G-7 Summit Pushes Through Amid Trade and Climate Concerns
Amidst the ongoing G-7 summit in Italy, US President Donald Trump has stated via his adviser that he currently has no plans on backing down with regards to his Russian sanctions, thereby quelling any speculations that the US government might be toning down its stance towards Russia. On the other hand, Trump has left a slew of confused allies as he still refuses to confirm whether he will be eradicating the 2015 Paris climate agreement altogether, a move which has been wholly supported by a lot of European nations. The European Council has already stated that this two-day G-7 Summit could possibly be the most challenging summit in years. The summit will have its culmination this coming Saturday.
EU in Need of Additional ECB Stimulus, Says Draghi
ECB President Mario Draghi stressed in a statement made last Monday that the eurozone is still in need of more monetary stimulus from the central bank in spite of the regions apparent economic recovery. Draghi warned that the underlying inflation in the EU economy minus highly volatile food and energy prices are still too insignificant for the ECB to make any actual adjustments with regards to its current monetary policy. The central bank is currently facing mounting pressure from several EU politicians as they call for the ECB to instigate a full-on policy reversal as the European Union enters a new era of increased inflation rates and a recovering economic status.
The negotiated wages in Germany climbed by 2.8 percent in the first quarter which has significantly improved than the previous year according to the data released on Tuesday. These wages comprise of basic pay, one transaction settlement, yearly bonuses and back remuneration from salary deals. An estimated 17 million workers in Germany from companies who transact every one to two years.
In comparison, the present 2.8 percent growth from January to March is more than the long-term average of 2.5 percent than the last quarter of 2016. It also ascended at a faster rate than the 2.5 percent for the past five years indicating a rise in wage growth from a 2.2 percent elevation in the fourth quarter last year. It exceeded that increase in consumer costs augmenting by 1.9 percent in the same period implying that households have more disposable income amid a rising inflation.
The stock markets of Asia were unsteady on Tuesday since investors hovered in the sideline prior the publication of the raft of economic statistics scheduled this week. While, the Taipei market coupled with Shanghai, Hong Kong are not in operation due to a holiday.
Moreover, the Nikkei 225 of Tokyo declined by 0.5 percent to 19,576.19, seeing the Kospi of South Korea to plunged to 0.6 percent to 2,338.21, S&P/ASX 200 of Australia lower down by 0.1 percent to 5,701.60. Likewise, Singaporean market had a dip along with the Philippines and New Zealand but the Indonesian benchmark surge.
Jingyi Pan, a market strategist at IG based in Singapore, said that the Asian house market is projected to maintain its thin volumes which start in the countries of China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan which are all closed in consideration of the market holiday.
The data were to be issued this week would likely offer some hints for the investors about the current state of the international economy. Investors anticipate for the consumer confidence index along with the eurozone business data later this day.
On the energy sector, the benchmark for US crude dropped 4 cents up to $49.76 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract had increased by 90 cents up until $49.80 per barrel yesterday. The Brent crude further decreased by 20 cents till $52.44/barrel in London.
The Australian dollar declined during the Tuesday trading session. Enough supportive is found close to the 0.74 region to reverse the trend and raise the price much higher. If the bullish pressure is sustained A break higher than the 0.7450 level will bring the price up towards the 0.75 level which was resistive before.
It wont take long before the prices to go up and further be supported by the gold market with chances to go higher also when the risk on rally starts. However, if the gold market is used as a safety net instead, the market would fear trading and the will stagnant the Australian dollar. Nonetheless, there is still a chance to move higher when the market condition gets better.
The Aussie is gaining momentum over the New Zealand dollar which is most of the time correlated to. The Kiwi is also getting stronger going forward since there is a strong bullish tension in the market. It is much more favored in the market although both will most likely head to the same direction.
If the price breaks lower than the 0.74 level, this would not be a good sign and will affect the Australian dollar move downward. Traders should expect high volatility in the market but would not be different in the AUD/USD pair where it seems that there is an endless loop in the price trend. Hence, traders should look closely to stop losses since there will be high volatility in the market.
The US Federal Reserve is more than ready to raise its interest rates this coming June, but the possibility of the Congress rattling up the markets by slowing down progress on increasing the debt ceiling of the US economy has cast a shadow of doubt on the Feds next scheduled rate hike on September. Prior to this development, the Fed has been saying that they are currently planning to implement two more rate hikes before the year ends, but has now reverted to saying that the third rate hike for year might be in for some delays if the market gets shaken by possible disagreements on fiscal policies.
Manufacturing Activity of China Kept Unchanged in May
Based on the data issued on Wednesday, the growth in the manufacturing activity of China was unchanged in the previous month and on the other hand, the services sector revived. This indicates that the Chinese economy slowed down.
The manufacturing purchasing' managers index earned 51.2 for this month which is the same with April result, says by the National Bureau of Statistics. The PMI utilizes a 100-point scale and a 50 mark that divides contraction against the expansion, it generally serves as an early indicator for China. The struggling factory sector had 10-month consecutive increase as it plays an important part in the Chinese economy while employing a heap of laborers.
A total of 3,000 manufacturers were polled and learned that export orders surge, however, the new orders, in general, remained steady and the global demand should perk up instead of the domestic demand so the index could creep higher. According to further reports, the factory output slid while the job rate accelerated.
Moreover, the official non-manufacturing PMI bounced back to 54.5 on the back of its six-month decline of 54.0 in the past, suggesting an improved strength for the services industry of the worlds second largest economy.
The economic growth of the Republic weakened in 2016 which is the slowest pace for almost 30 years. Nevertheless, in the latest quarter, it was able to gain 6.9 percent due to government expenditures along with the booming of the debt-fueled real estate. The growth is predicted to be unprogressive for the next months with a 6.5 percent expansion target of the government.
June 1, 2017
Indias Economic Growth Lose Steam due to Notes Ban
The economy of the seventh-largest country in the world experienced a steep decline in the first quarter of the year. Reflecting the Novembers ban implemented by the countrys Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, triggered by the shortage of cash because this event brought a significant impact in the following months. The economy strengthened by 6.1 percent during the first three months of 2017 versus the same period in 2016. It further compared with the 7 percent increase gained amid last quarter, wherein the Indias leader announced his plan of radical demonetization.
The issued data on Wednesday officially acknowledges the effect of stripping the nations currency towards the economic activity of India.
As the financial year ended in March, the Indian economy acquired by 7.1 percent growth in contrast with the 8 percent gained in the same period and 7.5 percent in March 2015. The downturn highlights the ongoing dilemmas confronted by Modi, elected three years ago affirming for the revival of the country as well as generating more jobs for the young people
The construction industry shrunk by 3.7 percent that pulled the economy to its lowest level. While real estate, financial and professional services expanded by 2.2 percent as shown in the report. The muted private sector activity though was driven by the sudden surge in government activities under defense, public administration, and others gaining 17 percent on year.
The U.S. economy grows at a steady but slow rate in the second quarter of the year based on the regional economic survey of the Federal Reserve. The sluggish pace also supports the inflation as described by some enterprises.
Rates are about to be tightened as the economy progresses after a long hiatus of almost a decade holding rate close to zero following the financial crisis. Employment and wages also grew but at an average pace with the U.S. unemployment rate measured at 4.4 percent at a 10-year low. Although the labor market is see to tighten, there are signals implying the need for a rate hike.
Commodity markets particularly lumber and steel are increasing its prices for some manufacturers and the construction sector while other divisions are easing their costs. The policymakers are anticipated to raise its rates in the next policy meeting this June.
Indian Economy Boost by 7.2 percent, World Bank Says
Apparently, India was able to recover from the negative effects brought by the demonetization as the World Bank estimated a 7.2 percent strong growth for the Indian economy, compared with 6.8 percent gained in 2016.
According to an official from the said international financial institution, they revised its projections regarding Indias improvement with 0.4 percentage points versus forecast made in January, however, the country still wear the crown as the fastest major economy to grow among other countries around the world. While the growth forecast for China remained steady at 6.5 percent for this year and 6.3 percent for the upcoming 2018 and 2019.
Based from the most recent Global Economic Prospects of World Bank, projected growth for India is 7.5 percent by the year 2018 and 7.7 percent for the following year, 2019.
In both years, the assessment was down to 0.3 percent and 0.1 percent points in comparison to predictions in the first month of the year.
Given that increase towards the Indias economy in FY2017 is roughly lower than the previous predictions that reflect indicates a sustained resurgence in the private investment sector as foreseen back then.
South Korea Began Stimulus Fiscal package of $10 billion for Job Sector
South Korea will release a stimulus package worth 11.2 trillion won equivalent to $10 billion U.S. dollars on Monday. This will support social welfare subsidy and part of methods for achieving the pledge of President Moon Jae-in to generate 810,000 jobs in the public sector. It is the first supplementary budget for work sector according to the countrys chief of budget Park Chun-sup.
In particular, about 5.4 trillion won is allotted for social welfare jobs such as educators, firefighters, postal employees as stated by the finance ministry while 2.3 trillion won will fund financial aid for maternity leave and medical assistance for elderlies. Overall, It is anticipated to increase 71,000 jobs for the public sector and 15,000 jobs for the private sector.
This strategy is anticipated to stimulate economic growth by 0.2 percent for the year and augment the 2017 outlook from 2.6 percent. It is also supposed to boost both income and consumption as disposable household income dropped by 1.1 percent in the fourth quarter while private consumption rose by 0.4 percent but is still lower than the overall economic growth.
US unemployment rates fell to its lowest levels reached within a 16-year period last May/ Market investors took this as a sign that the ever slow-paced US economic expansion has already reached a whole new level that has made it exceptionally hard for business to score workers with suitable working experiences. The countrys jobless rate is currently at 4.3%, which is its lowest point reached since May 2001 and is just under the level it reached during the 2001-2007 economic expansion period. On the other hand, hiring rates have posted a significant decline at a seasonally-adjusted jobs record of 138,000 from last month, which makes up about two-thirds of the recorded growth rate for the entirety of 2016.
Services sector activity of the United States softened last month due to downswing in factory orders, however, increase in jobs has reached its 2-year high further reflected a protracted improvement in the labor market amid downturn in jobs growth in May.
Moderation in the tertiary sector of industry coupled with further data released on yesterday showed manufactured orders fell in April. The initial slump occurred in five months as the output of laborers remained steady in Q1 which implies a tighter range for a rapid economic expansion.
The non-manufacturing business activity index dropped six-tenths percentage point which accounts to 56.9 reading. A reading on top of 50 would mean a two-third increase in the U.S. economic activity.
According to reports, new orders of services industry loss 5.5 percentage points in April. The costs of products and services under non-manufacturing industries descended on the back of its growth for the past 13 consecutive months. Nevertheless, the gauge of service sector employment boost by 6.4 percent near its highest level recorded in July 2015, showing stability for the labor market as the nonfarm payrolls gained 138,000 previously and 174,00 in April.
The value for price paid dive could probably lure the attention of some officials of the Fed Reserve on the meeting dated June 13-14 to discuss the monetary policy.
The central bank of the United States is predicted to increase its benchmark by 25 basis point during the session.
Based on the forecast of the EY Scottish item club that the GDP growth will be weak falling below expectation with 0.9% growth this year where a half of it is expected for the Britain and will predominantly hit the retail sector. It is anticipated to fall by 0.1% this year and will decrease in a bigger number by 0.5% and 0.3% in 2018 and 2019 respectively.
Consumers will be greatly pressured from this which will increase by 1% in 2017 and below 1% in the succeeding years until 2020 while the employment is assumed to drop by fall this year.
On the other hand, the manufacturing sector will rise following the overall economy for the first time since 4 years ago, because of higher demand and depreciation of sterling which will boost exports.
Overall, the Scottish economy is foreseen to have a sluggish growth than the Britain by 0.7% in 2018 before gaining its momentum again to reach 1.4% growth within this decade.
World Bank Predicts Seven-Year High for 2018 Global Economic Growth
In a statement made last Sunday, the World Bank predicted that a possible correction in trade growth stemming from post-crisis lows might be able to help strengthen the international economy and enable a seven-year high for next years economic growth status. However, the bank also stressed that there are certain threats to the emerging markets niche, including a fast-expanding wealth economy, which could derail the predicted growth rate for the economy. The financial institution said that international economic growth could possibly reach 2.9% in 2018 as compared to this years mere 2.7%. Price stability in commodity prices has helped emerging markets out of its two-year slump, while several countries around the world are finally showing signs of improvement following a large-scale financial crisis.
The European Central Bank decided to loosen its monetary policy on Thursday but indicated that it further needs some support from the central bank amid increasing growth.
Mario Draghi, ECB president, is very cautious in his announcement regarding the withdrawal stimulus.
During the meeting held on Thursday which is accompanied by 25 members of the council, the bank kept its interest rates and bond-purchase stimulus program steady.
The governing council settled small adjustments towards the 19 emerging countries that utilizes the European currency by stating that interest rates could probably move lower. While Draghi issued another significant change as he described that risk to growth is currently broadly balanced, the tweak was announced during the April wherein risk are said to "tilted to the downside."
Carsten Brzeski, analyst at ING-DiBa, allegorize the banks statement to a babys first step intended to taper the stimulus effort. The financial institution preserved its bond-buying program at 60 billion euros ($67 billion) each month which will last this year or longer.
Moreover, ECB officials were in a stew for the markets response to the untimely notice that the stimulus will end as the rates will climb higher, undermining the effects.
On Friday, the British pound slumped following vague results without a particular party that dominated that election. Hence, investors are trying to weigh on risks including both event in the United States and Europe. As a result, the cable dropped by 2 percent amid the political problem that could hamper the Brexit talks and causing more uncertainty which will begin in more than a week.
Yields on 10-year gilt dropped by 3 basis points to 1.00 percent while the the FTSE futures recovered as it gained 0.2 percent bringing hopes up to economic progress. The e-mini futures for the S&P 500 has a lesser impact as it increase by 0.1 percent.
The single currency slid overnight following the announcement of ECB forecast to ease inflation but did not talked to tune down the massive bond-buying campaign pushing bond yields to multi-month lows. Its effect in the global investment market can not be defined as it represents just 2.5 percent of world GDP.
On Friday, the British pound slumped following vague results without a particular party that dominated that election. Hence, investors are trying to weigh on risks including both event in the United States and Europe. As a result, the cable dropped by 2 percent amid the political problem that could hamper the Brexit talks and causing more uncertainty which will begin in more than a week.
Yields on 10-year gilt dropped by 3 basis points to 1.00 percent while the the FTSE futures recovered as it gained 0.2 percent bringing hopes up to economic progress. The e-mini futures for the S&P 500 has a lesser impact as it increase by 0.1 percent.
The single currency slid overnight following the announcement of ECB forecast to ease inflation but did not talked to tune down the massive bond-buying campaign pushing bond yields to multi-month lows. Its effect in the global investment market can not be defined as it represents just 2.5 percent of world GDP.
Countries, Italy and Qatar decided to maintain their deal regarding close integration on economy and finances. Even the decision of some Arab Countries along with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates is to break diplomatic, travel and trade agreement with Qatar.
The consensus was succeeded by a meeting between Italian Economy Minister Pier Carlo Padoan and Qatari Finance Minister Ali Sherif Al-Emadi held in Rome on Monday.
The two countries said in a joint statement that they discussed the ties in a very friendly atmosphere in accordance with its outstanding relationships on economics and politics
The visit of Al-Emadi in Italy is part of the leaders European tours, hence he will also go to Berlin, London, Paris, and Washington.
The sovereign states of Arab which include Saudi and UAE ended its agreement with Qatar in the past week, they believe that Doha supports the finances of Iran together with other Islamist groups, but Doha refuted this accusation. While al-Elmadia stated earlier on Monday that his country is able to protect its economy against these charges.
In an interview with CNBC, he further mentioned that those countries that inflicted such sanction have the tendency to lose money due to the damage it wrought in the business sector of the region.
"A lot of people think we're the only ones to lose in this ... If we're going to lose a dollar, they will lose a dollar also," the leader added.
The Bank of Finland forecast data shows the growth of Finlands economy as exports recuperated gains although it still needed reform to enhance development and stronger public finances. This growth is marked as a big progress following a decade state in hiatus state due to various economic and business problems. The GDP progress is anticipated to improve by 2.1 percent in 2017 which is higher than the former forecast of 1.6 percent in March. In the previous year, the GDP grew by 1.4 percent.
Amid the steady growth of exports, the economic growth still depends on the private consumption and investment and will further progress when the employment condition gets better to support an increase in purchasing power. Hence, the center-right government has lessened expenditures and eased labor laws yet the central bank sees the need other strategies to boost the current and future growth.
Financiers from Germany shows confidence towards the recovery of the Euro region, however, the UK economy is not lucky enough to gain a stronger stance. Since the economic condition of the Great Britain fell off this year, along with its prospects, based on the data from the ZEW think tank, as the European economic research institute conducted a poll for almost 200 investors.
The margin came higher for the UK compared with other economies mentioned in the survey, because German capitalists are disappointed with the latest economic status. It appeared that more than 63 percent of the respondents predicted that the situation will get even worse during the second half of 2017 which is the highest ratio versus other nations involved in the poll.
According to headline ZEQ indicator, the projections for the German economy had declined comparatively reaching 18.6. While the presumptions for the euro zone was raise to 37.7 versus other confidence indices like PMI and Ifo. The reading of the ZEW headline was keep restrained below the average level which started in 1991.
Credit card losses will most likely increase in volume in the United States and all over the industry especially to JPMorgan Chase & Co. as mentioned by Gordon Smith, the head of the banks consumer businesses during the conference held on Tuesday.
U.S. banks are being objective in their policy decision on whether to tighten credit policies and it is not far that most lenders within the financial sector are inclined to impose a stricter credit card lending standards instead of attenuating it.
JPMorgan earnings are seen to have increased in sales volume but declining credit trend that is still similar to other lending institutions. It is forecasted as shown in the Fitch ratings report that this will persist in the next few quarters because of the rising trend in loan growth pushed by lower credit rates. However, Smith said that there is no need to get distressed over this matter as this is already expected after some time of low loss rates in the past and is now approaching the end of the cycle.
May Appoints Political Opponent as Junior Minister
UK Prime Minister Theresa May has recently appointed a leading anti-EU Tory campaigner as a junior Brexit minister following unrest within the PMs team of officials assigned to work on the Brexit negotiations a mere week before the actual start of the said negotiations. The newly-appointed official was identified as Steve Baker, who used to be UKs chairman of Conservatives. Baker has also led a group of Tory lawmakers which aims to hold the UK government against a complete separation from the European Union.
June 19, 2017
Aussie Economy can Grow Further, says Philip Lowe
RBA Governor Philip Lowe thinks that the Australian economy will still be able to grow further if the countrys officials will be able to overcome several political hurdles, although he also warned that disappointing wage gains data will most likely to continue plaguing developed countries. Lowe also stated that the central bank believes that the countrys economic growth will continue advancing during the next two years due to an overall surge in the status of the international economy. The political environment within Australia has become more and more polarized over the years, as parties attempted to gain an unfair electoral advantage from losing reform proposals. This has prevented the Australian economy to properly implement any kind of economic reform since 2000s goods and services tax.
Positive Economic Feelings of Americans, No Help For Trump, CNBC says
The American economy remains optimistic as shown in the All-America Economic Survey by CNBC, along with some leading components reaching its highest level, however, this optimism does not help the president.
The poll shows that 800 U.S. citizens or 30 percent of the populace believe that the economy is in upbeat as of this moment until the future. It's the highest percentage recorded in the past two successive quarters amid survey's 10-year history.
There are 54 percent who think that house price will surge in 2018 and 44 percent who deems that their earnings will further rose for the following year. The stocks as well demonstrated a positive stance as there were 44 percent assumed that this period is a time for good investment
However, the positive tone of Trumps economy does not contribute much help towards the approval rating of the states leader which showed a 37 percent decline based on the recent survey versus 39 percent result in April. President D. Trumps approval on the economy is down to 41 percent and 44 percent in April. Moreover, negative factors may arise driven by various groups particularly laborers such as blue collar, independents, and retirees.
As the public has split belief, the poll found that quarter of the United States economy is becoming better due to policies adopted by the president. On one side, there are 22 percent who said that his plans worsen the country.
Positive Data Buoys Up Japanese Factory Sector's Confidence
Japanese manufacturers confidence rating rallied this month reaching the record level high in April and it is anticipated to further increase in succeeding months indicating according to the poll of Reuters. This is an indicator of economic recovery.
The mood of service industry also surged to a two-year high implication of improving confidence even though it is contradicting to the survey of Reuters Tankan which described credence to be declining in the next three months.
Most indicators and business activity indicated positive data on exports and factory production but the wage growth and household expenditure have slow growth amid tightening job market.
This prompted the central bank to keep its monetary policy unchanged on Friday while the private consumption increased for the first time within six months as the economy gains momentum particularly exports.
The EU bloc dominated the first round of Brexit negotiations as UK officials cowered and retreated as EUs chief negotiator cautioned that the British government will be dealing with substantial consequences should they chose to completely remove themselves from the union. UK PM Theresa May has already consented to the EUs terms and conditions during the first day of the talks, although they have yet to discuss the trade deals between the European common market and Britain. However, EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier warned the UK bloc that this process would be a slow and arduous one, a complete antitheses to Mays hopes of a quick conclusion to the free trade agreement between the two blocs.
Sluggish Growth of Eurozones Business Sector in Q2
Business growth in the eurozone did not meet expectations as it approaches the end of the first half this year after the unexpected sluggish growth of the service enterprises, according to the survey on Friday. Nevertheless, the inflation and the overall remains considerably strong which will most likely be sustained by policymakers of the central bank of Europe to balance out and return to its dovish stance.
The PMI data showed a 0.7 percent GDP growth for the second quarter that has exceeded the 0.5 percent forecast of Reuters earlier this June. In the previous quarter, it grew a corrected figure of 0.6 percent growth.
However, companies focused on the service industry has weakened. The services PMI dropped to 54.7 from 56.3, significantly lower than the predictions of economists surveyed. On the other hand, the manufacturing sector PMI rose to 57.3 from 57.0 reaching more than six-year high.
Theresa May Offered Fair and Serious Rights on EU Citizens
Theresa May, British Prime Minister of Britain, said to the leaders of European Union that EU citizens who came legally prior Brexit happenings are authorized to stay in Britain giving them a new settled status provided that they have spent five years living in the UK.
PM May had spoke concurrently as the dinners end during the EU leaders' summit held in Brussels, stating that the United Kingdom agreed to deal with the cutoff point between March 29 of the current year, the date when she formally invoke Article 50, until the preferred period of the European Commission until March 2019.
This is the opening offer of May for the future citizen rights. Both nations, UK and EU wants to iron out the issue during earlier negotiations
European citizens who are part of this special status can acquire the same rights when it comes to NHS care, pensions and work along with other public services that British people have.
May mentioned in an interview with The Guardian that "The UK's position represents a fair and serious offer, and one aimed at giving as much certainty as possible to citizens who have settled in the UK, building careers and lives and contributing so much to our society,"
According to the report, the offer is dependent on the reciprocal pledge regarding the privilege of 1.5 million UK citizens who are presently residing somewhere in Europe had failed to reach its target with the EUs demand in maintaining the continuity of the entire EU rights. But, the British country did not accept the demand of EU to grant the European Court of Justice to take the role as the guarantor.
ECB President Mario Draghi argued in a statement last Monday that the central banks efforts to maintain the unions low interest rates has actually helped to taper off inequality rates within the eurozone and minimize unemployment rates. In a conference at a Lisbon university, Draghi stressed that the easy-money stance of the central bank has helped to curb the highly-destabilizing inequality levels in the EU, although several German officials in the past have repeatedly questioned this easy-money stance, as this apparently endangers pensioners and savers. This statement from Draghi comes at a very delicate time for the central bank as the ECB is now in the process of halting certain policies, including its negative interest rate program and its 2.3 trillion or $2.6 trillion bond-buying scheme.
Sluggish Growth Prediction for Developed Countries
A U.S. central banker forewarned that advanced economies and financial institutions in the United States will face a slower economic growth for long-term unless fiscal officials do something to counter this. Although, this comes surprisingly since the Federal Reserve just increased its interest rates earlier this month and intend to do more rate hikes gradually to prevent overheating of the economy. This also indicates positive growth of the economic outlook.
Federal Reserve president John Williams said that this optimism will only last for short-term and will change over time. With the sluggish growth, this gives a hard time for monetary policymakers to curb inflation and sustain full employment. This leaves the central bank with no choice but to rate hike since low growth trims the demand for investment and further push down the interest rates.
US President Donald Trump and Indias Prime Minister Narendra Modi had clinched the deal in intensifying the economic partnership between the two countries, India and United States. The agreement resulted in a win-win scenario for the two economies and resolving the diverging opinions in a peaceful approach.
Following the maiden meeting between Trump and Modi held at the White House, the Foreign Secretary of Indian Dr. S Jaishankar, told the reporters that the two parties had productive talks. Both countries are having changes in its economy that generates further demands and reaching the high-level comfort among the two nations, the other partner is suitable to satisfy such demands.
Jaishankar mentioned that the civil aviation market along with natural gas cooperations have said that Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) coming from the US will begin to run to the Republic of India
It is anticipated that after many years, the LNG trade between Ind-US will exceed its amount of USD 40 billion, he added.
According to a joint statement of India and US, they are committed to strengthening their economic ties in order to build a stronger nation and successful citizens.
The International Monetary Fund watered down its economic outlook for the United States due to the high level of risk regarding the plans of current president Donald Trump in boosting growth in the economy. According to their forecast, U.S will gain an annual rate of 2.1 percent for this year which is a positive increase compared with 1.6 percent recorded in 2016, however, it is comparatively lower to 2.3 percent estimate on April.
The Washington-based organization also cut its forecast for 2018 saying that the country will have a hard time in reaching the 3 percent target determined in the first budget of the president. The latest growth numbers are part of the annual review made by the IMF to the American economy which is released on June 27. Report says the forecast was trimmed down because it was clearly stated that various parts regarding the expenditure project and administration tax are still ambivalent.
With these concerns, the institution said that the final decision is made in order to abate any assumptions concerning the programs of Trump will get the Congress approval and rather to work with predictions that ongoing policies will remain consistent.
Based on IMFs projections, the yearly GDP growth is 2.1 percent for 2017 and 2018 and this will decrease by 1.9 percent by 2019 while in the year 2020 it will only reach 1.8 percent.
There is a tendency for the European Central Bank to raise its inflation rate this month as shown in the data released on Friday because of the weak oil prices that influence the decline of the consumer prices in the succeeding months. The central bank is pressing to boost prices after it has failed to reach its target over the past four years despite its consequences to attain the two percent target at a long period of time.
Meanwhile, the 2 percent target has been lowered to 1.3 percent from the 1.4 percent target in the previous month but it is still above the market expectations of 1.2 percent. The central bank is already implementing the stimulus through massive asset buying and low-interest rates to counter sluggish price growth and encourage borrowing and spending that could lead to inflation. However, the ECB president Mario Draghi tightened its monetary policies implying that improved conditions essentially provides more accommodation.
Delay in Implementation of Bank Capital Rules in Singapore
The banking regulator in Singapore has announced the extension of the execution of global rules for a year to curb trading risks which in signifies a post-crisis overhaul of the global banking system to be interrupted.
Other countries such as Hong Kong and Australia followed postponement in the same manner as there is a rising concern regarding the complexity of rules. Also, this is yet to be settled on how this will match with other capital reforms.
Oil improved after a sharp decline and both of the European stocks and bonds were in the red on Thursday as the market awaits for the ECB minutes. This would determine the next actions of the central bank. Although, the Fed Reserve showed mixed signals on Wednesday. Bond yields climbed higher again as the benchmark of U.S. Treasuries rose more than 2.34 percent which increased the global borrowing rates.
The market was caught in between the ambiguous results from FOMC minutes and the U.S. employment statistics on Friday. The beginning of G20 summit has been the center of attention after the long-range missile test this week launched by the North Korea.
The economy of China could possibly weaken once again in the second quarter of 2017, slowed down by the slight tightening of the monetary policy of the government polled by China economists, Nikkei and Nikkei Quick News.
Most of the respondents mentioned that the property market failed to advance unlike before and pointed out that the economic decline will become more evident from July to the end of December.
As indicated in the survey, the average estimate of the economists for the gross domestic product of China will rose by 6.8% in Q2 this year, with marginal easing from the expansion on first quarter at 6.9%. The official figures are scheduled to be release on July 17.
Report Claims UK Economy will Boost to £43bn by 2025
The financial industry of the United Kingdom would likely support an increase of £43bn in its economy in the year 2025 based on the study of the TheCityUK and PricewaterhouseCooper.
As indicated in a blueprint report issued on Thursday, the City Council coupled with professional services company deemed that progress can be obtained through various changes on the government and other regulations.
The UK finance sector is already aware to further challenging factors that could lead many international banks to withdraw their transactions from London after the British decision to the leave the European Union.
The reports indicate a role expansion for some national and regional financial centers of the countries outside London, together with a new visa program that allows only the most excellent and brightest among the industry to operate in Britain.
When adjustments were successfully done, the report provides an outlook of value on GDP which will rose an amount of £16bn to £43bn by 2025.
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The economic leaders of the European Union held a meeting on Monday in Brussels, citing that euro countries with huge growth to heighten spending. This is an attempt to convince Germany to step up its public expenditure and to bolster its economic bloc.
Germany is anticipated to grow by 1.8 percent this 2017, as indicated in the estimate of the International Monetary Fund, while the trade surplus continued to rise.
The stable development of the German economy was linked with the same advancement in government expenditure with a 0.8 percent record on fiscal surplus in 2016.
A group of finance ministers was going to discuss at their monthly meeting about the fiscal stance of the EU in 2018 since some urged to influence the budgetary decisions of the 19 EU-member states.
The effort of the European Commission to make a slight development on fiscal policy for the entire euro area within this year was fulfilled by the German opposition, however, dropped afterward.
Prior the discussion on the 2018 policy, the Economics Commissioner Pierre Moscovici claimed that the logical basis of fiscal stimulus remains despite firm growth in the euro area.
July 11, 2017
Emerging Markets and Bonds Selloff Continues
The U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen reached a four-month high while both the bonds and the emerging market currencies are under pressure once again on Tuesday. There are looking for higher interest rates in expanding number of major economies.
There are higher expectations as the MSCI world index is steadily progressing as it rose for a third day although it declined after the Europe stock market dropped. This staggered as the bonds yields from euro zone continued its uptrend in March but halted on Monday as the market turned its attention to the monetary tightening of large economies globally.
The Federal Reserve aims to adjust the large collection of bonds to ease the financial crises where speeches were given on Wednesday while the both the ECB and BoE officials are scheduled to talk on Tuesday. They are divided on whether to proceed with a rate hike yet the overnight index swaps market are priced high and 80 percent probability for a second rate hike by the end of the year.
The Switzerlands private financial institution Falcon now stores and trade bitcoins through their cash holdings as it was proffered an affiliation with cryptocurrency broker Bitcoin Suisse. They are deemed to be the primary in the private banking to provide blockchain asset management for clients in Swiss according to the global chief of Falcon.
The Zurich-based bank has dealt with a Malaysian corruption scandal and this expansion of services is part of their strategic repositioning. Their bitcoin services is being regulated by the Swiss Financial FINMA.
Even though more investors are still dubious in bitcoins, this reflects that the virtual currency is developing amid a slow-paced asset management environment but has the potential to contend for gold and state-issued money in value.
The South Koreas central bank kept its base rate steady, for the 13th consecutive month on Thursday, with a record low of 1.25 percent. The decision was mainly anticipated since policy committee urge to expand the subdued personal consumption and hold the idea of tightening off the table at this moment.
The policy makers of the central bank of Korea retained its key rate KROCRT=ECI unchanged, stated by a media official without any additional details. Bank Governor, Lee Ju-yeol is scheduled to conduct a press con at 11:20 a.m. (0220 GMT).
Reuters polled 20 economists and all of them predicted that the BOK will stick to its position, underlining the sluggish stance on consumer expenditure coupled with the lackluster growth in employment taking some of the shine off constant profits from exports.
Most of the experts assumed that the bank will keep on hold until the year end and expects for some step to stabilize rates for 2018.
The consumer price inflation of the country had toned down from the 2.2 percent highs in March to 1.9 percent recorded in June, the result is marginally low against the 2 percent target of the bank.
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Fed Chair Janet Yellen said on Thursday that the 3 percent target of the current administration of Trump is quite challenging to cope with.
US President Donald Trump pledged during his campaign in 2016 to improve the economic growth by 4 percent, however, the officials trimmed it down to 3 percent and claimed that it might take some time to complete.
Moreover, Yellen mentioned that is "very disappointing," and gave a forewarning that the potential growth of the American economy is now lowered to 2 percent. The chairwoman was asked if it's still possible for the country to gain its three percent goal in the next five years and she answered, "I think it would be quite challenging."
She further stated that higher growth rate requires a great increase in productivity growth which is currently at 0.5 percent, hence, an extreme surge is needed to accelerate and at least few points are regarded as significant.
During the second day of her semi-annual testimony, she said to the Senate Banking Committee that the 3 percent expansion would be wonderful and shed love to witness it.
The incumbent Chair of the Board is scheduled to end her term on February 3, 2018, if President Trump did not reappoint her for another 4-year term.
Yellen also underlined the things that hamper productivity growth which is related to the dilemma of company reports about looking for qualified laborer, emphasizing the urgency to focus on training worker and further education.
The European Central Bank is in the process of curbing inflation to attain the two percent inflation target but ECB policy maker Francois Villeroy de Galhau pointed that a monetary easing is still needed. He said that the risk of deflation has been cleared despite the fact the target inflation is still a long way to go. Thus, he concluded that an accommodative monetary policy implying that their decision is relative to the economic condition of the economy moving towards the target rate.
One of the top central banks stated that the interest rates of the Reserve Bank of Australia will set to be kept at a record low for some time but some hawks push the currency to drop from a two-year peak. The rate hike was canceled out following the increase of interest rate to 0.75 percent in the previous week according to the deputy governor of Australia. She noted that the RBA doesnt need to raise their rates when other central banks in the world did which opposes the recovery of the Australian currency after a rise in mining investment for a decade halted. The development of the world economy may be beneficial for the country but it works against the currency.