish plan. The price consolidates between the balance line and the 1.0598 target level. The Marlin oscillator is extending its growth in positive territory. The next move will largely depend on today's U.S. labor market data.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on December 9, 2024

Friday's U.S. employment data delivered mixed results, leading to dollar weakness. This weakness aligned with gains in the stock market (as previously anticipated). However, by the end of the day, investors decided to lock in short-term profits due to increased uncertainty surrounding the upcoming meetings of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. Mary Daly, President of the San Francisco Fed, unexpectedly stated that if inflation does not continue to decline, the Fed might raise rates. We interpret this as a signal of a potential rate hold on December 18 or a 0.25% rate cut accompanied by a pause announcement for January and March. Either outcome could favor the dollar. Market sentiment regarding the ECB's monetary policy remains more pessimistic. Europe faces challenges like a potential trade war with Trump, deepening economic contraction, and internal political issues, including debt crises in Italy, Spain, and Greece. Consequently, even if the ECB cuts rates on December 12, the market response may be muted.

The euro remains within a range of uncertainty between 1.0461 and 1.0598. The upper boundary could extend to 1.0667, as the price needs to break above the daily balance line, which is capping upward movement. The Marlin Oscillator has established itself in the growth zone. However, given Friday's profit-taking, the market may need time to accumulate positions before breaking above the 1.0598 resistance. Moving above this level would pave the way toward 1.0667 and reach the strategic target of 1.07621.0777. Despite significant resistance at 1.0598, the euro retains its upward potential. A bearish shift would require a breakdown below the 1.0461 support level.

On the H4 chart, the Marlin Oscillator's signal line has reached zero-line support, suggesting a potential minor reversal and subsequent sideways movement under the 1.0598 resistance. If the price attempts to breach 1.0461, the MACD at 1.0505 will get in its way, potentially leading to a false breakout. In conclusion, the euro continues to drift freely within the 1.04611.0598 range, awaiting a decisive move.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on December 10, 2024

The main event influencing the currency market on Monday was the decline in the U.S. stock market. The S&P 500 index fell by 0.61% after hitting a historic high on Friday. The reversal occurred at strong technical resistance, supported by other signs of a trend shift. It is possible that the "Trump Rally" has ended, with investors moving away from risk. This is further evidenced by an 11.12% increase in the S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX). If the stock market decline continues, it may substantially impact the euro more than the nearly priced-in European Central Bank rate cut. Even if the ECB decides not to lower rates, the euro may lack the strength for significant growth. For more details, see the article "The U.S. Stock Market Ends the "Trump Rally."'

Currently, the euro is retreating from the upper boundary of the expected range, 1.04611.0598. The euro's weakness is already evident, as the price refrained from attempting to breach 1.0598 yesterday. The Marlin oscillator aligns near the neutral line, positioning itself to react to any ECB scenario when the decision is announced. The bears are gradually gaining the upper hand.

The four-hour chart shows that the price is pressing below the balance line for support. The Marlin oscillator has shifted into bearish territory. The MACD line supports the price at 1.0514, a neutral point within the overall range of 1.04611.0598. A drop below this level would enable the price to approach the ECB announcement near the support at 1.0461 preemptively and more aggressively.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on December 12, 2024

After yesterday's moderate decline (an attempt to test the 1.2708 support), the pound sterling is again pressing against the resistance levels of the balance indicator line and the MA34. The Marlin oscillator is moving sideways but trending upward. The price signals its intent to target the 1.2906 level, where it may encounter the MACD line on the daily chart.

If the euro fails to exhibit strong movement following today's European Central Bank meeting, the pound will likely break above current resistance levels and enter the 1.2816/47 range. However, if this plan does not materialize, a move below 1.2708 could lead the pair to test the 1.2616 level, marking the December 2 low.

On the 4-hour chart, yesterday's brief move of the Marlin oscillator into negative territory appears to have been a false signal, as it has since returned to the growth zone this morning. The balance line firmly supports the price, while the stronger MACD line (blue) lies just below. The trend remains upward, with the key question being whether the price can break through the daily resistance levels. A break below 1.2708 on the H4 chart would indicate that the pound has chosen a downward trajectory.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for USD/JPY on December 13, 2024

The dollar successfully resists all attempts to push it below key technical levels (150.83, 152.16) in its battle against the yen. This resilience is partly due to the dollar's overall strengthening in the market and the time remaining before the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting on December 19.

However, caution is warranted regarding the pair's current growth trajectory. After the price surpasses the intermediate resistance level of 152.16, the first target is 153.60. This level gains additional support from the balance line. At the same time, the Marlin oscillator could reach the boundary of its growth zone as the price approaches this level, potentially reversing from there. If the price manages to break through 153.60, the next intermediate level at 154.72 (the November 7 peak) comes into play. A reversal could occur from this point, forming a false breakout above 153.60. This move may coincide with the Bank of Japan meeting.

On the H4 chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator has turned upward from the lower boundary of its extended consolidation range. Indicator lines also point towards growth, and the price has consolidated above the 152.16 level. The target at 153.60 is now open.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on December 16, 2024

On Friday, the euro rebounded from the technical support level at 1.0461, closing the day with a 37-pip gain. During today's Pacific session, the pair continues its upward movement..

The Marlin oscillator has returned to the growth zone, which could indicate that the previous downward move (highlighted by the gray rectangle) was a false dip. Even if a breakout above doesn't occur (target at 1.0667), the bullish target of 1.0598 has been established. The euro will likely remain within the 1.04611.0598 range until the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday.

On the H4 chart, the Marlin oscillator has also shifted into the growing trend zone. If the price breaks above the MACD line resistance at 1.0538, the 1.0598 level will become the active target.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for December 17, 2024

The euro continues its slow technical upward movement within the trading range of 1.04611.0598, awaiting the Federal Reserve's rate decision. The Marlin oscillator has firmly entered positive territory, suggesting that the single currency's upward movement may continue today.

However, if the price reverses following the Fed meeting, it does not necessarily have to reach the 1.0598 resistance level, as the overall trend remains bearish. The balance line (red moving average) may act as an insurmountable obstacle, similar to what occurred on December 6 (as indicated by the arrow).

On the 4-hour chart, the price is rising below the MACD line (1.0543). Consolidation above 1.0543 will increase the probability of testing 1.0598. The price appears to be narrowing its consolidation range, approximately 1.04611.0543.

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IFX bella · Senior Member

Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD Forecast for December 18, 2024

On Tuesday, the British pound rose by 27 pips, closing the day below the 1.2708 resistance level after briefly breaching it during the session. Today, the pound starts slightly weakening as the balance line reinforces the reached level. Today's focus will be on the Federal Reserve's decision to lower rates by 0.25%, with consideration for the Bank of England's expected decision to maintain rates tomorrow.

From a purely technical standpoint, the pound has all the conditions for a potential move into the 1.2816/47 range, even as a false breakout against the market trend, with a subsequent return below the 1.2616 level if the market adopts a downward direction. However, the current sentiment for the pound appears slightly bearish, as the Marlin oscillator hints at a reversal.

On the H4 chart, the price did not manage to break above the balance line resistance. There was no consolidation above the 1.2708 level. Marlin is moving in tandem with the price. Without breaking the reversal setup, the price may test the MACD line resistance at 1.2750. A break above the MACD line would open the target range of 1.2816/47.

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