The pair was influenced by the possible adjustments in the forward policy that will be implemented come second week of June. The ECB council is pressured prior to the June 8 council assembly following the slow changes seems to be not happening.
The Draghi and Praet both responded in the previous week saying the inflation is still on line towards a viable path towards the desired figure. On Tuesday, rounded off confidence data by the ESI sentiment indicator for the month of May warrants the recovery of the currency. Although, preliminary inflation for May is anticipated to decline.
The Euro against the U.S. dollar had an inactive Monday session because of holidays in the U.S., China and the U.K. On the other hand, equities are plunge as Italian shares declined by 2 percent including bank shares that fell more than 3.0 percent. This has been the highest drop over the past three months. Moreover, the bond market in Italy dropped fastidiously while the 10-year yield rose close to nine basis points that adds pressure to go down in Euro if the core prices fell.
The Resistance level positioned at 1.1265 which is its high previously while the support level is noticed close to the 10-day Moving Average at 1.1178 region. A doji pattern is noticeable in the trend that would mean indecision of the market. The price trend could further go down towards the next target of 1.1050 mark. If this level is sustained, the decline from 1.1267 indicated consolidation for long-term and rise again following the downtrend towards 1.1450 after the consolidation. The MACD index prints are seen close to the zero level implying a neutral stance while the MACD histogram shows a flat course that hints consolidation of the pair.
The Euro against the British pound declined during the Monday session. The pullbacks happened as the British pound stabilizes. If the price breaks down lower than the 0.87 handle which has a higher chance to happen, the next level would be at 0.8650. However, if the price breaks higher than the 0.8750 region implying that the downtrend has been disturbed and will move upward instead.
There is high choppiness in the market despite the fact that the recuperation of the British pound. This could result in a sell-off for long-term and it seems that the volatility will persist. Hence, short-term swaying may be the end result.
Quite often, you can decide which way to go in this market based upon how they are behaving against the US dollar. For example, if one is stronger than the other against the US dollar, then thats the direction you want to trade in this pair. Its something that I call triangulation, as you can glean whats going to happen in the EUR/GBP pair by paying attention to what happens in the EUR/USD pair, and of course the GBP/USD pair.
Most of the time, the next move in the market can be determined when compared with the U.S. dollar and give an idea which one will be better or not. This could also be applied to the EUR/GBP pair by analyzing the direction of the EUR/USD pair and the GBP/USD pair. Gauging their resilience and fragility in the market will help traders decision in trading depending on your preferred route to choose.
The British currency was able to gain strength amid Monday session after the stabilization in past few weeks. While the selloff was severe, nonetheless, were able to reach the region 1.2750 below. The mentioned level deemed as massive resistance previously based on the long-term chart.
As the sterling could maintain its overall stability, the market could possibly edged upwards. Upon breaking down the 1.2750 handle, buying in the dips appeared to offer a bigger and longer term buying opportunity. The selloff was drastic because of the political polls which is always wrong throughout the year. The market has to sustain its volatility, however, it will highly prefer the upside.
In the long-term, the GBPUSD will be bullish but there is a likelihood that the market has plenty of noise to deal with.
A break on top of the 1.29 handle will trigger the market to initiate a bullish pressure as it was able to lure the attention of some traders.
Meanwhile, buying the dips is possible and could be better if done in a short-term outlook, at the same time, employing small time frames and positions to complete this bias.
A cut through beneath the mark 1.2750 will break down which definitely change the general perspective.
The USD/CAD pair remained in consolidation mode as the market lacked significant volatility due to market holidays in China, US, and the UK. The loonie remains trading under the very important trading range of 1.3500 points, mostly due to a steadying in oil prices in addition to a strong greenback value.
The currency pair broke through 1.3500 points last week after a surge in oil prices. Although the oil bulls were very disappointed with regards to the results of the recently-concluded OPEC meeting, the loonie received some well-needed pressure from this drop in oil prices, thereby triggering the USD/CAD pair to revert to 1.3500 points and closed down last week at just under this critical trading level. The CAD is also currently being propped up by a series of very positive data from the Canadian economy, with this economic improvement getting some acknowledgement from the Bank of Canada in its rate statement during the past week. In fact, the BoC has already decided to put its rates on hold instead of implementing a rate cut due to this consistent improvement in the countrys economic state, which could then lead to a possible rate hike if the countrys economy continues to be positive.
For todays session, the US economy will be releasing its PCE data which is expected to clarify the countrys inflation status in addition to shedding some light on whether the Fed will be indeed implementing a rate hike next month. If the PCE comes out as negative, then the USD/CAD pair could possibly correct further towards 1.3400 points.
The Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar broker lower amid a choppy conditioned during the Monday session. It fluctuated back then and bounced off as it found the 0.7450 level resistive. Then, it declined towards the 0.7425 region and bounced again. For the past trading session, the market is moving in a downward direction and it wont take long before the pair breaks below the 0.70 region in the lower channel. If the pair breaks higher than the 0.7450 level, the market will head towards the 0.75 handle.
Also, the gold market has a direct impact to the pair which will be influenced by the movement of the commodity market most especially, since there are several factors that could trigger a move in the gold market.
A surge in the gold market surged based on the appetite risk will be beneficial for the currency. However, if a safety trade is the driver of the surge in the gold market such as the increased concern regarding North Korea inducing fear in the International market and people may go to the Aussie since it is a risky currency.
The surge in gold is most likely because of the search for safe-haven asset instead of economic growth purposes. This puts the Australian dollar in a difficult situation although it wont take that long for another breakdown as said before.
When it breaks down, the price trend could further go down although there will be choppiness with it as how it is for this pair for a while. Overall, the greenback is moving in a better side compared to the Aussie betting forward in short-term.
The New Zealand currency tried to rally on Mondays trading and broke out in the middle of the session. However, a reversal occurred then selloff by which the market would likely remain its choppiness as it advances forward.
A gapped down the 0.7040 region would allow for the to be sold since it is the level that provides a significant amount of support. Moreover, a cut through underneath that area would likely short the NZDUSD and touch the level under 0.70. A bounced within the mentioned area would trigger a pullback to support. With this, the market has the tendency to reach towards the top of the 0.71. The commodity-linked pair will still be volatile and we do not know about the amount of risk tolerance which largely influences the NZD.
We see that the latest uptrend was choppy, hence we should move higher but this could be a tough thing to do. Having said that, smaller positions are the least option to get involved in amid this scenario.
A break over the 0.71 range is extremely bullish and would continue as the stock market and the commodities will be relatively good. Otherwise, the market is going to break down towards 0.70. It will put out the market lower, touching 0.69 handle below. In both cases, we should anticipate for higher volatility for the pair.
The USD/CAD appeared to be negative throughout Monday session, however, it starts to search for another leg close to 1.3425 handle.
The market is in the downtrend at some point, which is highly influenced by the oil markets.
The trading yesterday was very thin as the oil sector surge which established a bearish pressure towards the USDCAD. It will be a challenge when the full volume returned to the marketplace which could absolutely persuade the market eventually.
Ability to break on top of 1.35 handle requires the market to continue moving higher. Otherwise, a renewed lows would significantly cause a breakdown and maybe, it could touch 1.33 handle. However, the route could be really choppy which obliged the participants to be cautious.
Previously, a downtrend is prominent despite the noise around the crude oil markets, this could lead to a sudden shift.
In case that the oil industry breaks on top of $50.50 level based on the WTI grade, the market will initiate a significant collapse. Contrarily, a cut through beneath $50 level could possibly prompt the pair to rally towards the upside giving an opportunity to resume a longer-term uptrend which is common and important in the past few weeks.
The next moves are highly anticipated and there are predictions that it could be best to take a pause on the sidelines, waiting for a correlating move from both markets prior investing a large amount to work.
The EURUSD bounced back from its session lows against the lower than expected result in Germanys inflation rate along with the weakening of EMU sentiment. Meanwhile, the GDP statistics of France was corrected higher, Spains inflation and Swiss KOF index came in softer
The diverging opinions about the exit strategy of the European Central Bank remain to go through jawboning prior the banks meeting scheduled the following week.
Moreover, the pair bounced off in spite hitting its renewed lows, however, failed to regain the resistance at 1.1182 level around the 10-day moving average. The support touched 1.10 region close to its April highs.
The bull flag dwindled seeing the momentum to shift in the negative. The moving average convergence divergence established a crossover signal to sell. This event was triggered due to the spread that crosses underneath the 9-day EMA. The MACD histogram move ahead the negative zone prior the positive territory, therefore, indicating a sell signal.
The British currency had broken out in the upside amid Tuesdays session following an initial move lower. A break above pushes through a higher high with the possibility that the market will trail near 1.29 handle. The mentioned level certainly holds an amount of psychological significance and a cut through on top of its would generate a bullish signal.
The region below 1.2750 had a significant floor which appeared to be a massive resistance previously. With this, the buyers would likely return each time a dip was made and the pound has been further oversold because of the vote casting.
While the conservatives have greater chance to win again over the election, hence, risks should peter out taking into account to where the United Kingdom will go next.
Moreover, it still an advantage to buy dips within this market. It could touch the region 1.3050 again while offering good trading opportunities for longer-term position in the past sessions. An ability to break on top of that area would mean the market will move ahead near 1.3450 mark. It should be given enough time to reset the level and there is a tendency that market players will look this pull back as valuable and beneficial.
The EUR/USD pair started off yesterdays trading session on a somewhat subdued note as UK and US traders returned to their desks after the long weekend, with market liquidity levels reverting back to normal during the latter part of the previous session. The currency pair had decreased in value last Monday following concerns regarding Greeces bailout, as well as Draghis statement wherein he remains as dovish as ever.
But the EUR/USD pair continues to fare for the better as the PCE data came in on a very disappointing note during the second half of the previous session. As the PCE data is a very important gauge of US inflation rates and will serve as the Feds basis for its subsequent rate hikes, the greenback suffered a correction, enabling the EUR/USD pair to take advantage of the dollar weakness and surge from its lows of 1.1110 points to reach the 1.1200 trading range. US bond yields also failed to meet investor expectations, and as the stock market closed down yesterday within its range lows, this caused the dollar to receive a serious beating which then caused the EUR/USD pair to further increase in value. The currency pair experienced some minor corrections during the duration of its price action yesterday but is now resting over 1.1150 points and looks poised for more upward movement.
For todays trading session, as today marks the end of this month, there are a lot of expected month-end flows although there are only a few economic data scheduled for today. The market is expected to add up its volatility as some Fed officials will be making statements today, with the EUR/USD pair possibly exhibiting a strong price action for the rest of the week.
The GBP/USD pair exhibited a very intermittent price action during the previous session as it was extremely volatile during the previous 24 hours. The cable pair further surged in value during the European session and the first few hours of the NY session as the market volatility returned to its normal levels following a low liquidity volume last Monday. The US PCE data which was released yesterday also came out to be somewhat disappointing for the market as the data showed a lack of bite in US inflation rates, causing the greenback to drop in value and enabled the GBP/USD pair to advance towards 1.2880 points.
The June snap elections in the UK is recently serving as a determinant for the price action of the cable pair, and since there have been a lot of discussions going on including the possibility of the UKs ruling party losing the snap elections, the GBP/USD pair did not take this particular piece of news lightly and fell below 1.2800 points almost immediately after the said update. Theresa May had initially called for the snap elections as a means for her to establish herself further while creating a more solid majority for herself, and such, anything less than a landslide victory for may would cause a massive pound selloff as the market becomes jittery just before the elections commence.
For todays session, there are no major releases from the UK economy, although a lot of month-end flows are expected within the day which are all expected to put downward pressure on the cable pair.
The U.S. dollar traded against the Japanese yen declined during Tuesday session. The 110.80 is being tested and it seems that the trend will further go down towards the 110 handle. This makes this region important and it will make take too long when buyers return again in the market.
The pair is highly sensitive to the risk appetite and a higher stock market as well as the commodity market would push this market to move higher. If the pair breaks to fresh new highs even above the 111.50 region, it opens the possibility to move towards the 112 level and a break even higher will most likely hover to 115 handle next.
There is a general risk off for this pair that would push the price lower towards the 110 region surpassing the 108 region. Yet, there are low chances for buyers to return to the market as the U.S. stock market rallies. This has a significant effect in International market and this includes the pair.
Timing would become an obstacle for traders that makes smaller trades as ideal positions in the market especially if the trader is aiming for a long-term bet. It is seen to be struggling against the short-term downtrend for the past few days. Overall, there is a bullish pressure seen below for long-term trades.
The national currency of Britain weakened amid Tuesday trading, however, it had a significant rebound from the area 141.80 reaching the 143 handle. A break over the daily highs would direct the market in a higher position, as it may reach 144 level without plenty of issues.
Generally, the Sterling holds a significant amount of reversal throughout the day since the Cable further exhibited active signs. This could probably be a correction for the oversold condition where the GBP sees itself, after the election polling it became tighter exceeding its expectations in the past. Moreover, the figures decreased inclined with the conservative administration. Having said that, the uptrend will resume eventually, hence buying is highly preferred on the gap above the highest.
Remember that the pairs relative to Japanese yen appeared to very sensitive to risk. This could be considered as one of the most delicate pairs, the simultaneous rally of the stock market is a big help that could move 100 pips in an instant.
Either way, a cut through underneath 142.50 region would allow the market to touch 142 handle once again.
The daily candle begins to display a bullish stance which signals that buyers will return, nevertheless, it could be best that youll wait for the market to reveal hints to initiate the buying, as a means to safeguard your account against an extensive volatility.
The USD/CAD pairs price action is currently dependent on the state of the economic data coming from the US and the Canadian economy within the day, with the market monitoring whether the currency pair will be able to turnaround from its presently very weak trading action.
The loonie was also unable to make any significant progress yesterday as it merely consolidated throughout the course of the previous session. Oil prices were also able to stay afloat, and this has reflected on the activity of the USD/CAD pair. The greenback experienced a slight weakness during the latter part of yesterdays session but was unable to make any significant impact on the movement of the USD/CAD pair. The loonie is currently trading at just over the 1.3450 trading range. As we enter the second half of this week, the market is now bracing itself for the onslaught of economic data coming from Canada and the US, which are all expected to induce additional volatility into the market. The Canadian economic data has been consistently able to exceed initial market expectations, and this has helped the loonie to remain ahead of other major currencies and is one of the reasons why the USD/CAD pair is now in a very weak state.
For todays session, the Canadian economy will be releasing its GDP data, and since the Bank of Canada has very positive sentiments with regards to the current economic state of the country, these incoming economic data will either make or break the central banks current sentiment. The GDP data is only one among several economic releases within the week, and the market should prepare itself for an expected volatility surge.
The EUR/USD pair looks poised to make another attempt at reaching its current range highs as the currency pair was able to take advantage of a correction in the greenback. This upward pressure in the currency pair is expected to last well into the first few days of June, particularly the 2 most essential trading days for this month.
The dollar experienced corrections on the back of a couple of disappointing data from the US economy. The first one was the Chicago PMI data, which failed to meet its expected economic reading and the pending home sales data, which also disappointed the entirety of the market yesterday. This triggered a large-scale dollar selloff against other major currencies and has enabled the EUR/USD pair to advance towards 1.1200 and was even able to reach 1.1250 points throughout the course of the NY session. Since the Fed had previously clarified that the implementation of the June rate hike will be wholly dependent on the results of the incoming economic readings from the US, the market has become very sensitive to readings coming from the US economy, with even minor readings inducing major volatility levels on the market especially if these comes out as very disappointing for investors. Eventually, the PMI data was revised to a much higher reading and this helped to cushion the blow of the fall of the USD, although this has left an impression on the market with regards to the adverse effects of a negative reading to the value of the US dollar. Meanwhile, the USD continues to be in peril in spite of its drop in value being temporarily stalled.
For todays trading session, there are no major news releases coming from the EU economy while the US will be releasing its unemployment claims data and its ADP Non-Farm Employment change data during the NY session, which is a precedent to the release of the NFP report on Friday. This particular bit of news is then expected to induce major volatility levels and a move of the currency pair below 1.1200 points should be a signal for the pairs bulls to rethink their positions.
The GBP/USD pair continues to exhibit a negative price action although it was able to get some rest from the recent drop in the value of the greenback. As the UK snap elections are drawing closer and closer, the market is also getting more anxious as the days go by. This market anxiety is now clearly reflected in the performance of the markets, with the sterling pound still unable to catch a significant break as far as the market is concerned. Although the cable pair was able to advance from its range lows of 1.2800 points towards 1.2900 points, the currency pair still looks very weak and could crash anytime soon.
The major reason behind this weakness in the sterling pound are the various opinion polls which suggests that Mays current lead in the forthcoming elections is dwindling bit by bit, with May possibly failing to garner her initially expected majority win. Theresa May had announced the snap elections in the hopes of getting a more substantial majority as compared to her current majority, thereby establishing her position as one of the strongest world leaders. However, with her popularity losing momentum daily, this plan of hers might not come into fruition come election day. This has then caused the possibility of a hung parliament to be endangered, which could spell disaster for May and her ongoing Brexit talks and could also be very bad news for the state of the sterling pound. This could also potentially encourage Scotland to call for another independence referendum.
For todays trading session, the UK economy will be releasing its UK PMI data, although the current risks surrounding the sterling pound might not be able to be counteracted even if the readings come out as positive. Meanwhile, the US economy will be releasing its unemployment claims and ADP employment reports, all of which are expected to increase the cable pairs volatility levels. Traders are then encourage to proceed with caution with regards to trading with the cable pair as it is expected to be highly volatile in the next few days.
The EURUSD accelerated on Wednesday amid lower than expected inflation statistics released by the European Union. Meanwhile, France also reported disappointing figures upon issuing HICP data, this was announced along with the soft German data on Tuesday.
The retail sales of Germany declined and yet the employment gained much strength beating expectations. The European Central Bank mandates a single monetary policy fixates on inflation which compels ECB President, Mario Draghi to conduct an effective argument in order to keep the banks dovish view of forward guidance.
The pair continues to create a bull flag formation which is designed as a continuation pattern that takes a pause to refresh. This is a breakout pattern that resembles a cup and saucer and we could get the picture when prices entered the previous week highs found at 1.126 region.
The next target for the resistance level is close to November 8 highs touching 1.1299 mark. While the support approach the 10-day moving average took the 1.1189 range.
Momentum appeared neutral since the MACD histogram prints around the zero-index level with a flat trajectory which further indicates for a consolidation.
The RSI (relative strength index) crept upwards along the with price trend suggesting an ascending positive momentum.
The GBPUSD slowdown during the session on Wednesday and made a reversal to generate a significant bullish trend. A gapped on top of the level 1.29 indicates a bullish signal whereas a pull back was executed from the mentioned region but this appears to be an impulsive price action which does not have any impact. With this, the market has the tendency to move near 1.30 area and could possibly climb higher. The sterling was oversold due to concerns regarding British elections, however, the pound came in resilient and there are no signs that the GBP will shift its attitude at all. The absolute floor of the market is found at the area 1.2750 and a break down beneath there would impose selling the market and a significant resistance hurdle in the past. The trend during Wednesdays trades was massive and somewhat parabolic which reflect a remarkable tenacity when buying. Therefore, a pullback is an advantage against this move.
Moreover, the market should remain to have buyers and expected to fight to the upside in the longer-term. The move will intensify upon acquiring an overwhelming victory for the conservative in the UK elections.
Further volatility is expected and yet the upside tends to progress forward, hence small position could the easiest road in trailing this market.
The USD/CAD pair was able to advance further towards its range highs during the previous session in spite of the greenback suffering blows against other major currency pairs due to a series of disappointing economic data from the US economy. The loonie is now trading at just above 1.3500 points which is considered to be a very essential trading region for the currency pair. However, the market has yet to see whether the USD/CAD pair will indeed manage to go even higher and reclaim its bullish price action or if it will correct and return to its previous trading range.
This surge in the value of the USD/CAD pair has been mostly attributed to a string of weak economic data from Canada. As the Canadian GDP was released during yesterdays session, the annual and quarterly readings for 2016 disappointed the market in spite of a very positive monthly reading. This was far worse than what the market had initially anticipated and has caused the loonie to correct and the USD/CAD pair to increase further in value. Oil prices also dropped while the Canadian inventory data showed a solid draw in addition to an added increase of Libyan production data. This caused both the Canadian dollar and oil prices to drop and was more than enough for the currency pairs bulls to help prop up the value of the USD/CAD pair past 1.3500 points where it is currently sitting as of the moment.
For todays session, the market is expecting the release of unemployment claims data and the ADP employment report from the US economy, both of which are of utmost importance since this serves as a precursor to the incoming NFP report due tomorrow. The oil inventory data is set to be released today, and this, together with the NFP report will most likely determine the short-term price action of the USD/CAD pair.
The U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar declined during the early Wednesday trading. Followed by a breakout at 1.35 handle. The market attempts to break out again and reach for a fresh new higher than the 1.3530 region that opens buying opportunities.
The oil market is also declined which is not good for the Canadian dollar and bring the price up which has been in an uptrend for some time. This means that buyers are expected to return to the market.
It may not be a good time to position this pair for short term until a break lower than the 1.34 handle but as of now, we cannot tell what are the chances for this to happen. It would be difficult for the market if the price breaks in the upper channel towards the 1.36 handle which has been strongly resistive in the past. If oil continuous decline, it would most likely move higher that the current levels.
The OPEC production cut did not really have much of an effect on the market although this would contribute to the appreciation of the U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar especially when more oil produced are released from the U.S. This worsens the condition since the pair will go higher because of this instead of going down.
However, if the price breaks from this level, it could reach as low as 1.30 region although this may take some time to occur. Moreover, a breakout in the 1.35 region is strongly resistive since las
The Kiwi dollar calmly traded during the session on Wednesday as the 24-hour exponential moving average continued receiving some type of support. Meanwhile, the 0.71 region still offers some psychological resistance, however, a break over the area is expected very soon. The pullbacks provide a buying opportunity since all moving averages are bullish and the level below 0.70 lured the attention of market players as it appeared to be large, round and an important psychological number. With this, the pullback seems valuable not until a breakdown under 0.70 occurred. And the market could probably be sold because the NZD beat a relative currency, the Australian dollar. The noise was prevalent as the chart shows that we are in an uptrend.
Moreover, the market would probably chop with a mild bias going upwards and at the same time, there is a possibility for a long, slow grind higher to take place.
As the New Zealand currency strengthened against its cousin, AUD, you may opt to buy this along with an Asian currency except that you refers to the selloff in JPY pair.
The Australian dollar paired against the U.S. dollar attempted to move higher but the 0.7475 region was strongly resistive during the Wednesday session. Instead, the trend reversed followed by a rollover towards the 0.7425 handle. This has been a significant support level in the past few sessions that makes a bounce from here expected to happen.
Traders should monitor the general risk appetite of the market since this could influence the pair. If the price breaks higher than the highs during the Wednesday session, the next target would be at 0.7510 region. A break in the upper region signals buying of the pair which is a significant break out. Overall, there is a lot of noise in the market.
Gold is essential in the movement of this pair but traders should also monitor the risk appetite. Others are cautious with the positioning scared of the status of gold market but this would be more damaging to the market.
However, this should not prevent the market from moving but most of the time have higher correlation in the market. There are days where the trend is headed in a different direction because of economic or geopolitical events. Over
Overall, traders anticipate choppiness in trading the Australian currency as they will be a lot of noise present due to geopolitical concerns. Short-term opportunities will come from time to time that traders could take advantage of.
The British pound against the Japanese yen declined during the Friday session following a surge in the start changing the risk on attitude in a rapid pace. Moreover, the U.S. jobs data worsen the situation which is less than expected. There is also a lot of risk appetite from the market which is contradictorily beneficial for the pair.
From the current psychological levels, it seems that the market will rally from here on directed towards the 143 handle. The 142 level below gives significant support and if the market is able to sustain this, there is a higher chance for a rebound.
However, if the price breaks lower than the 142 level instead, the next move will most likely go down towards the 141 handle. Nevertheless, there is a high chance for volatility and choppiness which is already expected for this pair especially since it is risk sensitive.
Buying in the lows is advantageous for the market that makes it easier to trade this pair. However, it seems that this is fitting for buyers to get involved. Consequently, the market will go down towards the 143 handle and down to 144 handle.
For long-term, this pair will tend to move higher but the current risk appetite is uncertain but the stock market is reliable that could reverse trades lower in the day on Friday. This makes selling less appealing in the current condition.
The New Zealand against the U.S. dollar soared during the Friday session influenced by the weak reports of jobs data. There is no upward hint that makes it not surprising when it move higher.
From the start, the pair broke higher than the 0.71 region on Friday and it lingered within the upper channel. When buyers bought the pair in the lower channel, it could next towards the 0.72 level and above.
Overall, the market remains strong but being a pair with high liquidity, the succeeding moves will be big moving towards the upper channel. Nevertheless, buyers who missed the opportunity in the former move will most likely grab the next chance they have.
Buying lows is the ideal move to move forward with this pair. It seems that the 0.71 level is quite supportive but shorting to pair is not advisable in the current value of the pair.
Nevertheless, there will still be high volatility in the market but there are still opportunities available for this pair. If the trader is being patient with a certain amount of money, a trader can still find positions in the market. Buying is more profitable for this pair unless the pair breaks lower than the 0.7050 region which indicates a complete reversal.
The U.S. dollar attempted to surge in the beginning of Friday session. Soon after, this was reversed due to soft results of jobs data. The pair broke lower than the 1.35 handle signaling the downtrend of the pair. On the other hand, the long-term trend moves in an upward direction.
There is massive support found in the 1.3250 region. More buyers will come in the market if given enough time but for now, sellers are dominating the market for short-term.
The oil market also has a high impact in the market but as it is directed downward, this could push the price to move up. Also, higher volatility on Friday brought in gains for traders that could result to oversupply later on when the traders realized the current situation of the market.
Choppiness is anticipated in the market with some problems from time to time. Other than the oil market that had a high impact to this pair, the current job condition is the primary focus of the market more than other issues. Although this is just for short-term, traders could opt to go long on this pair.
A significant support is found close to the 1.3450 region while it is found at 1.3250 on the long-term charts. A bounce back from here or a move higher than the 1.35 handle hints a move to the upside. Some traders would sell this market but they should still remain vigilant in doing so.
The AUDUSD had a sharp increased on Friday followed by the disappointing reactions by investors against the measure of U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls. According to the data, the headline number presented a least than expected results coupled with the weak average hourly earnings. As the headline number was left behind, the Fed rate has 90 percent of chance to increase in June. But traders raise concerns regarding the banks potential to imply a lift on rates twice in the later part of the year. It became the main reason for the rally of Aussie and drop of the greens. The dollar gained less attraction due to sinking rates.
The major trend went down as reflected in the daily swing chart. On Friday, the momentum turned to the upside with the dramatic pattern of a closing price reversal bottom.
A trade within .7446 confirms the chart formation. A move over .7475 shifts the action as shown in the daily chart.
The main range highlighted the regions .7329 to .7517 while the retracement level touched .7423 to .7401 area which is the new support. The short-term range entered the .7517 to .7372 marks along its retracement zone which lies at .7445 to .7462, which are the upside focus. A break out through the area suggests a stronger buying.
As shown in the trajectory at .7440 around Fridays closing, the possibility that the rally will resume during the earlier session is expected.
The price movement is influenced by the .7445 region close to short-term 50% level. A sustained trend above .7445 signaled strength for buyers. This will push the AUDUSD through the near-term Fibonacci level set at .7462, subsequent to .7472 which is a downtrend angle along with the major top that came in at .7475.
A cut through within this region will alter the major move upwards and generates an upside momentum to challenge the succeeding downtrend line at .7495. This is regarded to be the final support angle prior the main top shown at .7517.
Failure to get past through .7445 give the favor to the sellers. The next focus are the figures 7427, .7424 and .7423 which could be a critical area for support. Inability to hold the region will lead the Australian dollar lower, en route .7401.
Be cautious about the price action and analyze the order flow seen at .7445 in the entire session.
The GBPUSD declined on Friday and face through some volatility as the U.S. employment figures released with a lower than anticipated results.
The market now appeared to hover below the 1.29 handle considered as a major level. The ability to break on top of the said region would lead the market towards 1.3050 area which provided a significant resistance.
Buying on the dips remain to be the most suitable way in playing the market beneath 1.2850 that has been offering an amount of support. Meanwhile, a break over 1.29 range would trigger a continuous higher movement. In the long term, buyers will still get involved and show further strength sooner or later.
Headline risk could still remain since concerns regarding British exit keep forging ahead. This might influence the sterling in any moment. Ultimately, the pair can find a bottom upon staying beyond the level 1.2750.
Moreover, the built-in bid resumes in regards to the GBP. An attempt to move ahead the 1.3450 handle should be done. However, lots of issues and concerns surrounds the British economy, therefore it may take some time to reach the target. Selling is ruled out except when we cut through down the 1.2750 area.
The EURUSD moved through an upward direction on Friday after the release of weak data on employment report. The U.S yields further weakened as prices ascended at a faster pace compared with the European bonds. This made the euro lure attraction of investors prior the ECB meeting scheduled next week.
The European producer price manifested stronger figures, beating expectation which paved the way for a higher rate on the pair. The pair had broken out on the back of a bull flag formation which serves as a pause to refresh higher.
The prices increased by 1.1282 region just shy of 1.1299 close to November 8 highs. The next resistance target is found at the mark 1.1365 near the highs of August 2016. The support reached 1.1206 area around the 10-day moving average.
The momentum came in neutral while the MACD histogram printed nearby the zero-index level whereas the index appeared to be in a flat trajectory suggesting for a consolidation.
The GBP/USD pair exhibited a very weak trading action earlier this morning although this was kind of expected due to yesterdays terror attacks in London. This recent slew of attacks within the region has increased the risks surrounding Britain and now that the snap elections are set to begin within a matter of days, the cable pair is expected to continue receiving pressure throughout the duration of todays session as well as in the coming days leading up to the day of the UK snap elections.
The GBP/USD pair has been very weak during the past weeks as Theresa May had a hard time making sure that the results of the snap elections would come out in favor of her political inclinations. May had initially sparked the election in the hopes of getting a much better majority, and this initially seemed like a good move considering that the opposition bloc back then was very spotty and in shambles. But within the course of two months, Mays lead has been steadily decreasing during the past weeks and the market is now speculating that the Parliament might be hung in no time at all. However, there is still a possibility that May might be able to win the elections after all and could even win a small majority, although this is not enough for May to be able to establish her position in the international scene, especially when the time comes for her to start with the Brexit negotiations. This could ultimately be very bad for both May and the UK economy and this is why the GBP/USD pair has been very weak as of late, with pair being unable to go beyond 1.2900 points in spite of a relatively weak US employment report.
For todays session, the UK economy will be releasing its services PMI data, but regardless of how this data comes out, the political events from the UK is expected to remain in the headlines, with the GBP/USD pair continuing to look very weak in the short-term period.
The USD/CAD pair went through a very restricted week of ranging and consolidation activity as the pairs overall accumulated range amounted to a just a little more than 120 pips. This range is currently the tightest for the USD/CAD pair and this illustrates the intensity of the ongoing struggle between the pairs bulls and bears. Now that the currency pair has already moved past 1.3500 points, this marks a shift in the trend of the currency pair especially since the USD/CAD pair has been recently unable to surpass 1.3500 points during the past two weeks, indicating that the pairs bulls are struggling with regards to dominating the movement of the currency pair.
Thanks to the pairs bulls, the USD/CAD pair has managed to prevent itself from falling any further as the bulls remain struggling against the bears in order to make sure that the currency pair does not fall hard and fast. The bulls have been helped in part by the recent drop in oil prices whose downfall was mostly due to a surge in production and inventory and has made sure that the Canadian dollar remains weak across the charts. However, the irony here is that one of the primary reasons behind the currency pair getting bogged down through 1.3500 points was the recent surge in oil prices, but now that oil prices have already dropped in value, the USD/CAD pair has reached a point of no return where there is no expected assistance coming from external factors. But since the Canadian economy has been showing signs of steady improvement during the past months, this steady uptrend in the countrys economy is expected to remain in effect at least during the short-term period.
For this week, the Canadian economy will be releasing its unemployment rates and employment change data, both of which are expected to give a clear depiction of the current status of the Canadian economy. If the employment report comes out as positive, then the USD/CAD pair could possibly make a move towards 1.3400 and could even move lower through the bottom rungs of its range.
The EUR/USD pair underwent a very volatile trading action last week after it was able to stick to certain resistance and support levels, thereby making last week a relatively painless week as far as the currency pairs traders and investors are concerned. The buyers only had to choose the correct buys in order to gain profits as the EUR/USD pairs uptrend was pretty much evident since it was able to maintain its hold on to certain selling and buying points.
The first half of last weeks trading session was a rather lackluster time for the EUR/USD pair, with the dominant market trend being the performance of the dollar as the market anticipation for the month-end flows increased by the day, wherein the market was generally expecting an influx of US data such as the NFP report. This then caused the EUR/USD pair to drop in terms of its value but since the 1.1100 points contained a lot of buys, the pair has managed to revert strongly against any quick drops in its value. As the second half of last weeks session commenced, this was marked by a transition into a new month and was characterized by several economic reports such as the ADP employment report, which impressed the market by coming in at a strong reading of 153,000, thereby increasing the chances of a positive NFP report, which would ultimately increase the possibility of a Fed rate hike this month. But the NFP fell short of its market expectations as well as the wages report, and this was more than enough for the EUR/USD pair to surge by over 70 pips and closed down last weeks session at its range highs located at 1.1280 points. ]
For this weeks session, there are no major news coming from the EU except the ECB press conference scheduled on Thursday. The market is instead expected to shift its focus towards the UK elections as this will have a significant impact on the standing of the euro. If Theresa May manages to win over a strong majority vote, then the euro could possibly drop a few points, although the bullish undertone for the EUR/USD pair is expected to remain intact at least for a few more days.
The USD/CAD pair continues to exhibited a very tight price action as the pairs bulls and bears continue to fight out for the control of the currency pair and is expected to remain as the pairs dominant trend in the short-term period. The pair has been trapped in a very limited range ever since the currency pair managed to push forward past 1.3500 points with buyers dominating the 1.3400 trading range.
During the past few days, oil prices have remained stable, thereby decreasing the amount of leverage it gave to the Canadian dollar and was one of the reasons why the loonie was unable to take full advantage of the dollar weakness which was due to a series of dismal US employment reports last week. Oil prices has also continued to be very disappointing due to rising tensions in the oil-rich Middle Eastern countries and has subsequently diminished its support for the loonie. In spite of the pair making a headway towards 1.3460 for a short while, it was almost immediately met with several buys, causing the USD/CAD pair to retreat towards 1.3500 points, where it is expected to stay put at least in the coming days. The market is now preparing itself for the trading sessions on Thursday and Friday as the currency pair would most likely undergo a volatile trading session due to Comeys testimony as well as the release of the Canadian employment report on Friday. This is why traders are advised to remain in the sidelines until such time that a break shows up on the pairs range before inducing any kind of progress in their trades.
For todays session, there are now major releases from both the US and the Canadian economy and the USD/CAD pair is expected to continue consolidating throughout the duration of todays session.
The British pound against the Japanese yen broke on the lower side during the Monday session which was upturned indicating bullishness in the trend. It is directed towards the 143 level and higher up that fills the gap. There is a robust resistance seen in the previous trades that makes the reversal unexpected. However, if the price is set higher, this would persist to an elevated level pointed to the 144 region.
It is anticipated to have volatility for this pair regardless of the next move since the market is in a risk on or risk off sentiment. Moreover, the British elections worsen the situation as it affected the British currency that brings unpredictability in the market until the election on Thursday. Other global economic concerns will also affect the trend.
Volatility is the current focal point of the market and if it gaps more than the 143 region, more buying opportunities will come out for the market. However, if the election polls showed conservatives leading in Britain, this push this pair aimed higher with chances to break higher than the 144 region then shift towards the 145 handle.
Traders should not expect that trading this pair would be easy that makes trades on small positions to be ideal for this pair or one could opt to wait in the sidelines as GBP/JPY is one of the pairs risky to position in the market.
EUR/USD traders entered into monitoring mode during the previous trading session as a slew of economic news releases are expected to become the dominant market trend this coming Thursday and Friday. A very choppy price action was also seen in the EUR/USD pair as the majority of traders and investors are waiting in the sidelines as part of their preparations for a heavy trading environment during the last two days of the week.
The EUR/USD pair in particular is having a very hard time with regards to advancing past 1.1300 points, with the currency pair stopping abruptly at 1.1283 points and was unable to make any more headway in spite of the dollar weakness. The drop in the USDs value is being seen as more of a risk than an advantage since the dollar is apparently preparing itself for the onslaught of economic data this coming Thursday and Friday. For Thursday, the market will be reacting to the Comey statement, the UK snap elections, and the ECB press conference and this is why the market will be in for some major volatility surge. This is why what the market is undergoing right now is merely a prep for Thursday and it is recommended for currency traders to step away from the limelight and start making moves once the dust settles on Thursday.
For todays session, there are no major releases from the US or the EU economy save for the US crude oil inventory data, and traders can expect a somewhat safe ranging and consolidation price action for the pair, with 1.1300 points as the designated price ceiling for the pair as of the moment.
The GBP/USD pair experienced a major correction during yesterdays session as its previous gains were due to a reaction on the most recent opinion polls, which outlined a clear victory for UK PM Theresa May. However, these opinion polls were quickly forgotten by the market as the market shifted its focus on more immediate geopolitical events which could have an influence on the cable pair.
The opinion polls, although somewhat positive at first, had no lasting effect on the price action of the sterling pound and as such, the GBP/USD pair corrected its gains and is now back at 1.2900 points in spite of the dollar weakness as the pound had to deal with some problems of its own. The GBP is now under heavy downward pressure as the snap elections are set to commence this coming Thursday and since the majority of opinion polls are still giving off an ambiguous stance, the market is in turn unsure of what steps it should take next and this has put additional pressure on the sterling pound. In addition, the dollar is also relatively weak as of late since it will be reacting to Comeys testimony set tomorrow, which falls on the same day as the snap elections. This is one of the reasons why traders refuse to make any clear moves on the GBP/USD pair and instead shift to a wait and watch mode until such time that all activity subsides and be safe enough for them to resume trading.
For todays session, the US economy will be releasing its oil inventory data while there are no major releases coming from the UK economy. The GBP/USD pair is then expected to range and consolidate throughout todays session as it preps for tomorrows polls.
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: June 7, 2017
The GBP/USD pair experienced a major correction during yesterdays session as its previous gains were due to a reaction on the most recent opinion polls, which outlined a clear victory for UK PM Theresa May. However, these opinion polls were quickly forgotten by the market as the market shifted its focus on more immediate geopolitical events which could have an influence on the cable pair.
The opinion polls, although somewhat positive at first, had no lasting effect on the price action of the sterling pound and as such, the GBP/USD pair corrected its gains and is now back at 1.2900 points in spite of the dollar weakness as the pound had to deal with some problems of its own. The GBP is now under heavy downward pressure as the snap elections are set to commence this coming Thursday and since the majority of opinion polls are still giving off an ambiguous stance, the market is in turn unsure of what steps it should take next and this has put additional pressure on the sterling pound. In addition, the dollar is also relatively weak as of late since it will be reacting to Comeys testimony set tomorrow, which falls on the same day as the snap elections. This is one of the reasons why traders refuse to make any clear moves on the GBP/USD pair and instead shift to a wait and watch mode until such time that all activity subsides and be safe enough for them to resume trading.
For todays session, the US economy will be releasing its oil inventory data while there are no major releases coming from the UK economy. The GBP/USD pair is then expected to range and consolidate throughout todays session as it preps for tomorrows polls.
The USD/CAD pair exhibited a ranging and consolidating price action throughout the duration of yesterdays session as the market shifted into a monitoring mode as preparation for Super Thursday. The majority of market players are refusing to take any unprecedented positions in the market and this is why a choppy price action is being seen for the USD/CAD pair as well as for other major currency pairs.
The only positive note for the currency pair yesterday was the steady strengthening of the value of the CAD, which had bearish undertones as a result of a surge in oil prices and was even able to keep itself at its higher ranges. This rise in oil prices was mostly due to the recent standoff in the oil-rich Middle East which might potentially endanger oil production and has subsequently affected oil prices. This then contributed to an increase in the value of the CAD and has caused the USD/CAD pair to trade lower within the 1.3450 range. The currency pair is expected to continue trading within a very limited range, with sells situated at 1.3500 points and buys located at 1.3400 points. If the currency pair manages to make a break and veer away from its current price action, then this might induce some major movements in the pair and the market will be waiting to see what happens in the next few days.
For todays session, the US will be releasing its oil inventory data while there are no major releases from the Canadian economy. The USD/CAD pair is most likely to undergo a limited consolidation for todays session.
The NZDUSD rallied amid trades on Tuesday and broke the level on top of 0.7150 smoothly. The Kiwi dollar continued to search for buyers on dips and tend to handle some pullback as an opportunity to increase rate.
The market tried to touch the region above 0.72, en route 0.75 afterwards. As shown in the chart, the area around 0.71 handle provides a lot of support and regarded to be the floor of the market in the near-term uptrend. The commodity space continues to weigh on the market and the NZD seems to be the barometer towards the overall sentiment of futures trading. Watch closely for the commodity because it could possibly show the way.
It could be a good move to buy dips moving forward because it suits the current status of the New Zealand currency. Selling remains impossible as far as we breach under the 0.71 mark. A successful break down prompts the market to reach the range below 0.7050 which is very supportive previously, along with the 0.70 region. In any case, the market remains to be volatile, however, the moving averages came in reliable, particularly the 48-hour MA shown in green color, hence it should offer further buying opportunities.
The volatility driven market persists, but the late impulsivity indicates that buyers begin to develop more confident as it moves ahead. Moreover, the dips will provide value which is an advantage to market participants.
The GBPUSD had attempted to rally yesterday, however, retreated to the level 1.2950 to return underneath the 1.29 handle. In the past few sessions, the market appeared to have a little bit of overall bullish pressure, waiting for the results of UK elections expected tomorrow. In this case, the market will probably experience choppiness and unprepared to conduct a significant move yet. Short-term volatility is predicted along with some choppy spots but a general ascending momentum should also be anticipated. It does not mean that a pull cannot be accomplished, it only implies that longer-term charts and the range below 1.2750 should offer massive support that will surely lure the attention of the majority of market participants.
After the session on Friday, the long-term outlook for the pair shall be available as it could be very difficult from this moment and the next.
Buying the dips remains to be the best option for the Cable but the dips showed to be somewhat steep. You should have got small positions as of now and after the election results in order to acquire lesser damage that might suddenly arise.
Markets have lots of speculation regarding the election decision, therefore a cool level head should be maintained as this is crucial for the following sessions.
In the longer-term, the pair might break the 1.3050 mark as it allows the market move higher freely, or maybe reach its long-term target found at the region 1.3450.
The EURUSD aimed to make a rally during Tuesday session but look for a strong resistance around 1.1280 region to make a reversal. Then, rebounded through the 1.1240 mark.
Meanwhile, the market remains to be bullish and attempted to front run the monetary policy statement of the European Central Bank.
The ability to break out in the upside enable the market to move towards the area on top of 1.13. The 1.15 range is the top of the latest consolidation seen in the EUR/USD for the past years.
Moreover, the market might experience difficulty in breaking above the mentioned range, however, series of attempt were made to get through the area and identify its capacity to hold on.
Buying in the dips resumes progressing forward despite anticipated noise.
As the Britain will leave the European Union, there is a chance that some statements will weigh against Euros value. Either way, the interest rate hikes from the United States may catch more attention.
A breakout to the upside is possible while the 1.12 market must be the floor in this market.
The U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar declined in the early Tuesday session. Although, there is a sufficient support found at 1.3450 level to recover. Later on, the resistance level was found at 1.3490 and move to and fro within the trading range. This is already expected as the market waits for the release of Crude oil inventories later this day. This has a direct influence on USD/CAD pair.
The oil market has a big influence with this pair which will mirror the movement of oil price fluctuations. It seems that the crude oil market will persist with a bearish tone for long-term. Later on, it is anticipated for this pair to surge higher but will most likely result to extreme choppiness in the market. Overall, the trend is predicted to be bullish for long-term positions.
The 1.35 level is becoming a significant level and a break over this would move the psychological level towards the 1.36 mark which is also much more relevant for long-term traders. It may be best to put on hold shorting this pair until the price breaks at 1.3400 region below. This would indicate a bearish tone for the market.
There is a lot of noise found in the pair because of the OPEC production cut and concern regarding the Gulf states particularly between Qatar and Saudi Arabia divisive issues. These contribute to the bearish tone on crude oil that opens a chance for a rally intermittently.
The U.S. dollar was behind of the Japanese yen during the Tuesday session. The USD/JPY pair broke lower than the 110 region which makes weaker to further decline. On the other hand, the 110 mark is being resistive. A move lower towards the 108/ region is the next target because of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and a whole number that offers significant level.
In the current condition of the market, it is better to sell this pair, especially if the 110 level and below is sustained. Also, market should be careful of volatility with the presence of bearish pressure as the U.S. dollar depreciates
More traders could play on the safe side with the ongoing tension between Saudi Arabia and Qatar. There is a somehow a pressure underneath and entails a risk off in trading. A move higher than the 110.50 level would counter the negativity in the market that would push the trend to go higher.
Overall, traders should expect high volatility. It may be difficult to bring the price higher with the strong resistance level while the 108 region is a significant level that traders cannot ignore following a rollover during the Tuesday session. If the price breaks lower than 108 region, then this would propel the price downhill in the next trading sessions.
The Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar broke the 0.75 resistance level during Tuesday session. Although, this was reversed with signs of support in the lower channel being tested again which would most likely go higher.
The price consolidation lower than the 0.75 level is being supportive that makes buying lows as a wise move in this pair. The support moves until 0.7450 region and it would be best to wait until it breaks lower before selling this pair.
The gold market attempts to break higher during the day of the trading session which would have an effect to the Aussie. When the gold rises and breaks higher than the $1300 level, it would give a bullish sentiment in the market and could trigger to move higher. Moreover, it seems that the market has changed its focus on Aussie where formerly the New Zealand dollar outpaces it in the market.
The GDP data from Australia to be released today would have an impact to this pair. Nevertheless, buyers are dominating the market.
It is best to wait for the price to break lower than the 0.7450 region before shorting this pair. Despite the volatility in the market, the positive momentum remains positive in the succeeding trading sessions. However, the impulsiveness of the market in the past few days has slowed down the rate of the market.
The EUR/USD pair exhibited a very intermittent trading action within a very limited range, and although the currency pair had a single clear move amidst the haze of its incessant ranging and consolidation, the market chose to interpret the currency pairs movement as very choppy ahead of Super Thursday. Although the EUR/USD pair did manage to move towards the bottom rungs of 1.2200 points, it was almost immediately met with large-scale buying, causing the pair to retreat towards over 1.1250 where it is currently located.
This downtrend in the EUR/USD pair was mostly due to reports that Draghi could possibly make amendments to the central banks inflation targets but was immediately reversed after another report came out which hinted at Draghi being very hawkish with regards to overall growth. These kinds of speculations are usually expected during a very big trading day like today, although the real deal is expected to happen during todays trading session. The UK snap elections is one of the highlights of todays session, and although the Conservatives seem to have the upper hand as of the moment, the essential factor here would be the margin of victory and this will have an effect on the value of the euro. Next up is the ECB rate announcement, wherein the central bank is expected to maintain its rates, which will be followed by the ECBs press conference where the market will be closely monitoring whether Draghis statement will be hawkish or otherwise. James Comeys testimony is also another thing to watch today as this will reveal whether Trump had any involvement with the Russian probe which could cause a drop in the USD. The 1.1300 point range has been the pairs key level for the past weeks and due to repeated attempts and failures of breaking through this range, a target of 1.1500 could be easily reached if the pair would be able to surpass 1.1300 points.
Due to several events happening today, the market is expected to be highly volatile and traders are advised to stay away from the sidelines first and wait for all the fanfare to subside before making any trades.
The GBP/USD pair chose to remain cautious and remain within the sidelines during yesterdays session, although what should excite the pairs bulls more is that the cable pair was able to stay afloat over its critical support range of 1.2900 points throughout yesterday. Although the pair momentarily dipped at just under this range, it was immediately met with a lot of buying and this caused the pair to return to its original range and is now trading at just above 1.2950 points ahead of Super Thursday.
The UK snap elections is set to commence today and while several opinion polls paint a pretty picture as far as the Conservatives are concerned, the margin of victory is actually the most important part of the polls. Anything less than a widely-spaced victory would be considered as a major failure for Theresa May as this could prove all her efforts to be futile and might have a negative effect on the status of the sterling pound. But then again, this will all boil down to just how big of a majority May will be able to garner at the end of the elections. A bigger majority would be more beneficial for the pound and this will then dictate the price action of the pound in the short term. The 1.3000 point-range of the GBP/USD pair has been a very critical range for the pair for the longest time, and repeated attempts to go past this range will be a formidable barrier before the pair can advance towards 1.3400 points. If the pound becomes bearish, then this could cause the pair to drop towards 1.2750 points and even 1.2500 points depending on how negative the results of the polls are for May.
In addition to all of this, Comey will also be making his testimony today and this is expected to put more downward pressure on the dollar, although if Comey refuses to indict Trump, then this could serve as a breather for the USD. All in all, this day is expected to be a very volatile trading day for the GBP/USD pair.
The EURUSD edged lower, however, bounced off from Wednesdays support prior the meeting of the European Central Bank scheduled tomorrow along with the leak regarding ECB will lower down inflation predictions.
Moreover, the bund yields decline causing the single European currency to become unattractive and yet traders raise concerns with concerns to the forward guidance of the bank as this could lead the pair to a higher stance.
Additionally, the United Kingdom would likely do polling considering the presidential race tightened significantly but decreased by 18 points roughly because PM Theresa May had announced a snap general election. The pull out made by May would likely result to another hung parliament bringing a chaotic Brexit.
The pair rebounded at 1.221 support close to the 10-day moving average. While resistance highlighted the 1.1284 region around the weekly highs. The next aim for resistance is the level 1.1299 near the highs of November 8.
Momentum appeared to be neutral considering the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) to print within the zero-index level. The histogram is positioned also close to zero with a flat trajectory which suggest for further consolidation. The relative strength index (RSI) showed a neutral stance as it prints at 64 found on the higher end of the neutral range.
The USD/CAD pair had a bullish trading action during yesterdays session after the pair struggled to go beyond its critical resistance range located at the 1.3500-1.3530 range. But so far, this region has managed somewhat to escape the wrath of the pairs bulls. But now that there are several important economic events lined up for todays session, the USD/CAD pair could go in either direction which makes trading generally unsafe at least for today.
As of the moment, the USD/CAD pair is trading at just over 1.3500 points as the market is preparing itself for the slew of geopolitical events happening within the day. The surge in the pairs value during the previous session was mostly due to a drop in oil prices after the US inventory data released yesterday showed a significant inventory progression paired with ambivalent expectations. This means that oil continues to be sold off while inventory and production remain at its range highs, which is pretty bad news for the loonie. This caused the USD/CAD pair to exceed 1.3500 points. However, the pairs bears managed to redeem themselves via a selloff at the 1.3530 trading range which has stemmed any upward move in the currency pair at least for now. Now that oil prices are expected to remain weak in the coming days, the Canadian dollar would possibly remain under pressure, although a speaking engagement from Poloz and the release of Canadian employment data today might help the CAD to improve its outlook. The Comey testimony will also determine the short-term price action for the USD, and it seems that the market is in for a very interesting trading day today.
Aside from the BoC speech and the release of the Canadian employment data, there are no expected news from the Canadian economy while other geopolitical events within the international sphere are not expected to have any significant effect on the USD/CAD pair. However, traders are still strongly advised against making any active trades today and instead wait out the events before engaging in any trade decisions.
The New Zealand dollar dropped in the beginning of Wednesday session. There is a sufficient support found in the 24-hour EMA in the hourly chart sufficient to reverse the trend to move higher. It seems that the pair would try to reach the 0.72 region and above. A breakout would be the best deal as this makes the start of buying again similar with staying in the lows and how long can it be maintained on yesterday trading.
The pair could further rise if the commodity market, regardless of its type, steadies as it gains strength. It could be the CRB or the ETF outside of the U.S. that are still part of the commodity market as a whole.
Buying on the lows is still ideal for this pair despite its breakdown during the Wednesday session. The 0.7150 is found to be supportive especially the 0.71 handle. Hence, it wont be long before the buyers dominate the market again considering its value when retreated to lower levels.
Consequently, there will be volatility seen in the trend from time to time which is an opportunity for bulls waiting for a chance to sell this pair when the Kiwi recovers.
The British currency weakened throughout Thursdays session because the Parliament election became the center of interest. As of this writing, the Conservative Party appeared to take a few seats, so expect that the market will start to solidify gradually. Moreover, the 1.29 handle down seems supportive and a rebound from the market is not a surprise at all.
The market are trailing within the uptrend channel but the result from the election is not yet released, therefore there is a tendency for it to change in haste. It further preferred to continue buying on dips as we go searching for the area above 1.3050 which is said to be resistive.
A break on top of it will move the market near 1.3450 region which could be the target in the longer-term. This will kept intact unless a massive state from the election came in. nevertheless, it does not necessarily mean that there is a simple way to move there, hence this might be the way towards a longer-term position. Having said that, buy on the dips will continue and lots of in and out trading will be recognized over the following weeks.
A breakdown beneath the 1.29 mark wont indicates a selling position as there is much support on the diverging levels down through the 1.2750 range.
Lastly, the market contains an upward bias and the course will remain to be driven by headlines relative to what was discussed in the Brexit referendum. This could be a tough one and buyers could possibly take an upper hand.
The events happened yesterday unexpectedly wrought a slight impact against the USD/CAD, as well as to other currency pairs. However, there are predictions that it would be an explosive day yesterday due to incidents lined up while traders work late at night to secure a safe position and to keep their trades well but everything turned out to be less impressive and unexciting.
The said events are as follows; the decision of ECB to hold its rates paired with the announcement on inflation targets and increasing growth outlook, though it is obviously has nothing to do with the pair. Next is the testimony of Comey after he accused US President Trump with lots of things.
These scenarios were unable to move the dollar and any movement only indicates an insignificant strengthening of the greens that lead the USDCAD near 1.35.
In relation to the Canadian dollar, BOC Governor Poloz delivered a speech expressing his delight about the current condition of their economy. He also stated that he was comfortable regarding the price trend in the housing industry. The neutral tone strike by Poloz reflected towards the commodity-linked pair which continuously trades in a steady and unspecified direction.
Later this day, the Canadian employment figures is anticipated to be release that would likely cause volatility. If the report showed a stronger result, it would help the pair to reach the lows of its tight range close to the 1.3450 level.
The EURUSD drove downwards as the European Central Bank (ECB) decided to maintain the interest rates on a steady pace coupled with dropped easing bias. This further took a neutral position with regards the way they will see the monetary policy.
The schedule for quantitative easing remained unchanged while rates should be expected to retain its recent levels as reflected in the transcripts.
The pair moved near the support shown at 1.1220 mark that lies around the 10-day moving average which currently serves as the resistance in the near-term. Further resistance sits at 1.1285 region close to the weekly highs. An ascending sloping trendline is found at 1.1140 area. Meanwhile, the momentum turned towards the negative territory and the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) produced a crossover signal to sell prompted by the intersection of the spread under the 9-day moving average. The histogram shifted from positive en route the negative grounds and confirmed a sell signal.