EUR/USD Technical Analysis: December 21, 2016
The successive economic events that arise did not affect the current market condition, these reports include the positive Producer Price Index for Germany and Yellens speech in a hawkish way that strengthened the U.S dollar. Meanwhile, the single European currency resumed its softening yesterday. The pair tried to accomplish a short recovery during the morning trades, however, the EUR/USD weakened upon exceeding through the 1.0400 region where it met a renewed risk-on that influence a negative mood towards the market. In a short while later, the pair bounced back below the 1.0400 level and headed to the area of 1.0350 before the onset of NY sessions, at the same time, the euro tested the 1.0350.
As shown in the 4-hour chart, the price continued to decline lower than the moving averages that edged lower as well. Resistance entered the 1.0400 level, support holds the 1.0350 handle.
The MACD histogram kept its previous position which indicates strength for the sellers. The RSI touched the oversold zone as it supports for a new downtrend.
In case the pair closed below 1.0350, it is anticipated that it would extend downwards the 1.0300 range for the following days. The next potential target of the sellers is 1.0250.
EUR/AUD Technical Analysis: December 21, 2016
The pair EUR/AUD is moving in a downward direction linking its latest highs and lows. Price rebounded at 1.440 psychological level back to its 1.4100 support level. The 100-SMA is higher than the 200-SMA where there is lesser constraint in the upper channel. This means that it is possible for a breakout on the higher zone in the next test resistance.
The Stochastic level is in the oversold area and is moving upward implying buyers are taking the lead in the market. If the current resistance level is breached, it could go further up towards the next ceiling between 1.4500 to 1.4550 zone.
Traders confidence has dropped since the latest terror attack in Germany, Turkey and Switzerland. The Italys banking sector being the concern globally with the need for bailout especially its largest banks. Moreover, the decision of the European Central Bank for an extension to its Quantitative Easing program up to December next year could drag the currency even lower.
The agitation between U.S. and China has an impact to the Australian dollar. It is expected for the commodity price to decline including its business activity due to Feds tightening monetary policies pushing the high-yielding currency lower.
There is not much activity for the pair USD/CAD with few days left before the Christmas holiday. Since there are significant news event in the financial market, there would be no driver to boost trading in different directions which also limits the spread up to 80 pips for the whole daily range, lower by 33% than the average daily range. It is anticipated for the trading range of the pair to further decline especially since the weekend is near and the last days of the year.
In the next few months, liquidity and volatility is expected to increase pushed by appreciation of the greenback with the expected 2 or more rate hikes as announced by Fed for next year. The pair would continue its uptrend with the medium target at 1.4000 level. This has been the target for quite some time and it may take a long time for the traders to reach this price. There have been few corrections for the past months but they arent that big which are countered by strong buying bringing the price back every time. Hence, the uptrend is maintained as is expected to persist.
There is any major news to be released today from Canada and U.S. area except for the Oil inventory data. This may bring in some volatility although this may not be sufficient to cause a break in the price trend and move out from consolidation for this day.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis: December 21, 2016
The pair AUD/USD dropped yesterday but rebounded higher than the 0.72 support level and formed a hammer pattern. This signals a bullish trend but the price could further go up towards the 0.73 level or even higher. If a resistive candle is formed, there would be opportunities for selling with a break below the base of the hammer. Moreover, the decline in gold puts a bearish tension to the Aussie.
NZD/USD Technical Analysis: December 27, 2016
The NZDs recent drop in value was stalled due to the release of highly positive economic data from the region, namely the GDP and Current Accounts data, both of which exhibited highly positive sentiments. The NZD/USD pair stayed within the 0.6900 level and hovered within this range for the rest of the day. As seen in the pairs hourly chart, the pairs value was able to test the 50 EMA. Resistance levels for the NZD/USD pair will be at 0.6950, while support levels are expected to be at 0.6900 points.
The MACD indicators for the pair increased, which is indicative of a weakening in seller positions. The RSI indicators for the currency pair stayed within the oversold region and is currently in a northbound direction which shows the upward momentum of the currency pair. The pair is expected to go upwards as soon as it reaches resistance levels of 0.6950 points, and if the pair manages to go beyond its resistance levels, then the pair could possibly reach the 0.7000 level.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: December 27, 2016
The sterling pound remained under pressure during Fridays trading session as the release of the GDP data for the third quarter as well as the Current Account data failed to make an impact on the value of the GBP in spite of their upbeat sentiments. The GBP/USD pair maintained its bearish undertone during Fridays trading session, and the pairs sentiment was cemented after the the currency pair dipped below 1.2300 points. The currency pair then reached a daily price low of 1.2250 just before the opening of the London trading session. The 4-hour chart for the currency pair showed that the pairs value continued to develop even way beyond its moving averages while the moving averages themselves continue to head in a downward direction. The resistance levels for the currency pair is expected to be at 1.2300, while support levels could possibly come in at 1.2200 points. The MACD indicators for the pair remained in its previous level, indicating seller strength. The RSI indicators for the GBP/USD pair also remained in the oversold area.
If the value of the GBP manages to drop below 1.2250 points, then this could make way for a renewed selling pressure and could cause the sterling pound to plummet below 1.2200 points. The GBP/USD could possibly hover at the support area of 1.2160 before eventually going down further to 1.2100 points.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: December 27, 2016
The EUR received significant support from economic data in the eurozone, which turned out to be highly positive. The German Consumer Confidence Survey were able to meet initial market expectations, while Consumer Spending data from France increased as opposed to its previous reading. Meanwhile, the GDP data from the region maintained its previous reading. The EUR was able to extend its gains during last Fridays London trading session, which was relatively muted due to the holiday season.
However, the market is exhibiting low liquidity levels since majority of investors are still currently in the midst of celebrating the holidays. This then caused the effects of the positive economic data to be somewhat subdued as compared to a normal trading session. As seen in the hourly chart for the EUR/USD pair, the pricing for the currency pair is currently situated in the middle of the 50 and 200 EMA. The 200 and 100 EMAs were able to sustain their bearish stances while the 50 EMA is currently facing in an upward direction. The resistance levels for the currency pair are expected to come in at 1.0450, while support levels are expected to be at 1.0400 points.
If the pricing of the EUR/USD consolidates way below the pairs first target, then this could cause the EUR/USD pair to drop at 1.0350 points. Conversely, the EUR might be able to sustain its bid stance if it reclaims the 1.0450 level, and this could induce the pair to increase up to 1.0500 points.
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: December 27, 2016
The pair USD/CAD positions within a tight range on both side of 1.3500 level since the market returned from holiday with sluggish trading activity. This may persist for some time this week bringing low volatility and liquidity in the market.
Last Friday, the pair closed on low note but still not enough to push the pair higher balanced out by the gaining strength of U.S. dollars today. Despite the changes in oil prices making a comeback this year and the agreement to reduction of oil production later this year causing the prices up did not swayed the strength of Canadian dollar. The bulls also failed to bring correction in the pair. The expected rate hike next year added more pressure for the bulls making it more difficult with seldom corrections in the price trend but this correction can be seen as an opportunity to trade long positions instead. The lowest target for this pair is at 1.40 handle and giving a positive outlook for the medium uptrend.
There is no major news to be released today from Canada. Nonetheless, traders should expect a bullish tone in todays trading session.
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 27, 2016
After the holidays, the market returned in a slow trading condition moving towards consolidation within a range instead of an active trading session. Moreover, traders from Australia, New Zealand and UK are not present making the volatility and liquidity more sluggish for today.
Last Fridays trading session ended low while no other pairs took advantage of this as they remained in a consolidation state last week. The pair GBP/USD retained its low position as it consolidates at a tight range below the 1.2300 level. However, we expected a change in volatility condition near the middle of the week nearing the last days of the month. Another factor is due payment of U.K.s membership fees of to European Union amounting to a number of billion pounds which would affect the price progression and its volatility in the market. The exact date if payments remains unknown but these would directly affect trading of the pair and in turn indirectly affect the pound. Thus, traders have to consider these conditions while trading the pair toward the end of the month.
As for the economic news, there is no major events from U.K as the market is on leave. Hence, it is expected for the pair to remain in a consolidation state today. While the U.S. dollar is presumed to trade in a neutral or a little bit bearish for the whole week that will support the activity for today and for the rest of the week.
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 27, 2016
The market returned to its normal condition after the Christmas day, however, there are some traders that havent returned prior to the New Years celebration. Usually, the week after the festive season presents a more volatile period and more liquidity in comparison to the week before Christmas. This happens because 2017 is fast approaching, pressing the banks and funds to balance their books, check their bad stocks, assess their present positions in order to have better opportunities in New Year.
New Year follows the month end which affects the flow of currencies in the market and demands for a larger amount of fund conversions.
The major pair EUR/USD are involved in the UKs responsibility to amend payments in the Euro area every month which traditionally costs billion pounds where it also disturbs the stance of the EUR/GBP.
As of this writing, there are no major economic reports from the European region except with the data regarding Consumer Confidence Index. The United States also does not have any news. Generally, the pair is expected to consolidate with a mild bullish tone, however, need to have a 1.0500 clean break for the pair in order to accomplish some progress.
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: December 27, 2016
The stock market of Japan will not be operating on Friday to give way the birthday celebration of The Emperor. On the other hand, investors secured their positions prior to the holiday season.
The USD/JPY pair is currently in the period of downside consolidation and traded with a slightly bearish sentiment.
Moreover, the market is in the moderate phase of trading a week before the Christmas day in spite of the shortage of liquidity. As shown in the 4-hour chart, the price tested the 50-EMA but unable to shift to a lower position. The price hovered on top of the moving averages.
Resistance reached the 118.00 level, support is seen at 117.00 region.
The MACD histogram settled in the center point. In case the indicator entered the negative, zone, sellers strength will grow but if it pierced the positive territory, buyers will have the ability to dominate the market. RSI lies in the neutral area.
The bearish tone generally exist in the market on Friday. The yen and dollar pointed in the 117.00 support level. The next target is 119.00. Supposing that it failed to break a lower point will drive the market in the 118.00 and 118.50 marks.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis: December 27, 2016
As the week ends the AUD/USD pair established a weak position wherein the traders seems affected in the decline of iron ore prices along with the divergence of the monetary policies between the RBA and the Fed. The selling pressure was triggered also by the current thin trading.
Today marks another week for a holiday and it will be a tough day for the market to drive up the volume. Moreover, traders are told to steer clear of volatility spikes based on the latest news headlines.
Major economic reports are not present in the market today, however, dealers have the opportunity to engage with the news from U.S which involves the S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI at 1400 GMT with an expected 5.0% which is close to the previous result of 5.1%.
Furthermore, the daily swing chart showed that the main trend is moving downwards and it's a long way to maneuver an upward trend. This extended price movements pushed the market towards a closing price reversal with a bullish condition. The next potential downside target is .7145 which is also expected to be the bottom on May 24, followed by the .7107, the predicted bottom for February 29. While the upside ratio is .7279 that will shift a minor trend to an advancing volume.
During the early trades, the market will test the .7145. When the selling pressure persists, the move will switch to .7107. The .7097 downtrend angle will drive the Aussie and American dollar in a bear position.
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 27, 2016
After the holidays, the market returned in a slow trading condition moving towards consolidation within a range instead of an active trading session. Moreover, traders from Australia, New Zealand and UK are not present making the volatility and liquidity more sluggish for today.
Last Fridays trading session ended low while no other pairs took advantage of this as they remained in a consolidation state last week. The pair GBP/USD retained its low position as it consolidates at a tight range below the 1.2300 level. However, we expected a change in volatility condition near the middle of the week nearing the last days of the month. Another factor is due payment of U.K.s membership fees of to European Union amounting to a number of billion pounds which would affect the price progression and its volatility in the market. The exact date if payments remains unknown but these would directly affect trading of the pair and in turn indirectly affect the pound. Thus, traders have to consider these conditions while trading the pair toward the end of the month.
As for the economic news, there is no major events from U.K as the market is on leave. Hence, it is expected for the pair to remain in a consolidation state today. While the U.S. dollar is presumed to trade in a neutral or a little bit bearish for the whole week that will support the activity for today and for the rest of the week.
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: December 28, 2016
The USD/CAD pair is still trading with a bullish stance after spending almost the whole of the previous session trading above 1.3500 points, and this trend is expected to continue for todays session. The USD traded on a somewhat much weaker tone in relation to other currencies, but in the loonies case the weakness of the US dollar seemed to have little if not completely no effect on this particular currency, with the CAD easily trading over 1.3500 points and could possibly become more positive when the USD regains some of its recent losses next week. Market speculators have long since been saying that the CAD might soon be subject to a very strong uptrend, and traders should be loading up on longs in order to make way for bigger future gains.
The USD/CAD pair seems to be already unaffected by the movement of oil prices unlike a few weeks back, wherein the CAD had significant reactions to the wild careening of oil prices. Now, in spite of the recent increase in oil prices, the CAD continues to trade strongly. However, the next few weeks are expected to hit an adverse effect on the Canadian economy since the recent economic data from the region has done little to appease investor sentiment, and oil prices are expected to continue increasing, and Trump will be assuming office in January. The somewhat weakening of the CAD is evidence of this foreboding string of events next year.
Todays trading session will most likely be characterized by more consolidation and ranging with a bullish undertone since there are no major news releases from the Canadian economy.
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 28, 2016
The GBP/USD pair traded within a tight range of 50 pips during yesterdays trading session, and is expected to continue this particular trend along with ranging and consolidation for todays session unless interrupted by a currency flow just before the month ends. The UK market was characterized by a remarkably low level of liquidity yesterday due to a UK holiday. However, some market players are banking on an increase in volatility just before this month draws to a close, as well as currency flows which could possibly occur towards the end of the week. However, the recent market trends are not expected to become completely altered even if the month-end currency flows appear and induce market volatility. This is because the recent dollar weakness is expected to continue up until the end of this week, and since the USD is expected to bounce back immediately after the holiday season, the recent trends might still be sustained even after the holidays.
For todays trading session, there are no major economic news releases expected from UK, and this means that the GBP/USD would most likely engage in more ranging and consolidation up until the end of todays series of sessions.
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 28, 2016
The EUR/USD is still experiencing a tight-lipped trading range after trading within 30 pips. The market liquidity is not expected to increase until next year since there are no signs of currency flows as of late. However, the new year is expected to bring back market liquidity since this signals the end of the holiday season. The EUR/USD had high trading ranges during the North American session yesterday, where it attempted to go beyond 1.0470 points in order to reach 1.0530 points. Meanwhile, the USD exhibited a marked weakness during these past few sessions, particularly against the EUR. This trend is expected to remain for the rest of the week as the market attempts to remove some of the bearishness of other currencies against the USD. The USDs strength is expected to bounce back next week, and it is therefore vital that the euro bulls would be able to take hold of this opportunity and accomplish all moves in order to avoid the adverse effects of the USD regaining its strength.
There are no major economic data releases expected from the international community for todays sessions, and this means that added consolidation and ranging could possibly be felt as there are no currency flows which could be a catalyst for added market volatility. As such, traders are advised to tread lightly and remain within the sidelines for this particular period.
The U.K markets are not in operation in the observance of Christmas season which cause low market volatility, the weak volume had strengthened the dollar versus the British currency. The pound further consolidated amid early trades on Tuesday. The cable pair hovered below the area of 1.2300 prior to a fresh selling interest that influenced major currencies.
The traders are able to lead the GBP/USD towards a lower level at 1.2227. The 1-hour chart showed the priced reversed the 50-EMA downwards, the entire moving averages pointed lower which is also indicated in the same time chart. Resistance touched the 1.2300, support is seen at 1.2200. The MACD histogram softened which implies strong position for the sellers. The RSI reading stayed around the oversold zone.
In case the bearish sentiment continued to prevail, a breakout in the 1.2200 level is expected. Moreover, if the pound and dollar carried a breakout, the next target of the sellers is the 1.2100 support level.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: December 28, 2016
The U.S dollar bolstered yesterday as few dealers decided to make some trade before the New Year celebration take place. The EUR/USD established a neutral position on Tuesday with the same closing level on Friday. The euro had a tough day around the 1.0450 region.
The price tested the 50-EMA as shown in the 4-hour chart. Moving averages (50, 100 and 200) remained to be bearish. Resistance reached the 1.0450 level, support is at 1.0400.
The MACD histogram lies in the center point. In case the indicator arrived in the negative zone, it would mean improved strength for the sellers. On contrary, the entry within the positive area would indicate buyers ability to dominate the market. RSI procured a neutral position.
An advance movement beyond the 1.0450 will assist buyers in expanding their gains towards the 1.0500 area. However, the price has the possibility to decline in the 1.0350 region if the sellers reclaim the control.
The stock market of Canada is close due to U.Ks official holiday, Boxing Day. While the release of GDP and CPI last week has changed the supposition of the Canadian regulator for the easing of its monetary policy in the near future. The pair remains in the hands of the buyers within its 6-week high. The greenbacks regain some of its losses because traders pushed the price towards the 1.3540 from the previous 1.3500 level.
The short-lived upward momentum further weakened in the predetermined level where the buyers came across the resistance of the sellers.
According to the 4-hour chart, the USDCAD hovered on top of the moving averages. The 50-EMA cross over the 200 and 100 EMA in an upward direction. While the 100 and 200-day moving averages are neutral and the 50-EMA headed up. Resistance highlighted the 1.3540 region, support sits in the 1.3470.
The MACD histogram grew less which confirmed weak position for the buyers. RSI remained overvalued.
If the 1.3540 region were unable to break, it would cause for a downward correction when the pair plunge below the 1.3470 support level. The next potential target of the sellers is 1.3400. The pair is able to expand its gains towards 1.3589 if the buyers break higher.
NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 28, 2016
The trading session for the pair yesterday has been calm and moves lower than the 0.69 handle. Last breakout for the pair was below the 0.70 level. This downtrend is expected to persist over the long term though a near-term bounce is needed to gain momentum to further go down towards the 0.68 handle. The commodities is giving mixed signals but it complements the New Zealand dollar since the Federal Reserve plans to implement several rate hikes before the year ends.
The pair USD/JPY sways within a tight range of 116.54 and 118.66 levels. If the market sustained the support level to be at 116.54, this means a consolidation of the price going upward from 101.18 level but it could further go towards 120.00 level. The main support is found at 114.73 level and a break lower than these psychological level completes the uptrend.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis: December 28, 2016
The pair continues to go downward from 0.7524 level. It rebounded to 0.7159 level but this is considered as consolidation of the decline. If the market was able to maintain the level at 1.7280 level, the decline would persist towards the next target at 0.7000 mark. However, if the pair break higher than the 0.7280 Resistance level, the downtrend is completely achieved.
The EUR/USD pair became somewhat active during the previous trading session after a lackluster performance during the past few days, and this is especially good news for traders who are waiting for any sign of market activity since the holiday season has caused the market liquidity to diminish. The currency pair was able to go beyond its daily price range of 30-40 pips, and the USDs recent price surge has caused the EUR/USD pair to plummet below 1.0400 points and even reached 1.0360 points. However, the negative pending home sales data from the US has caused the currency pair to go back above 1.0400 points.
As the new year starts and the holiday season comes to an end, the markets volatility and liquidity is expected to return, and liquidity levels could possibly go higher. However, the strength of the US dollar is not expected to be stalled anytime soon, and government leaders from both the UK and the European Union are now preparing for the onslaught of the Brexit process next year, which is expected to be very tedious for both regions. On the other hand, Germany will also be holding its elections next year, and the market will be closely monitoring Merkels performance before and during the elections. However, until such time that these things happen, market players should first monitor just how long will the USD be able to maintain its recent strong stance. For the EUR/USD pair, the currency pair is expected to consolidate with a bullish undertone as the market adjusts to the very disappointing pending home sales data from the US.
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 29, 2016
The USD was able to regain some of its lost strength during the earlier parts of yesterdays trading session, which was felt all throughout the market, and has also affected the sentiment of the sterling pound. The GBP then plummeted and the GBP/USD pair went way below 1.2200 points after almost two months as a result of a very disappointing home sales data. However, as the North American session commenced, the GBP/USD pair was able to surface over 1.2200 points and has hovered over this level for the rest of the trading session. But it still remains to be seen whether the currency pair would be able to deflect the effects of the USDs ever-growing strength.
The effects of the long and winding Brexit process is expected to be seen during the next several months since various government leaders from the UK and the EU is set to debate on how to go through with the process in general. These are expected to create a constant pressure for the sterling pound, and all reversions on the part of the GBP/USD could immediately be sold by bears, therefore making it hard for this currency pair to make any significant advancements in the coming months.
For todays trading session, since there are no major economic data which is set to be released from the UK region, the GBP/USD pair is more likely to encounter more consolidation with a bullish undertone, especially since the market is currently experiencing low volatility and liquidity due to the holiday season.
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: December 29, 2016
The USD/CAD pair continued to trade in an upward direction due to substantial support coming from the USD, which was basically the markets theme during yesterdays trading session. The currency pair was able to maintain its buoyancy in spite of the recent surge in oil prices. Market speculators are now stating that oil prices could be well on its way towards reaching its optimum price and once oil prices stop going in an upward direction, then this could put more pressure on the Canadian dollar, thereby inducing a strong uptrend on the USD/CAD pair.
The USD experienced a short correction during yesterdays session after the US home sales data came in at a disappointing reading of -2.5% which fell short of initial market expectations of 0.5%. Luckily, the market is now shifting its focus on the Feds rate hikes this 2017, particularly the pricing of these rate hikes. The strength of the USD is very evident as of late, since the lack of trading and relatively low market liquidity was unable to mask the dollars strong stance, as well as the CADs pointed weakness.
For todays trading session, there are no major economic data scheduled to be released from Canada, while the US is expected to release its weekly oil inventory data. Since the market is relatively thin due to the holiday season, expect an added consolidation for the USD/CAD with a bullish undertone.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: December 29, 2016
The dollar's strengthening influence many currencies on Wednesday. The project imposed by Trump about the increase in fiscal spending intended for the countrys economic growth and the recent data from Feds 2017 hike plan caused for a stronger stance over the USD.
Meanwhile, the EURUSD is unable to reacquire its gains yesterday. The euro was pushed towards the 1.0450 mark due to a renewed bout of selling amid the EU session. The sellers successfully break the level where it earned some energy to drive the price in a lower position.
As the pair pushed the level below 1.0400, bearish investors expanded its recent gains during the NA trading. As shown in the 1-hour chart, the price breaks the moving averages downwards.
The 200-EMA pointed northwards while the 50-EMA coupled with the 100-day moving averages headed to a lower area as indicated in the same time chart. Resistance touched the 1.0400 region, support settled within the range of 1.0350.
The MACD histogram rested in the centerline. The RSI moved out in the neutral zone and headed south where a present downward reading is confirmed.
According to forecast, the single European currency hovered in the downside. In case the price consolidated under the 1.0450 handle, the decline will continue reaching 1.0400 as it approach the area of 1.0350 .
AUD/USD Technical Analysis: December 29, 2016
The policy tightening of the Fed in 2017 and the recent positive data from the US weighed on the Australian dollar.
The bullishness tried to extend above the 0.7200 however it failed. The AUD/USD lose steam to surge and promptly reversed after it posted a daily high that comes in at 0.7220.
The AUD met a renewed offer on top of the 0.7200 region upon the downfall of the pair beyond the aforesaid level. The pair resumed its downward movement subsequent to the break that approaches its recent low in the 0.7159 area. According to the 4-hour chart, the price rebounded through the 50-EMA downwards and step aside from the MA technical indicators.
The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs plummeted as indicated in the same time chart. Resistance dominated the 0.7200 region, support settled in the 0.7150.
MACD weakened which confirmed strength for the sellers. The RSI shifted southwards, favoring a downward momentum.
According to forecast, the bearish slope prevailed on Wednesday. Should the price focused on the support level below 0.7200, the downward trajectory will continue in the short term. The next target is 0.7100 and 0.7150.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: December 29, 2016
The British currency weighed down by major economic events which include renewed hard Brexit fears together with the UK Mortgage Approvals data that presented lesser than expected result.
Meanwhile, the 1.23 handle was unable to regain after series of attempts. The price rebounded the level and pointed southwards. The greenbacks started to lure buyers interest generally. The cable pair moved near the 1.22 support before the New York session.
As indicated in the 1-hour chart, the price rebounded against the 100-EMA and persist to go southwards as it breaks the 50-EMA towards a lower point. Moving averages resumed its bearish trend as shown in the same price chart. Resistance highlighted the 1.2300 region, support touched the 1.2200 level.
The MACD histogram is consistent to be on the same level which implies sellers strength. RSI hovered in the oversold territory.
The forecast showed that a move below the 1.22 level would trigger for another downside pressure. Sellers are able to lead the sterling under the 1.2150 mark.
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: January 4, 2017
The USD/CAD was one of the few currency pairs which benefited from the dollar index surge, as well as the recent drop in crude oil prices during yesterdays trading session, which was the result of the carrying out of the recent agreements between oil production firms. The USD/CAD pair continued to exhibit a somewhat circumspect trading in spite of the dollar strength and has also limited itself to a tight trading range yesterday. The USD/CAD pair made a short-term drop at just below 1.3400 points but eventually reverted back to due an onslaught in demand and is now currently hovering at just below the 1.3450 trading range. The currency pair is expected to increase its strength as the day progresses, especially since majority of traders are now finishing off the holiday season and are now coming back to their trading desks. Even if the increase in the dollar index is not expected to drop anytime soon, its effect on the currency pair is expected to be somewhat subdued since the effect of the dollar surge could be offset by the recent increase in oil prices.
For todays trading session, there are no major economic news releases from both Canada and US, and if the USDs strength continues to go across the board, then the USD/CAD could possibly re-test the 1.3500 levels soon.
USD/CAD Technical Analysis: January 4, 2017
The trading session for the pair USD/CAD was not smooth on Tuesday with traders returning from Holiday. Currently the pair is being tested on 1.34 support level while the resistance level is found higher than the 1.35 level. The long-term uptrend may persist if the trend yesterday keeps up but this is not favorable for the Canadian dollar. The psychological levels could continue towards the 1.36 level.
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 4, 2017
In spite of the recent surge of the US dollar, the sterling pound was unaffected by the increase in the dollar index and was able to hold on its own. The GBP was able to manage the surge in the USD, thanks to the highly positive economic data from the UK which puts into view that the Brexit process might not be so bad after all and might even help with regards to the bolstering of the UK economy as long as it maintains its free access on the entirety of EU-based markets.
The Manufacturing PMI data from the UK was released yesterday and came in at an impressive reading of 56.1, going way beyond the initial market expectations of 53.3 and therefore helped in cementing the positive value of the sterling pound. One of the reasons why the GBP was able to withstand the increasing strength of the USD is that the market generally expects the worst economic readings from the UK as part of the repercussions of the Brexit process, but the economic data from the region comes out as increasingly positive. However, it still stands that the actual Brexit process has yet to begin, and the question still remains as to whether the UK will still be able to have continuously free market access to the EU markets after the said process.
For todays trading session, the market is expecting the release of the construction PMI data from the UK, and since the dollar index is expected to retain its strength for today, it is important that this data comes out as positive since this will steer the general direction of the sterling pound. However, if the data comes out as negative, then the GBP/USD pair could possibly plummet to way below 1.2200 points.
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 5, 2017
The USD has been exhibiting corrections across the market during the start of todays trading session, causing the EUR/USD pair to break through 1.0500 before eventually settling at 1.0525 points, with the outlook for the currency pair looking generally positive for todays session. The market is expected to go through a lot of market volatility during the next few days since there are a number of major economic news releases set to be released in the coming days. However, it is still unclear whether the USD would be able to sustain its corrections in the next few days.
Since there were no economic data released during the first few hours of the previous trading session, the market has shifted its focus on the minutes of the FOMC meeting. Once the minutes were released, however, the USD sustained damages since the minutes did not have any clear hawkish stances. This has caused the EUR/USD to hit 1.0500 and then went even lower as the USD quickly recovered. The currency pair has since then been regaining its footing after the USD lost some of its strength.
For todays trading session, the major economic news releases include the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data, a precursor to the NFP data which is set to be released during tomorrows trading session. The Unemployment Claims data as well as the Non-Manufacturing PMI data will be closely monitored by the majority of market players, since these are expected to continue the generally positive economic trend seen in the US lately. A positive reading from this particular set of data could also become determinants of whether the next interest rate hike from Fed would come earlier, therefore increasing the frequency of hikes. However, if the data comes out as negative, then the USD could be subject to more corrections prior to the release of the NFP economic data.
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: January 5, 2017
The USD/CAD pair exhibited a significantly large correction during yesterdays trading session after the USD lost some of its value due to the absence of a hawkish undertone on the minutes of the FOMC meeting which was released yesterday. The USD/CAD only weakened further since it had already failed to reach the higher trading regions. The USD/CAD pair is now sitting just over the 1.3300 trading region.
Since oil prices have been generally positive during the past few days, the market expects that its effect would be felt in the current value of the CAD as well, and true enough, the currency pair dropped yesterday while the market went into a lull. The Canadian dollar then extended its losses after the release of the FOMC minutes, which triggered the weakening of the USD and therefore increased the downward pressure on the USD/CAD pair.
There are no major economic news releases from the Canadian economy for todays session. However, the US is expecting to release a number of major data, including the Unemployment Claims data, and the ADP employment report. These data are determinant of whether the market would experience added volatility or otherwise, depending on the readings. The US will also be releasing the NFP report tomorrow, which is considered as a critical determinant of market volatility. Traders are encouraged to evaluate the effects of these news releases on the currency pair before trading in on the USD/CAD.
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 5, 2017
The GBP/USD significantly increased in value during the previous trading session after the USD dropped following the release of the latest FOMC meeting minutes. The market was somewhat docile during the rest of yesterdays session but immediately picked up after the release of the minutes during the North American session yesterday, and has caused the USD to undergo corrections across the board.
However, the reaction of the GBP/USD pair to this phenomenon is somewhat docile compared to other USD-related currency pairs, and this is expected to keep the bulls on their toes. Initially, the GBP/USD pair was expected to rise exponentially since the UK construction PMI data clocked in a highly positive reading and exceeded its market expectations of 54.2, and the FOMC minutes lacked the expected hawkishness from the market. But the reason why this currency pairs growth was significantly limited is that the various risks and uncertainties surrounding the Brexit process continues to dog a lot of traders due to the general confusion within this issue. This is why a number of speculators are saying that the GBP/USD would be receiving the shorter end of the stick once the USD regains its strength.
Although the UK is not expected to release any economic data for today, the US will be releasing a number of important economic data along with the highly essential NFP report, which is expected to determine the overall market sentiment for the rest of the month. If these set of data comes out as positive, then the USD could possibly rebound and could be sustained until the end of January.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: January 5, 2017
The positive data from the Euro zone supported the single European currency which further strengthened versus its US peer. Based on the EU statistical data, the inflation rate of the European countries is fast growing. While the favorable Markit Services and Composite PMIs of France and Germany further reinforced the EUR.
Technically, the major pair maintained a mid-term downward channel within a lower boundary. However, the 4-hour chart showed a limited upside potential. The Fiber reversed some of its losses during the trades on Wednesday. The buyers drove the prices towards the 1.0450 level where an upward impetus gradually disappear in the middle session of the EU hours. After reaching the aforesaid level, euro return on its recent region where it stayed.
The 50-EMA is in a neutral position and have been tested by the price in the mentioned time frame accordingly, while the 200 and 100-EMAs headed downwards.
The EUR/USD hovered under the moving averages as the level of resistance touched the 1.0450 and support entered at 1.0400.
The MACD histogram increased which indicated a weak position for sellers. RSI moved in the neutral zone and departed from the oversold area.
As it was mentioned in the forecast, the EUR is expected to kept intact in the pressured area but recovered the 1.0500 barrier. Buyers are able to lead the pair towards 1.0550. A break down from the 1.0400 handle will cause weakness for the EURUSD as well. The initial target of the sellers is 1.0350.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: January 5, 2017
The recent data from the United Kingdom presented positive figures which caused for the British currency to recover. On the other hand, statistics for Consumer Credit, Construction PMI, and Mortgage Approvals showed better-than-expected results despite of the Brexit referendum.
As the pound recovered, it remained to be weak versus its American counterpart and traded under the 1.2300 level on Wednesday.
The traders drove the price upwards during the early trades. The cable pair had its recovery in the 1.2285 region where an upward trajectory ran out of stream in the post-EU opening. As it was shown in the 4-hour chart the price has tested the 50-EMA yesterday in the midst of the Asian session. The price was unable to recover the level and continued to sit behind the moving averages as indicated in the same trading chart. Moving averages (50, 100 and 200) remained to be bearish. Resistance jump in at 1.2300, support touched the 1.2200 handle.
The MACD histogram lies at the center point. As it approached the negative area, sellers strength will grow but an entry within the positive zone will indicate buyers ability to dominate the market. The RSI stayed in the neutral territory.
Technical indicators presented a bearish sentiment. The initial target is 1.2200, in case the price consolidates below the primary target, the bearishness may extend towards the 1.2100 region. Furthermore, the continuous easing of the dollar would cause the GBP/USD to resume its 2-month low recovery. In order for the downward pressure to neutralize, buyers should regain the 1.2300 mark.
USD/CAD Technical Analysis: January 5, 2017
The positive sentiment of the oil market yesterday brought favorable impact on commodity currencies including the Canadian dollar.
The U.S dollar recovered in the Asian hours and slowed down within the 1.3470 range when the commodity-linked pair move towards fresh offers as it continued to fell under the 1.3400 support during the onset of EU trades.
Sellers were able to resume their gains amid the European session and pointed to the 1.3260 region. The downward pressure weakened near the 1.3300 while the price made a reversal around the aforesaid level. The price further broke the 200 and 100-EMAs in a descending manner as shown in the 4-hour chart. The 100 and 50-EMAs maneuvered towards a higher position while the 200-EMA is trending neutral. Resistance took the 1.3400 level, support highlighted the 1.3330 mark.
MACD indicator declined which confirmed strength for the sellers. RSI kept intact around the oversold zone.
In case the price had directed below the 1.3330 region, it will open an opportunity for the sellers to continue a short-term downward trend. The next probable target of the sellers are the 1.3190 and 1.3260 marks. The USD/CAD is able to bounce off few of its losses if it moves back on top of the 1.3330.
NZD/USD Technical Analysis: January 5, 2017
The New Zealand dollar slumped yesterday but rebounded for support in the afternoon. The 0.70 level shows a strong resistance and the exhaustive candle seen gives a selling opportunity that is formerly a downtrend for long-term. The pair is considered to be oversold that makes consolidation good or a few rebound. The New Zealand dollar seems to decline in the long run with the target near the 0.68 handle.
GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: January 5, 2017
The British pound surged against Japanese yen on yesterdays trading session in the midst of weak volatility in the market. This is already expected with traders coming back after the holiday.
The psychological level is seen lower than the 140 mark.The uptrend for long-term may persist with a possibility for chances of reversal. The session could stay calm in the next days to come thus, the traders should be patient.
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: January 5, 2017
Yen was under pressure in morning trading session yesterday even though the results of Manufacturing PMI were positive. This was because of the European equity market attributed subtle and cautious sentiment that swayed the risk appetite supporting yen being a safe haven currency in the afternoon. As for U.S. Treasury bond yields, its retracement has influenced the U.S. dollars to remain low.
The pair USD/JPY maintained neutral with bullish tone. The pair was not able to maintain the recovery in Asian trading session when a string psychological level was seen at 118.00 mark and retreated. Not long after, the level moved wiping out gains.
The pair has been tested twice throughout the day and failed to surpassed its psychological levels in the 50-EMA. Both 100-EMA and 200-EMA were directed upward while the 50-EMA remained neutral. Its seems that the price will remain to sway higher than the moving averages for the day. The Resistance level is seen at 118.0 level while the support posited at 117.00 mark.
The MACD showed an uptrend while the RSI entered the neutral area coming from the Overvalued area. The price trend could further go up advancing towards the 118.00 level when the buyers maintain its lead in the market with the next target at 119.00 level.
The USD/CAD pair continued to exhibit a dismal trading activity during the previous session after it went below 1.3200 for a brief period before incurring a small reversion, The pronounced weakness in this particular currency pair was mainly due to the USDs recent drop in value during the previous trading sessions. This, along with the significant increase in market volatility, has shown that market investors and traders are now returning from their respective holidays.
The Canadian dollar has been receiving additional support from crude oil prices, which is currently still maintaining its strong stance. This is why the USD/CADs movement is now largely influenced by dollar movement. Since the USD is now relatively weaker as compared to the past sessions, the USD/CADs value plummeted to below 1.3200, but was immediately faced with a lot of buying pressure, thereby causing the pair to revert back towards 1.3250 points.
For todays market trading session, both the Canadian and US economies are set to release a large volume of economic data, among them the Canadian employment change data, unemployment rate data, and trade balance data, as well as the NFP report, unemployment rate data, and average earnings from the US economy. As such, the USD/CAD is expected to undergo a lot of market volatility. The USD/CAD pair is expected to continue its upward trend, and could possibly go through 1.3000 points.
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 6, 2017
The GBP/USD pair continued increasing in value during the previous trading session. The reaction of the sterling pound to the recent market activity has been somewhat muted compared to other currency pairs. However, it still continues to trade in accordance to the current market trends. The past trading sessions saw a highly-volatile USD, and this has been reflected in the GBP/USD pair as well. The currency pair was able to stay just over 1.2300 and just below 1.2400 points due to the recent corrections in the US dollar.
The GBP/USD recent surge in value was mostly due to the generally upbeat data coming from the UK recently, with the UK services PMI data coming in at 56.2, thoroughly exceeding initial market expectations. This positive data has triggered the pair to move beyond 1.2300 points, and as the USD weakened during the North American session, the GBP/USD pair was able to go further towards 1.2400 points.
For todays trading session, there are no major economic data scheduled to be released from the UK. However, the US is set to release its unemployment rate and average earnings data, as well as the highly-anticipated NFP report. If these set of data comes out lower than expected, then this could cause delays in the Feds rate hikes, thereby causing the GBP/USD pair to possibly move towards 1.2500 points. Otherwise, then the pair could possibly revert back to 1.2300 once the USD regains its strength due to the upbeat economic data coming from the US.
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 6, 2017
The EUR/USD pair was subject to extremely high market volatility during yesterdays trading session, which signals that the majority of market players have now returned to the market after the holiday season. The USDs correction, which started after the FOMC released a less hawkish statement, continued all throughout yesterdays Tokyo session. However, once the European session commenced, the USD was able to bounce back and regain its previous strength, causing the EUR/USD pair to plummet through 1.0500 points from its recent value of 1.0575. But once the New York session opened, the EUR/USD pair again bounced back from its loss as the USD again experienced a drop in its strength, thereby putting upward pressure on the currency pair and pushing it over 1.0500 and is now resting just below 1.0600 points.
As based on the minutes of the FOMC meeting, although the minutes lacked the hawkishness that the market initially expected, it has nevertheless shown that there could be at least 2-3 interest rate hikes expected from the central bank this year. Market analysts are speculating that this sudden volatility in the financial market is merely a foreshadowing of the large volume of economic data which is set to be released today.
For todays trading session, there are no scheduled economic data release from the European Union. However, the US will be releasing its highly critical NFP report, as well as the average earnings report and unemployment rate data. If these data comes out as positive, then the market could possibly again see a hike in the value of the USD. The EUR/USD pair could possibly reach 1.0700 points since traders and investors are expecting a generally positive economic data from the US, which could then compel the Fed to increase the frequency of their future rate hikes.
The AUD/USD build a bearish pattern before the opening of European trading. While, a recovery rally within the 0.7150 lack few pips under the level 0.7350. Sellers were able to lead the price through the range of 0.7300 where they regained some steam to continue the interrupted movement.
The price upwardly pushed the 50 and 100-EMAs displayed in the 4-hour chart. The Aussie lose its value and turn back to the 100-EMA. The 100 and 200-EMAs maintained a lowering position and the 50-EMA is in a flat line. Resistance lies at 0.7300, support is at 0.7250.
MACD increase which confirmed strength for the buyers. RSI holds the oversold territory.
The mid-term view for the Australian dollar seems bearish. It is further expected that the pair is possible to move ahead the 0.7200 and 0.7250.
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 6, 2017
The EUR/USD pair was subject to extremely high market volatility during yesterdays trading session, which signals that the majority of market players have now returned to the market after the holiday season. The USDs correction, which started after the FOMC released a less hawkish statement, continued all throughout yesterdays Tokyo session. However, once the European session commenced, the USD was able to bounce back and regain its previous strength, causing the EUR/USD pair to plummet through 1.0500 points from its recent value of 1.0575. But once the New York session opened, the EUR/USD pair again bounced back from its loss as the USD again experienced a drop in its strength, thereby putting upward pressure on the currency pair and pushing it over 1.0500 and is now resting just below 1.0600 points.
As based on the minutes of the FOMC meeting, although the minutes lacked the hawkishness that the market initially expected, it has nevertheless shown that there could be at least 2-3 interest rate hikes expected from the central bank this year. Market analysts are speculating that this sudden volatility in the financial market is merely a foreshadowing of the large volume of economic data which is set to be released today.
For todays trading session, there are no scheduled economic data release from the European Union. However, the US will be releasing its highly critical NFP report, as well as the average earnings report and unemployment rate data. If these data comes out as positive, then the market could possibly again see a hike in the value of the USD. The EUR/USD pair could possibly reach 1.0700 points since traders and investors are expecting a generally positive economic data from the US, which could then compel the Fed to increase the frequency of their future rate hikes.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: January 6, 2017
Despite the soft remarks from the Fed, the USD seems weak versus the pound which continued to strengthen. Moreover, the British currency gained support from the favorable data of the PMI Services. The GBP established a bearish sentiment upon the interruption of its recovery within the 1.2361 level.
The cable pair use up the renewed offers changed its trend and declined in the 1.2269 as Asian session closes.
After posting its session lows, the buyers regained some of its losses and reclaim the predetermined level 1.2300.
According to the 4-hour chart, the price surpasses the 50-EMA upwards and test the 100-EMA as well. The GBPUSD is sandwiched between the 100 and 50-EMA. All moving averages moved lower as shown in the same trading chart. The resistance of the pair is seen at the 1.2300 region, support came in at 1.2200.
The MACD indicator lies in the centerline. If the histogram hovered in the negative zone, sellers strength will improve, while an entry to the positive territory will allow for the buyer to take over the market. The RSI stayed in the neutral area.
Subsequent to the recovery of the pair, it preserved a bearish tone indicated in the 4-hour chart. Sellers aim to reach the 1.2200 and 1.2250 areas.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: January 6, 2017
The single European currency shifted into a negative stance before the countrys Producer Price Index came in yesterday. The euro showed higher-than-expected results but failed to extend its value. Due to some inadequacy of solid data from the euro zone, traders draw their attention towards the American calendar. According to reports, the United States is anticipated to put out diverse reports about the labor market namely ADP Employment Change and US Initial Jobless Claims. On the other hand, the Markit Composite PMI is also included in the checklist.
The EUR/USD begin with a strong note on Thursday and rack up towards the 1.0574 where it found a hurdle and change into bearish.
The EUR rebounded the mark and pointed downwards. The sellers pushed the 1.0550 level in the European early trades, it further tested the 1.0500 in the middle session of Europe.
Before the outset of the NY session, the pair decline as the bears entered the area of 1.0450
As shown in the 4-hour chart, the price takes out the 100 and 50-EMAs upwards while the 200-day moving averages were tested amid the morning trading.
The euro was unable to regain the bearish 200-EMA and had a trend reversal in the post-EU opening. The 200 and 100-EMAs descended, the 50-EMA was neutral. Resistance took the 1.0500 handle, support is seen at 1.0450.
The MACD indicator jumps in the positive territory. In case the histogram hovered in that position, buyers will strengthen. The RSI readings interpreted an overvalued condition.
The bearish tone is kept intact. A downward movement towards the 1.0400 and 1.0450 marks is highly anticipated. But an uptrend at 1.0550 would cause the present selling pressure to neutralize. The pair may expand its recovery up to the region of 1.0650.
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: January 6, 2017
The U.S. dollar depreciates as the uncertainty on the next Fed rate hike escalates. The pair USD/JPY was in tension with selling pressure on Thursday even though sellers lead the market pushing the price lower during the Asian session. The downtrend halts at 116.00 as it lost its impetus to go lower and went back to its opening price instead.
The pair demonstrates a bearish tone despite its recovery in the market. A break was seen in both 100-EMA and 200-EMA that shifted its direction upwards while the 50-EMA sustained its neutral position. The Resistance level was seen at 117.00 while the support levels was posited at 116.00 mark. The MACD moved within the Negative area indicating sellers gaining strength while the RSI reading was found in the oversold area.
The trend shows a bullish tone but its is anticipated for the price to full recovery once the pair go even higher than the Resistance level of 117.00 mark. Buyers may push it higher towards the 118.00 and 119.00 levels. However, if buyers fail to do so, the price could move towards the 115.00 mark.
The USD/CAD has recently been in a reticent mood during the past few trading sessions, and analysts are speculating that the USD/CAD pair could possibly be in for a good trading session since oil prices have now become buoyant and is expected to remain buoyant since the cutbacks in the production of oil are expected to be implemented anytime soon, thereby spelling good news for the Canadian dollar. The Canadian trade balance data as well as the employment change data also came out exceeding initial investor expectations, and this means that the CAD would be receiving substantial support both in the long term and short term, and the Canadian dollars value could be well on its way to increasing.
In a much more normal market setting, a scenario such as this would automatically lead to a correction in the USD/CAD. However, the USD is also gaining strength alongside the CAD, and this is expected to offset if not completely counter the effects of the recent rise in the value of the Canadian dollar. This situation is then expected to keep the pair within a tight trading range in the short term period. Fridays session was a testament to this scenario, as the currency pair made a short drop at 1.3200 points but immediately went up above 1.3200 after the release of the economic data from the regions before finally settling just below 1.3250 points. There are no expected economic data to be released from both the Canadian and US economy for today, and this could help the USD/CAD to extend its gains towards 1.3300 points.
A lot of analysts have been initially saying that the GBP/USD pair will be the currency most likely to experience the majority of the adverse effects of the recent surge in the USDs value, especially since there is a lot of confusion and discussion going on with regards to the provisions of the Brexit process, particularly with its stakeholders, who all have to step up their game in the next two years. This is why the GBP/USD pair has recently become more susceptible than ever, and traders are advised against selling any bounces in the GBP/USD pair. The downward trend in this particular currency pair is very evident, since its bounces have been very few and far in between, with deep corrections dogging the pairs direction.
Fridays session proved this particular downtrend in the pair, since the market has seen the currency pair stop its consolidation and plummeted through 1.2400 points and eventually through 1.2300 points. The NFP report as well as the average wages data from the US also came in last Friday, with the data showing an increase in average wages, thereby increasing chances that the Federal Reserve would be soon stating its next interest rate hike. The Scottish Prime Minister has also released some comments over the weekend, saying that Scotland would most likely undergo yet another vote with regards to Scexit, or Scottish independence from the UK. During the controversial Brexit vote, it can be recalled that Scotland initially voted to remain in the European Union but eventually had to concede after majority of the UK states voted to exit from the EU. This is only one the many issues surrounding the Brexit process, and will be incessantly putting the sterling pound in great risk.
There are no major economic data expected today from both the UK and the US, and the market is expected to be continuously dominated by the existing market trends for todays trading session,and the USD strength is expected to be the driving force behind the market for today.