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Post Info TOPIC: Daily Market Analysis by ForexMart


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Daily Market Analysis by ForexMart


USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: October 10, 2016

The JPY went higher in relation to the USD after a long losing streak in nine trading sessions after the release of a somewhat negative US Non-Farm Payrolls report disappointed investors and traders. The USD/JPY pair traded at 102.906, decreasing by -1.00% or 1.042 points. 

The US Non-Farm Payrolls report came out at 156,000, way below the expected 177,000 prediction for the NFP in September. Unemployment rates also increased by 5.0% from the previous data release of 4.9%. However, the data for the Average Hourly Earnings increased from 0.1% to 0.2%, with limited trader reactions since the data met its previous expectations. 

Investors are now speculating that the disappointment in the US payrolls report makes it impossible for a Fed rate hike in November, but is still strong enough for an interest rate hike in December. Market buyers were also compelled to book their profits due to a slight drop in US Treasury Futures data. 

The decrease in the USD/JPY came as a surprise to some investors since the economic data release, although on the negative side, is still strong enough to maintain speculations for an interest rate hike before 2016 ends. The pair is seen to further weaken since Monday is a bank holiday, and the absence of major market players could cause the pair to lose some of its current trading value.

 

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NZD/USD Technical Analysis: October 10, 2016

The NZD/USD pair had unchanged rates during the last session at 0.7168 points with a possibility of daily lows at 0.7149 points. The NZD/USD is expected to slow down in spite of a diminishing trade activity surrounding the USD, and the negative impact of lowered oil prices to the NZD. 

The financial market in general has also moved towards the sidelines as different market players are now closely monitoring the second US presidential debate. The US market holiday is also expected to further cause stagnation in this particular currency pair. 

Investors are now awaiting a series of statements to be released by the Federal Reserve, as well as Chinese trading data and CPI data which are all due within this week. These data are all expected to have an impact on the NZD/USD pair.
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The resistance levels for the NZD/USD is currently at 0.7207 at the 100-DMA, with a significant possibility of a gain extension at 0.7521 at the 20-DMA. From there, the pair could possibly extend its range at 0.7275 at the 50-DMA. On the other hand, the pairs current support levels is located at its two-month low of 0.7110, with a possibility of lowering at 0.7084 and 0.7064 points.

 

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GBP/USD Technical Analysis: October 10, 2016

The GBP/USD pair saw little activity during the last trading session and consolidated at 1.2430 points following last weeks sudden crash has caused markets to speculate whether the sterling pound has based here or otherwise. 

The GBP/USD decreased from 1.2614 points to lows at 14 cents lower while the GBP has incurred increased volatility after the hard Brexit announcement from UK Prime Minister Theresa May. However, the sterling pounds value might become useful for the Bank of England. 

For the pairs technical indicators, the GBP/USDs resistance is at 1.2397, only a few points shy of its high of 1.3056, with considerations that the market will be directly offered below. Meanwhile, analysts are saying that the currency pairs technical bearings have lost some of its accuracy due to the pounds recent sharp decline, but the risk is projected to remain at the downside despite the negativity surrounding the sterling pound. 

The pairs technical indicators maintained their bearish stance, with RSI indicators headed towards 19 points. On the other hand, selling interest levels are placed at 1.2500, with a possible recovery of the pair going up the 1.2620 trading range. 

The GBP/USD pair saw little activity during the last trading session and consolidated at 1.2430 points following last weeks sudden crash has caused markets to speculate whether the sterling pound has based here or otherwise. 

The GBP/USD decreased from 1.2614 points to lows at 14 cents lower while the GBP has incurred increased volatility after the hard Brexit announcement from UK Prime Minister Theresa May. However, the sterling pounds value might become useful for the Bank of England. 

 

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-- Edited by AppleFXMart on Monday 10th of October 2016 07:55:57 AM

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AUD/USD Technical Analysis: October 10, 2016

The U.S. labor market is on a low these past weeks which is favorable for the AUD/USD pair as it helps to its recovery from two-week lows. The price activity remains Bearish with a formidable support at 0.7550 after a 4 day decline. The Consolidation range is between 0.7550 and 0.7590. 

Its 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are moving in downtrend with 200 EMAs came to a halt after it tried to break higher. The MACD implies the seller's position to weaken as it continue to grow while its RSI is within the bounds of oversold area.

Such trend continues and breaks at 0.7600 will further extend its recovery to 0.7650. The next target for the sellers stay at 0.7540 support level.

 

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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 10, 2016

The outset of the pair fluctuated under the pressured area due to the remarks made by UK PM May that also laid out the itinerary of the EU exit process and made some indication regarding a tough negotiations and process.

The sterling and greenbacks sustained a weak position and drove to the lowest level of Brexit at 1.2790 wherein the market was very apprehensive during that time. Furthermore, a tension were formed as the GBPUSD dropped 800 pips within 5 minutes over the trading hours. Nobody knows the main reason that proceeded for a declivity accompanied with major losses accrued by bullish investors.

After the damage that occurred, the pound and dollar were able to compensate its deficit on Friday but the level of uncertainty or risk that the pair demonstrated indicated that it does not hold a stable conditions at present. It is recommended for the traders to wait more at least for two day so that it is much secured in dealing with this two currencies. The support is nearby the 1.2200 and resistance is spotted at 1.2500. Be more cautious in trading using pound and greens, it is much advisable to set aside this first.

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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: October 10, 2016

During the entire week the USD CAD remained in the support level of 1.3080 while the resistance settled at 1.3280. The pair reached the endpoint at an extreme range finished over the 1.3296 region and it is assumed that the pair seems a bullish run but the outset still unidentified.

Aside from the FOMC meeting on US, major news are awaited by the Canadian region. It is important to note that there is an upcoming break at the top of the range plunged at 1.3280. Moreover, we are looking forward for a clear break of resistance on Monday though still needs some ratification, and if it take place then it would likely indicate a pair retesting by which traders and investors should be ready about. While waiting for the rapid price decline, it has greater chance to have more period of consolidation over the given range which may carried throughout a few more days.

 

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USD/CAD Technical Analysis: OCtober 10, 2016

The pair USD/CAD leaped to 150 points and closed at 1.3283 last week. The Canadian labor market advanced last August that rendered 67.2 thousand jobs. However its losses overshadowed the advantages with disappointments from the NFP results since wage growth and short of jobs in the data. 

The pair started the week at 1.3130 followed by a low in 1.3067 level. It bounced to high of 1.3313 and continues to move upward with the Resistance sustained at 1.3353. It closed at 1.3283 level. 

Overall, the trend remains Bullish despite growth in oil prices and strong job report. The December rate hike is still pending with USD advances in a positive outlook.

 

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GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: October 10, 2016

The pair GBP/JPY is being under pressure by standing on a negative trend line. There is not much activity for RSI to move on an upward direction while the 50-EMA is higher than 20-EMA . Pound continues to weaken then feel by 10% during early Asian trading which is beneficial for stock trading. The FTSE 100 gained by 0.6% to 7,044 which is 1% near to record close last year.

The resistance level is at 131.00 to 133.25 and if it sustains at 130.00 then a it could drop at 126 handle. The support level is at 126 up to 123 handle.
The price activity is below its pivot point and if this continues, the trading range remains low. Short positions target is at 126.00. This could go lower at 124.40 when a break below target happens. The pivot point is at 130 level. However, if the trend goes the other way, and bounces back, it will go higher than the pivot point. Therefore, it is suggested to go for the long position with target at 133.00 followed by 132.30 level.
 
 

 

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GBP/USD Technical Analysis: October 11, 2016

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: October 11, 2016

The GBP/USD pair dropped from its peak of 1.2440 points and has now recorded a new low during the New York trading session. The pair is now trading within the 1.2360 range and its slight recovery during the earlier part of the London session caused the GBP/USD to retain its downward direction in the middle of little market volatility. 

The direction of the currency pair was driven by the movement of the USD due to lack of any relevant economic data released during the last trading session. The USD movement has recently been benefitting from an ease in risk aversion following the results of the US Presidential Debate. On the other hand, the sterling pound is experiencing downward pressures due to post-Brexit uncertainties, causing the GBP to decrease further during the last trading session.

The 4-hour chart for the currency pair shows that the GBP/USD is starting to bounce back from Fridays sudden decline even though technical indicators are still a long way from fully recovering. The 20-SMA has also decreased further and is now at 1.2560. The pair reached 1.2476 points, its highest point reached after its most recent decline. The GBP/USD must go beyond this range and reach up to 1.2520 and 1.2600 in case the USD succumbs to selling pressure.

 

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AUD/USD Technical Analysis: October 11, 2016

The AUD/USD pairs 50-MA level for the recent trading session reached the 0.7608 trading range, with trades now at 0.7590 in spite of the widening of the 10-year yield spread for AU-US. High yielders further reaped benefits during the second quarter of yields in the international market. The 10-year yields for Australia increased by 7 bps while the 10-year US yields increased by 3 bps. 

Analysts are stating these higher yields could have negative impacts on all aspects of the risk spectrum since this could lead to a drop in high-yielding currencies such as the NZD. 

Should the AUD/USD recover, then the bid tone recovery could go up into the resistance level of 0.7608 for the 50-DMA and could possibly go further up to 0.7626 for the 10-DMA. However, if the previous support levels of 0.7580 would be reached by the pair, then this could lead to a possible drop to 0.7553, with sell-offs further extending to 0.7526 which is the 100-DMA level for the GBP/USD pair.
 
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NZD/USD Technical Analysis: October 11, 2016

The NZD/USD weakened during the last trading session after the USD regained some of its lost value, with the demand now testing within the 0.71 range. The USD remained sturdy throughout the Asian trading session due to the US treasury yields increase caused by rising oil prices. This also heightened the possibility of an interest rate hike this coming December, along with an exhaustion on the part of central banks and a deepening of the yield curve on the international market. 

The currency pair is now dependent on the market sentiment, particularly now that the Reserve Bank of New Zealands Assistant Governor is set to deliver a statement with regards to the countrys low inflation rates. 

Since the NZD/USD is already trading lower than the 50-DMA and 100-DMA levels, an acceptance rate lower than 0.71 might have a significant impact on the bulls. Should the currency pair break through the support levels of 0.7049, then this could possibly reveal the 0.70 handle. On the other hand, an increase from Fridays low of 0.7110 might lead to a steeper retracement level to 0.7155 for the 100-DMA and 0.7204 for the 10-DMA.
 
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4 EUR/USD Technical Analysis: October 11, 2016

The markets of Canada, Japan and United States were consolidated. The greenbacks have improved their position right after Hillary Clinton obtained the victory on the second Presidential debate against Donald Trump because Trumps respective image were castigated after the news broke regarding his negative treatment over a particular women as seen in the leaked video.

 

Once again the single euro currency hit the pressured zone. After the pair reach the 1.1200 region there is a sudden turning point and promptly descended to the 1.1150 level.

As of the moment, the euro and greens are currently moving in downward slope and arriving to a much lower price direction. Moving averages 50, 100 and 200 strived to keep the 1.1200 level.

There is a toggling in prices since its prices were switching to an upper and lower movements as featured in the 4-hour chart. Resistance laid over in the 1.1200 level, support possessed the region 1.150.

MACD histogram had tailed off which means that the sellers strength became more effective. RSI draw near the negative positions.

 

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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: October 11,2016

The greenbacks and loonies unexpectedly maneuver to a different direction. The USD completely outperform other instruments including the CAD which also lose its stability. Therefore, the pair suffered from a downfall from its weekly highs and plunged in the 1.3250 and the support befall at 1.3180. 

Regardless of a positive report of the employmentin Canada last Friday, the fall off still occurred due to the notice made by Iraq about the oil price hike and limited petroleum production. However, it is much of undisputed origin that this recession is caused by the consolidation period in line with the outset of an uptrend. According to previous forecasts, there will be an indecision phase for the pair and executed a clean break through within the 1.3280 and at 1.2800 low hence signalling another direction of the trend. The pair currently covers the region 1.3198 and the trend pause is predicted to resume further.

No new major reports were made from either countries, US or Canada thats why this trading levels remains together with the upsurge of the prices in crude oil. This event had maintained its support for a medium and long term opportunities.
 
 

 

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6 USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: October 11,2016

The Fed is planning to have a cost increase this year which cause the greenbacks to establish a much stronger condition. The pair generated a bullish trend and pose a buy mode yesterday. There is a negative notion and jumped to the 102.90 region then proceeded to a more advanced status. The USDJPY retrieve its entire losses during the EU sessions. 

The price channel is in the middle period showing an upward movement as manifested in the 4-hour chart. The moving averages seems bullish while the 50-EMA had drawn out its limit as shown in the same time horizons.
MACD initiated an opposite direction seen in the hourly chart. The histogram firmly developed and signaled for the strength of the buyers. RSI approached the overvalued area.

 

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7 USD/CAD Technical Analysis: October 11, 2016

A short topping pattern was formed as the support from 1.3160 has been breached to 1.3312 with the 1.2460 level as the Consolidation pattern. It is expected for a retracement from 1.4689 then 1.2460 to 1.3311 Resistance zone. The intraday bias is going downward to 1.2999 support level.

A reversal is expected once there is a break that is target near the 1.2763 support level. If the break has been prolonged at 1.3311, this will cause it to bounce to 1.2640 with the target of 1.3838 at Fibonacci level.

The medium topping pattern seen at 1.4689 signals a Correction pattern. This could go lower and further decline will become a retracement for 50% at 0.9406 to 1.4689 up to 1.2048 level. This is close to 1.1919 medium term support. A strong support level would cause the trend to regain. However, if a break holds at 38.2%, there will be a retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2460 at 1.3311 make way for a reversal. The next target will be at 1.3838 with 61.8% retracement.

 

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8 USD/CHF Technical Analysis: October 11, 2016

The USD increase by 0.24% against CHF and closed at 0.9802 for the past 24 hours, 

Swiss Unemployment rate is known to be periodic but the September data sustained at 3.3% while the market expected it to rise at 3.4% instead.
The pair USD/CHF is being traded at 0.9833 in the Asian session at GMT 0300. The USD is elevated by 0.32% against CHF more than the price closed yesterday.

The target support is at 0.9791 down to 0.9749 level. The resistance is at 0.9858 and could go higher to 0.9883 level. The pairs trading activity has move beyond 20 Hr and 50Hr Moving Averages.
 
 

 

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EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: October 11, 2016

The price activity for today stays at neutral state. Once a break of 116.36 would bounce to 109.20 with a target at 100% prediction of 109.20 to 118.45 starting at 112.07 to 121.32 levels. There is a possibility of topping near the 121.36 at Fibonacci level. However, if it fell below the 114.35 minor support, it will go back to its neutral state.

The medium term bottom is at 109.20 level and this could extend once rebounded but reversal is not as strong for now. However, if it rallied a strong resistance after a 38.2% retracement of 141.04 to 109.20 at 121.36 to hold in check the trend on the first try. A break of 112.07 will continue the downward direction from 149.76 from a 76.4% retracement of 94.11 to 149.76 at 107.24.

 

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1 NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 12, 2016

 

The NZDUSD pair produced six more points subsequent to the releasing of  data in the morning of the trading session. The NZD made a breakthrough seeing that the retail sales of Ecards outstrip its total sales for the previous months. The Fed policymakers made a proposal regarding the repression of the interest hike.Thereupon, the kiwi escalated approaching to its highest level.

 

Although the FOMC board of governors consider the US economic status is in good condition to grant a rate increase, they still come to a decision of suspending first the upsurge because the  evaluation of the remaining determinants and evidences continues.

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2 USD/CAD Technical Analysis: October 12, 2016

Undeterred by the softening of the petroleum prices, the loonies and greenbacks persist on opening over a higher position. The market sentiment revealed a positive tone since Tuesday. The USD/CAD expanded its timeframe for a short-term upward trajectory after its recovery from the steep decline that took place last Monday.

The dollar plunged into the 100-EMA as its alternative support price as shown in the 4-hour chart. While the pair directed an ascending position, it made a breakthrough in the 50-EMA and took a separate route apart from the moving averages within the same chart. Moreover, the said indicators preserve a bullish trend. Resistance stand at 1.3300 region while support keep going with the 1.3200 level.

MACD manifested a moment of depreciation and reduce the buyers strength. RSI secured a neutral position. It is speculated that the pair would reach 1.3300 level of resistance for the next day.

 

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3 GBP/USD Technical Analysis: October 12, 2016

Concerns regarding hard-Brexit last Tuesday made the pound to stay behind the pressured area. The tone of the market against GBP established negative sentiment yesterday. The pair also experienced a downswing for two consecutive days. The price progresses from 1.2200 to 1.2300 regions. 

The conjecture loss of the sterling is 0.66% upon the ongoing negotiations. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs extended its recession period. Resistance were able to get the 1.2400 level, support entered the 1.2300 region.

MACD stick around same level as of yesterday which bolsters the sellers strength. The RSI oscillator indicator is seen in the negative area. The pair is assumed to work in the downtrend position when it reach the lower level of 1.2300

 

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NZD/USD Technical Analysis: October 12, 2016

The pair geared its focus to the January to May trendline after a break at .7204 with 8/29 low. It declined to .7020 level and continues downtrend would risk its 200-EMA and low at .6951 which is close to the target head and shoulder of short term course. A strong resistance at .7204 put an end to a Bearish trend.

 

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AUD/USD Technical Analysis: October 12, 2016

The pair AUD/USD is on a risk of breakout after the support close to .7380 bounced back to its major resistance. This was higher than the October and December highs last 2015 as well as the 200 EMA. If the price stayed at .7442 to sustain the positive short-term outlook. Support with Retracement levels are at .7544 and .7575 which was reached yesterday.

 

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USD/JPY Technical Analysis: October 12, 2016

The price activity yesterday was strongly going upwards. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs move uptrend. It continues to strives to breach the resistance level at 104.00 to 104.30. The support level holds at 103.50.

The MACD is in the positive zone while the histogram declined. This implies the weakening of buyers pushing RSI oscillator to upper bounds. 

The supply outbalances the demand that puts pressure to buyers. Hence, there is a possibility for a price reversal to 103.00 level as the market lacks motivation. If it stays at 104.00 level, it is most likely for the prices to move down. On the other hand, the dollar gets stronger because of the awaited Fed rate hike.

 

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USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: October 12, 2016

The USD/JPY pair closed the last trading session at 103.516 points during the last trading session, dropping by -0.08% or 0.085 after investors flocked to the safe haven currency due to a break in crude oil and stock prices, wiping out the currency pairs gains during the earlier part of the trading session. 

The USD was backed by support from statements that the 10-year yields for the US were at its highest levels in over four months. Due to positive interest rate differentials, the dollar consistently appreciated against the JPY during the past eleven trading sessions, however, the carry trade exhibit last Tuesday proved to be crucial for the US dollar. 

Analysts are saying that this particular scenario might be could possibly occur again on Wednesdays trading session due to the impending release of the Federal Reserves meeting minutes. These minutes will be of use to market players in order for them to gauge the overall sentiment of Fed officials with regards to the expected interest rate hike in December. 

Although the meeting minutes from the Fed usually only cause little volatility in the market, analysts are saying that this particular report might become an exception, especially since the USD/JPY is expected to have a reaction to Treasury yields movement and might reflect its price action in the previous trading session.

 

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14718674_199672073792294_138489238474730EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: October 12, 2016 The EUR/JPY pair was able to retain its support on the 50-DMA and expected to incur additional losses in the light of an expected increase in the USD/JPY pair. The cross-currency pair is now at 114.40 points, going above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 114.09 points. The EUR/JPY dropped yesterday to 114.01 points after constant rejection in the 100-DMA in the past week. All eyes are on Bank of Japan as BoJ Governor Kuroda is slated to make a speech today. Meanwhile, European industrial production data is also expected to be released today. But the major announcement for today will be likely coming from the Federal Reserves Esther George and William Dudley, who is expected to announce that there is a huge possibility for an interest rate hike in December. For the cross-currency pairs technical indicators, the pairs break through at 114.09 could possibly lead to a low of 112.79, which could then lead to a leveling of 112.00. On the other hand, an increase over the 10-DMA of 144.76 could cause another break at the 5-DMA of 115.05, which could ultimately lead to a confluence of 115.60.



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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: October 12, 2016

The EUR/USD pair was able to extend the sell-off during the Asian trading session and is now targeting the monthly pivot support at 1.1024 points. The decrease in the value of the EUR/USD might be attributed to the sudden controversial drop of the EUR/GBP pair, which shook the whole market in general. The strengthening of the USD has also added pressure on the pair, particularly now that the US dollar is now transacting against risky currencies such as the NZD and AUD.

On the other hand, the bearish break through of the pair at the 1.11 range again served as a level support for the pair, a function well-used since August. The EUR/USD pair experienced a small recovery after increasing up to 1.1068 before weakening further to 1.1042 points.

 

The daily chart for the currency pair shows the trend line going around the 1.1042 range. A break below this particular range could cause a test of the 1.10 range, and might lead to a weakening of up to 1.0911. On the higher side, if the pair goes over its daily high of 1.1068, then this could lead to the pair reaching the 5-DMA of 1.1115 and possibly the 200-DMA of 1.1169.



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1 USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: October 13, 2016

In the outset of the US session, the greenbacks heightened and together with the loonies attained the resistance region at 1.3280 despite of the news regarding the undermined the spot price of the oil. The USD CAD remained unaffected even though the FOMC minutes were not released yet. The pair attempted to make a breakthrough over the upper extreme of 1.3290 though it fall short once again and finally settled around 1.3282

Consolidation is still anticipated for a few more days since there is no driving force present that lead the currencies to the level of resistance.

When the fundamentals realized that the issue regarding petroleum prices negatively influence the economy of Canada then it would finally be visible. As a result, there is a possible price modification that would elevate to the 1.3280 resistance, at the same time obtaining the next spot at 1.35 and 1.4000.

 

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2 GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 13, 2016

The pound and greens remain in an uncertain period, the price became affected due to the current events plus some fundamental determinants including the general strength performed by the USD and the risks associated with Brexit, these made the pair to cut loose its gains from the 1.2325 high to 1.2300 region.

The subject matter have its way until the EU session which also added to the afflicted factors is the UK Parliament discussion regarding the Brexit activities. This occurrence decreased the pair into 1.2200. Following the statement from FOMC during the US conference because there are three protesters who insisted for a quick hyperinflation. This event is defined to be hawkish as per the market and this made the USD to gain more strength but the GBPUSD approached a lower position at 1.2100. 

This morning a major news aided the pound and greens to immediately recuperate due to a weak trades from the Chinese investors, seeing the two to achieve 1.2188 region.
Mainly, GBP/USD is surrounded by news risks considering the fact that its has failing background which cause it to a complicated method in acquiring confident trades. 
As a result, it is recommended to steer clear of sterling and dollar until it obtain a well-established regions.

 

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3 AUD/USD Technical Analysis: October 13, 2016

The Aussie further improved its strength after the price of petroleum products had increased also. Consequent on the testing of its lowest low last 20th of September, the AUDUSD made a sudden upturn in the midst of Asian session held on Wednesday. Last Tuesday, the commodity currency easily regains its previous deficit. Seeing the bullish spike procured a brief momentum only, it made the AUD and USD to stand in a constrained area. While in the beginning of the NY meeting the price deal with value depreciation.

The moving averages shore up over the upward momentum while it persist to slowed down and manifested a bearish slope. The 50-EMA intervenes the 100 and 200-EMAs then proceeded to a lower position. Resistance step in the 0.7600 level, support captured the 0.7540 region. MACD had softened but uphold strength for the sellers then ended up in the negative zone. The RSI oscillator grow less. The Australian and U.S dollar remained to be bearish.

 

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4 GBP/USD Technical Analysis: October 13, 2016

The pair GBP/USD strengthened for a while during the Asian session when the prime minister of UK, Theresa May announced its Brexit plan. The pound recovered but eventually lead to a sell-off and not able to get to the target level at 1.2300. 

The resistance level is at 1.2200 and the support level posits at 1.2100 level. The price moved downtrend with a break at 1.2200 and continued to 1.2100 level where the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs supported the downtrend further. 

The price activity favors the sellers as indicated in the MACD histogram and RSI that stands at oversold levels. 
The pair moves in a Bearish trend but when the price progress higher than the physiological levels, the bearish phase ends. The target is for the price to go lower than 1.2470 level.

 

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1 GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 14, 2016

The GBP/USD pair had a stagnant run during the last trading session after the sudden drop in its value last week. The pair had an average day-to-day range of a minimum of 200 pips. The currency pair is now consolidating between 1.2130 and 1.2550 points, with a possible break in the resistance level of 1.2550 opening the way for the pair to reach 1.2360, allowing the pair to have selling opportunities. The currency pair is now trading within the 1.2557 range and analysts are awaiting whether the pair would break through resistance or come down at the support level. 

The GBP/USD continues to be affected by the Brexit, and analysts are speculating the pair will continue resonating its effects for another two years, or until such time that the UK finally completes the referendum. 

Market players are now waiting for an announcement from the Bank of Englands Governor Carney, as well as a statement from the Federal Reserves Janet Yellen and the release of the retail sales data later today. Expect an increased volatility for the pair at the close of todays trading session. Analysts are generally throwing caution to the wind with regards to transacting with this particular currency pair, especially due to the Brexit and the recent drop in the Chinese economy.

 

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2 EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 14, 2016

The last trading session went bad for the EUR/USD pair due to the release of Chinas trade data, which turned out to be extremely lower than expected, with the data showing that the nations exports were the most affected sector. The trade data has now led to investors becoming uncertain with regards to the state of the Chinese economy, especially since the Chinese market is one of the largest markets in the world and any movement would certainly affect all major economies. As a result, the Asian stock markets experienced a significant decrease, as well as the S&P500 for the region. Meanwhile, the USD increased its trading value, causing the EUR/USD to reach support levels at 1.1000 points. 

The selling for the pair increased in activity which caused the pair to hit support at 1.1000, even going as far as 1.0985. However, the currency pair eventually recovered from the support level and went up to 1.1050 points, with the pair now at the 1.1054 trading range. 

Market players are now expecting increased volatility with regards to this currency pair due to the Feds statement which is scheduled to be released within the day, as well as the retail sales data to be released from the US. The pair could possibly go into reversal but is expected to immediately get back to its previous trading range during the session.

 

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14681793_200759943683507_7489230017998593 USD/CAD Techncial Analysis: October 14, 2016

The Canadian dollar inched higher than the USD during the last trading session in the light of the impending US retail sales data to be released on Friday. The risk appetite for the currency pair dropped due to a slowdown of the Chinese economy, with the nations exports contracting 10% annually and imports sinking by 2% in spite of a drop in commodity prices. 

Oil prices rose due to the weakening of the USD and an offset in crude stocks due to drawbacks from inventories in refined products. Meanwhile, Canadian house prices increased by 0.2% last August, while prices of real estates are now under close monitoring due to an increase in household debt fuelled by lower interest rates, which might become unsustainable for the Canadian economy. 

Meanwhile, the Canada-EU Trade deal has already passed another test after the German court denied a petition to block the said agreement. EU Ministers will be having a meeting next week with an aim to discuss this particular deal following concerns that the Belgian opposition might attempt to block the said deal due to the possibility of farm imports overshadowing local farm production.


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4 NZD/USD Technical Analysis: October 14, 2016

Major events regarding the Chinese trade data as well as the current concerns about petroleum prices had affected the kiwi negatively, as a result this instability lasted until Thursday. The sellers were in charge in handling the market.

The momentum trading maneuvered a downward direction then fell few pips below the 0.7050 level. Due to this instance, the price had accumulated a greater level and overturn such losses. The NZDUSD pair is viewed to be bearish. Moving averages continued to depreciate as seen in the 4-hour chart. Resistance rested around the 0.7120, support take its place at 0.7050 level.

When the MACD sits in the negative zone, this further soften the position of the sellers.The RSI oscillator tend to generate an upward position coming from the oversold territory. The ensued probable target is bearish settled in the 0.7050 region.

 

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14695579_200780093681492_8917561507996705 EUR/USD Technical Analysis: October 14, 2016

The minutes of FOMC were already publicized which includes the acknowledgement of the board regarding the investor's plan for a Fed interest rate hike. In return, the greens sustained its unyielding position. On Thursday, the EURUSD initiated a stronger note. The price withdrawn the 1.1000 as its current low then further reverse to 1.1040 all throughout the Asian session.

The USD had maintain its route to the European trade. The euro failed to extend its winnings and resulting for an immediate recession. Moreover, the pair descended and intersects the 1.1000 region. The price also weakened and made the dollar and euro jumped to the 1.0990. Moreover, this continued to recover a few losses from the post-European round. Moving averages stayed in a lower position as displayed in the 4 hours chart. 

Resistance paused in the 1.1050 level, support happen to fall at 1.1000 region.

MACD continuously performed a weak condition and fell off within the negative station whilst demonstrated convergence viewed in the hourly chart. RSI indicator implied an oversold trend. Mainly, the pair is apt to pull through the 1.1000.


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6 GBP/USD Technical Analysis:October 14, 2016

The sterling had kept a sluggish status due to the challenges against the European stocks as well as to the oil prices. In the meantime, greenbacks continued its strong path as it was supported by the present issuance of the Feds minutes. 

The sellers earned the control over the market. The cable left no choice and continued to stick around the selling pressure last Thursday. The recent low of the pair is 1.2100. Moving averages 50,100 and 200 stay behind to the lower area.

Resistance sit through the 1.1220, support have its seat at 1.2100. MACD still spotted in the negative zone, it means that the sellers also weakened. RSI indicator dominates the oversold area.
 
 

 

 
 
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14641971_200844730341695_3875177436823187 GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: October 14, 2016 There is a tint of negativity for the pair GBP/JPY session this day. The charts showed a hammer pattern which cautions sellers with continuous decline of prices. There is still not enough force to alter it but if a higher break comes it could get to 130 handle and be advantageous for sellers. Moreover, if an exhaustive candlestick pattern is formed, then better chances for sellers. It is possible for prices to go lower at 125 handle with sufficient time in trading.



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8 AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 14, 2016

Recently, the Reserve Bank of Australia announced the Aussie appreciated against other currencies which was predominantly because of housing market. 

In housing market, it is presumed for an increase in supply and contemplating on the risk factors, Central bank is taking actions on it. The RBA pointed out that one of the main concerns is the riskwith property expansion. There is an increase in demand for the nonperforming mortgages loans but still remain low in Australia. On the positive note, the risks has diminished over the past 6 months. The Central bank is still on the lookout for a hefty increase in supply within the city particularly apartments but it could be balanced out by the increase in demand thereby trimming the price. 

The RBA modified their requirements to foreign dividends borrowers and more stricter by limiting the lending conditions borrower when it comes to new property development. Thus, the risks will be greatly lessened as it is anticipated for the increase in credit risks as a result of high demand in housing units.
Nevertheless, RBA acknowledges the importance to monitor closely the housing market for further behavioral changes to prevent worsen the intrinsic risks. 

The rates of RBA remains the same with the last policy meeting last October 4th as they remain passive and act to the changes in pattern accordingly. In terms of bonds, RBA plans to cut rates with 28% chance by next year since government bonds rallied. Although last decision has higher percentage with 76% chances.

 

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9 USD/JPY Technical Analysis: October 14, 2016

The USD/JPY pair is at steady in an uptrend channel for short-term.

Nevertheless, the Yen strengthened against greenback despite the weak economy of China.

The price increase for a while but it declined again lower than 104.00 level. It is expected to go lower but the tension dwindled when it reached the 103.50 level. The price bounce back and the traders were able to recover some losses. Henceforth, the pair is trying to gain its momentum back to 104.00 level. The Resistance level is at 104.00 while the Support level is at 103.00 .
In the Moving Averages chart, the prices are at a high level as it continues the Bullish trend. The MACD is within the positive territory but the histogram declined implying the frail command of buyers. The RSI is also moving downward.

It is expected for the physiological level to hold at 104.00 level followed by a decline to 103.00 level.

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1 GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 17, 2016

The GBP/USD pair continued to trade ambiguously after traders and investors expressed their uncertainties over the current state of the sterling pound, especially now that the UKs strategies for Brexit have also become uncertain. The market has become dependent on the decision between the European Union and UK with regards on how to go about the Brexit, but so far this has not created enough stability for the market players. 

The pricing of the GBP/USD pair remained highly volatile for the rest of last weeks session, with the pair having reactions to movements from both the European Union and Britain, creating difficulties for those wanting to choose a trade direction for the pair. In the coming weeks, a significant number of economic data is expected to be released which will greatly affect the movement of this particular currency pair. For this week, investors and traders are expecting the release of the US CPI data, as well as the US Presidential Debate. 

The UK retail sales data as well as the UK CPI data will also be released within the week. The recent data releases for the UK turned out well for the most part, but the uncertainties surrounding the Brexit will most likely affect the market.

 

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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 17, 2016

The EUR/USD pair closed last weeks trading session at 1.0970 with significant support for the pair. The pairs pricing during this Mondays session will be an indicator if the EUR/USDs current bearish stance will be maintained or if there will be a reversal at this support level, especially since the recent reversals have been very small and market players are hoping that Mondays session will omit any uncertainties with regards to doubts in the bullish stances. 

On the other hand, the USD is in the full control of sellers and the bullish bearings of the USD is expected to continue until next week, and the EUR is being closely watched by market players as to whether the euro will survive this particular episode.

For this week, the market is expecting a handful of economic data releases, particularly the US CPI data. This particular data release is important for market players since this will be an indicator whether the data would be enough to push for an interest rate hike in December, and the ECB data which is expected to cause an increased volatility in the EUR/USD pair. Support levels for this currency pair is now at 1.0950, with the 1.0900 - 1.0950 trading range possibly becoming very hard for the pair to breakthrough, but analysts are expecting a long bearish period for the pair.

 

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1 USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: October 18, 2016 The USD decreased its value against the JPY during Mondays trading session after the release of US economic data which turned out to be lower than expected, on top of investor reaction to comments from Fed Chairwoman Yellen last Friday. The Empire State manufacturing index was released last Monday, with the index dropping by -6.80 in October, faring worse than the previous data of -2.0 and falling below the expected +1.1 estimate. Meanwhile,

 

the data for Industrial Production also fell below its expected reading of 0.3% since the data came out at 0.1%, but was better than the September release of -0.5%. The Capacity Utilization Rate data came out at 75.4%, going a bit higher than the previous data release of 75.3% but still lower than the expected reading of 75.6%.The Federal Reserves Vice Chairman recently warned that low interest rates might increase the vulnerability of the economy due to impending recessions.

 

For the last trading session, the USD/JPY pair traded at 103.779 points, going down by -0.37% or 0.387 points. Market players initially reacted to Yellens statement the Fed might wait for inflation rates to go beyond its expected range before inducing an increase in interest rates.



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 USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: October 18, 2016

The CAD traded within its previous range after the USD and commodity prices had a slow start for the week. Fed representatives have kept traders and market players on their toes in light of the expected interest rate hike in December, but the US fundamental factors are shifting the focus on the release of the inflation data in the coming days. 

The Canadian Foreign Security purchases data increased by 12.74 billion, with the input of foreign funds in the country marking the eighth consecutive month of positive net investments. 

For the USD/CAD pair, the pair decreased by 0.08% during the last trading session, with the currency pair now trading at 1.3129 prior to the expected rate statement release from the Bank of Canada on Wednesday. The CAD decreased in value due to the decrease in crude oil prices last Monday, and the CAD will be dependent on the BoCs rate statement on Wednesday, with the BoC expected to become more dovish in spite of little chances of an interest rate cut within the week, mostly due to the expected interest rate hike of the Federal Reserve later this year.
 
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 EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: October 18, 2016

The EUR/JPY pair has recently experienced a trading high of 116.30, a long shot from Septembers monthly low of 112.00 points. The currency pair backtracked from the Fibonacci levels of 23.6 and 38.2 last week after support levels went up to 1114.00-114.12 due to the 20-50 DMA, as well as the Fibonacci levels of 50.0. A breach beyond this level might cause a drop at 113.00 and 112.00, which is in line with the weekly and monthly time frames for the currency pair. 

The EUR will be reliant on this coming Thursdays events, with the European Central Bank seemingly uncertain on whether to increase stimulus to an already expanded policy due to increasing inflation rates and an increase in momentum levels as suggested by growth indicators. However, the ECB still has to remedy the decrease in supply as a means to keep its current program in line and make way for another program, albeit at a reduced level. 

Market players are expecting a particularly uneventful ECB statement due to speculations of an unchanged policy and ECB merely repeating its calls for politicians to improve structural reforms in order to boost economic growth in the European Union and to increase inflation in the region.

 

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4 EUR/USD Technical Analysis: October 18,2016

Yesterday, the dollar made a significant increase reaching its 7-month high in opposition to remaining main currencies. The greenbacks expanded its gains while presented positive US data at the same time. This supported the prospects of the investors concerning the Fed hike this year..

The same day when the euro made a reversal and essentially restore its losses. After the sales of assets on Friday follows the current improvement of some bearish investors earnings. The buyers were able to drove the greens and euro through the resistance level of 1.1000. On the other hand, price moderately cut-down and bullish investors failed to recover. It can be viewed that the EUR attempted to arrive at the 50-EMA of 1.1000. The 50-EMA made a roadblock hence dropping the price to a lower direction. 

Moving averages are descending. Resistance take the 1.1000 region, support is drawn in the 1.0950 level. Though the MACD lied in the negative territory, it reinforced sellers strength. RSI indicator wavers in the oversold area. EUR/USD still had the capacity to multiply its profits attaining the 1.1050 mark.

 

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USD/JPY Technical Analysis: October 18, 2016

Bidders leads trading since there is higher chance for the Fed rate hike especially since the US retail sales report shown positive results.

The pair USD/JPY continued to move uphill although it receded from the upper limit and is currently trying to move higher than the 104.00 support level. The 50-EMA showed a bullish move for US dollar and it looks like it will advance as it implies a strong support for the price. Other moving averages are also going upward with the resistance at 105.00 level and the support is at 104.00 level.

The histogram demonstrated a strong move for buyers with the MACD lies in the positive area and RSI being at the overbought area.
When a break comes in at 104.00 support level, it is most likely that it will slide towards the 103.30 level. A rebound back to last weeks high of 104.61 level would prolong gains for traders.

 

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USD/JPY Technical Analysis: October 19, 2016

The USD/JPY pair is currently trading at 103.87 points, increasing by 0.01% during the last trading session after a high of 103.98 and a daily low of 103.80 points. The Asian trading session exhibited an ambiguous trading activity while the market waits for the release of the Chinese GDP data for the third quarter of the year. The USD is currently on the uncertain side while the USD/JPY was able to retain its stance in the positive territory in spite of rallying from the 100 handle in September. 

However, this ambiguity of the pair can be remedied by the oil bulls, since this can be used as a means to measure risk appetite and market demand. So far, oil has been moving on an impressive note recently, with the AUD/JPY pair having a positive bid on its 4-hour chart from the handle of 76-80.

Although the currency pair is trading on the positive side, analysts are speculating that going above the 104.63 means that this could possibly target the monthly low in May at 105.55 points. Since the pair is currently trading at 103.88 points, then the next resistance point is at the 103.91 range of the 20 EMA, 103.98 range of the 100 SMA and the daily high. Meanwhile, support levels is expected to be at the 103.87 range and could also possibly drop to the 200 SMA of 103.80.
 
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USD/JPY Technical Analysis: October 21, 2016

The USD/JPY pair is currently trading at 104.13 points after increasing by 0.18% during the last session and has recorded a session high of 104.18 and a session low of 103.91 points. The currency pair is already losing its Asian session bid after the USD finally regained some of its lost value. The Bank of Japans Sakura Regional Economic Report has expressed possibilities of the yen increasing its pressure and has decreased the economic assessment for the Tokai region. 

Analysts are noting how the USD/JPY pair has remained stable all throughout the yield curve control set by the Bank of Japan, with all major Japanese markets such as JPY yields, Nikkei stock index and the USD/JPY experiencing relatively low volatility during the past trading sessions. The lower range for the USD/JPY pair might also be supported by the simultaneous selling off by Japan-based investors. 

Since the current trading value for the USD/JPY is at 104.13 points, resistance levels are expected to be at 104.18 points and 104.20 points. Meanwhile, support levels are expected to come in at the 104.14 range and 104.12 and could possibly drop further to 103.89.

 

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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: October 21, 2016

The USD/CAD pair exhibited extreme volatility during the last trading session which was mainly caused by a slew of Canadian news and events which were consecutively released during the session. First was the release of the CADs overnight rate which came out at the expected range of 0.5%. The Canadian monetary policy report also came out and came in short of the previous predictions by 1.1%. This caused the USD/CAD pair to break through the 1.3100 range and also attempted to move towards the 1.3000 region. 

The data for the oil inventory reports was also released, as well as the Bank of Canadas press conference details which showed a massive decrease in the overall inventory, triggering an increase in oil prices and increasing the value of the CAD. 

Support levels for the USD/CAD pair is currently at 1.3060, 1.3000 and could possibly dip into 1.2930. Resistance levels for the currency pair is expected to be at 1.3120, which was already broken by the currency pair and could possibly go over the 1.3250 region since the pair is currently at the 1.3141 region. The market is not expecting any major economic news releases from US or Canada any time soon, and traders are still speculating that the effects from yesterdays subsequent releases would still have an influence on the currency pairs value.

 

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USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: October 24, 2016
The USD/JPY pair reached a daily session high of 104.20 points before closing down the trading session at the 103.82 trading range, with daily lows for the pair recorded at 103.52 points. The USD/JPY received rejection at the 104.00 region during the Tokyo session and is currently at the 103.86 region.
The Japanese economic data for this year took on a generally disappointing note, with export data for the nation plummeting by 6.9%. Import data also dropped by 16.3% at the same period, with trade surpluses worth 498.3 billion yen. Chinese exports also decreased by up to 10.6%, causing the Bank of Japan to face renewed pressure with regards to lowering the value of the yen. However, analysts are saying that a Fed-induced drop in the yen might not resolve the issue of dropping Chinese exports since the yuan could decrease further as compared to the yen once the Fed decides to implement its long-awaited rate hike.
The economic calendar for today is primarily dominated by the Fed, with the possibility of an interest rate hike clocking in only at 70%. This possibility is not expected to increase any time soon due to the impending US national elections which overshadows hawkish sentiment from various policymakers. On the other hand, the yen might become more stable due to dovish statements and bearings.


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